USA will fragment into quarantined city states
Because there is not a coherent federal policy in terms of lock downs and containment efforts, each state and city will recover at different rates. My hypothesis is that the places that took aggressive containment efforts early will flatten the curve and recover faster and be able to reopen economic activity before the patient (the economy) dies on the operating table. The states that have resisted the bitter medicine and are still in denial will be suffering prolonged and devastating consequences that will make Iran and Italy look like a walk in the park. I truly have pity for them. The suffering is going to be unimaginable. So in a month the nation will have certain states moving out of their peak infection period and succeeding in containment efforts and returning to “normal” as other states will just be entering the upward trajectory of infections doubling if not tripling the amount of time they will have to lock down. I am talking about Florida and Georgia etc being incapacitated until the Summer if not longer. It is conceivable some of these states will abandon containment all together and just let the infection spread and let people die, at least for a time, until bodies literally start piling up on the streets and they realize this will shutter economic activity even more severely than containment because their healthcare system will be crippled and people will self contain on their own out of fear and terror. In order to preserve economic activity in those cities/states that have contained the virus it will be necessary to isolate them from cities / states that are infected. We will have no choice but to seal off all the blue states from the red states or what would be the point of all our sacrifices if CA recovers and some nimrod from Florida who wanted to party at the beach and ignored the threat travels to LA to infect the state all over again? We will be looking a lot like Ancient Greece in a fragmented country of quarantined city states. I don’t see, short of a miraculous treatment or cure materializing, how this plays out any other way unfortunately.
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