I need some help understanding

[boston bean]

MA and NY have been in shutdown for over two weeks.

How can the worst be yet to come? I believe them but why?

Shouldn’t there be less dying? I just can’t understand why it is going to get worse for two months when we are social distancing.

Are there that many people in these states not doing it?

[brush]

1. Because of the scarcity of test kits, there's no way to know how many are infected.

With testing those infected are isolated and treated and their contacts are tracked who are then isolated and treated if infected. And then all of their contacts.

All that hasn't been done because of the inept administration doesn't seem to know how to just concentrate on GETTING PEOPLE TESTED.

[boston bean]

3. But shouldn't those people who had it stopped spreading due to the shut down?

Or have had it and recovered but spread less due to the shut down? It has been over two weeks.

[brush]

4. They've had weeks to spread it. We're seeing the results of that.

[BigmanPigman]

2. It is more contagious than people think/thought

and too many people haven't really been social distancing properly. Also family members and friends are spreading it despite social distancing. Finally, we should have been wearing masks and gloves for 2 months. Don't forget most people haven't been tested and the majority of the few tests are backlogged so the numbers are unrealistically low.

[beachbumbob]

5. people are still ignoring the issue, people are still working, gatheringand the spread will continue

[janterry]

6. There is usually a three week lag time as well

so, you get sick. You manage your symptoms for about a week at home. Then things get bad and you need to be hospitalized.

So, even with very good 'distancing' - there is a lag time

[KY_EnviroGuy]

7. There's still a lot of people in denial of the danger everywhere.

Here in north central KY, there's still idiots having parties and unwarranted crowding in our stores even though our governor is pounding their asses to follow the rules.

In essence, it's taking a long time for many Americans to accept that yes, once in a while in their lives, they must be obedient to the law regardless of what Limbaugh or their preacher says.

I suspect for some, a few of their own family members must die to get them out of denial.......

[canetoad]

12. Hi-5 Bro

In denial without a clue how insidious the infection process can be.

[Squinch]

8. I saw something a while back that might explain it. It said the greatest spread

was among family groups. Maybe the isolation slowed the spread between families but sped up the spread within families, which presumably was going to happen anyway.

Maybe we have to burn through that phase before the deaths reduce.

The new case percentages have slowed quite a bit in NY. Though the numbers are still appalling.

And PS where I live in NY people are distancing well.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

18. I truly feel sympathy for those living in crowded apartment buildings....

in our cities where it's difficult to go out except through narrow hallways and stairwells. In addition to families often living in small apartments, they have an additional hazard in that way, which those of us in single-family homes do not.

That also increases mental and emotional stress, as well as making people fearful of their neighbors.

[Squinch]

19. I'm in an apartment outside NYC. So far only one of my neighbors had it, though

we are next door to a hospital and quite close to a big epicenter.

I am actually a bit comforted to know that my neighbors are just beyond my walls, and because my building is "H" shaped, I can chat with some neighbors across the courtyard.

But yes. Through my job, I am in video contact with large numbers of people. Those with families in small spaces have a hard row to hoe. Some are dealing very well, families getting together and having experiences they otherwise wouldn't be able to. Others are having a hard time with the kids and the fear and the confinement.

And still others are sick....

ETA: one of my neighbors had it and recovered. Forgot about that.

[Tanuki]

9. Not everyone can isolate at home (think essential workers), and both

metropolitan N.Y. and Boston areas rely heavily on public transportation for commuting. Many commuters there have no other choice.

[SheltieLover]

13. Very true

And I wonder if there will be a surge after that large gathering to see tge Comfort arrive. I sure hope not! 💔

[Croney]

10. I'm in MA, and I asked those same questions today.

Who and where are these (mostly old) people who are dying? They weren't running around on the subway. Are they in assisted living places, or already hospitalized with other illnesses and they got Covid in the hospital?

We are holed up in Cambridge, we are old, and staying away from our kids and grandkids. But my husband goes once a week to buy food, so the risk is there no matter how careful he is.

[canetoad]

11. Timing BB

People can be without symptoms for between 5 and 17 days. At the end of a 14 day lockdown, there will still be folk walking around, without being aware they carry the virus and spreading it to several others, who in turn spread to several others.

[lunasun]

14. Plus this

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213206432

[pwb]

15. Fox news lag? Their viewers are at least a month behind.

Their lies are killing people now. Without fox talkers lies this would be on the down side now.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

16. Deaths lag. Spreading has not stopped. Shutdown is not total. Many are not doing it.

US case load is slowing down a bit. Doubling every 3.5 days (guesstimate) instead of every 2.5 like it was for a week. But the death rate increase is not yet. It is still a straight line on logarithmic (log) charts, meaning continued exponential growth.

But deaths lag. It takes 1 to 14 days for symptoms to appear. Then after that it takes something like 10 days for the average death to occur (not sure of exact figure). Some people don't go easily and succumb after fighting it in ICU for 3 weeks.

I expect the peak infection rate in NYC in a day or two or three. (I don't really know, of course, ... nobody knows for sure). But the death rate will continue to grow for some time, piling up deaths. Peak in NY state might be several days later. Peak infection rate country-wide will be at least a week from now and perhaps two or more.

But the death rate peak will be 10 days or two weeks later.

Go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ and click the logarithmic option on the Italy Cases and Deaths charts. To my eye, the case rate began flattening around March 16. But the death rate didn't budge from a straight line until about March 29, which is almost 2 weeks later.

The doctors and epidemiologists know that's how it works. That's why flattening the curve is so important, because the peak approaches and comes down on areas like a hammer.

They told tRump, many times over.

But, because his re-election is involved, he refused to believe them and tried to tweet it away.

[gibraltar72]

17. As an example when I started tracking my state

Kits were so valuable they could only test those with every symptom. They were coming back with roughly 1.2 positives for every two tests. Governor knew we were in deep trouble even tough confirmed cases were quite small at that time. Testing is still lacking but you can see the numbers. Contact tracking helps but only a little. They can't trace everything you touched or coughed on.