Number of deaths per million in world's leading countries...

[BigmanPigman]

Italy....243
Spain...240
France...100
Belium...99
Holland...87

USA...22

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is up to date for today.

[John Fante]

1. If the 100k estimate turns out to be correct, that would put the United States

at just over 300 deaths per million.

200k dead would put us over 600. We would have the most per capita deaths by far. Safe to say this would be the biggest preventable tragedy in American history.

[onenote]

2. That assumes the number of fatalities in Italy and Spain suddenly drop off

[Bucky]

4. I understand Italy has "rounded the curve" in its new infections count...

...and that Spain is just behind Italy by a couple of days. So, yes, their mortality numbers will not increase that much more.

The U.S. is about two weeks away from hitting our peak infection growth rate. Some smaller states won't hit their peak until early May. Hopefully they will start taking shelter in place directions now, to reduce their final count.

The last tracking projections I've seen put our mortality count in the 90,000 - 170,000 range. if you share my obsession with demographic morbidity, you can look at the website yourself


https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Interestingly, when they released the report on March 27th, a week ago, the projected range was 50k - 160k deaths. So as data comes in they keep revising the estimates. And those estimates keep rising upward.

[onenote]

9. Spain had 850 deaths today. 100 less than yesterday, but 100 more than Tuesday.

They'll hit 300 per million with only 2800 more deaths.

[John Fante]

5. I doubt they'll get to 600/per million.

I don't think the US will hit that number either. I hope not.

[BigmanPigman]

3. Yep...we are so fucked.

Half the countey doesn't see what is about to slam them.

[John Fante]

6. A stupid right-winger was just bragging about that 22 figure

on Facebook. What these morons don't realize is that number was less that 1 not even two weeks ago. By this time next week the number will be over 50. Maybe when Texas and Florida get slammed they'll finally get it, but I won't hold my breath.

We're completely fucked.

[dpibel]

7. South Korea...2.95

Same population, same GDP as Italy. So seems like it belongs on your list as much as Italy does.

[BigmanPigman]

8. Whatever they did we should do NOW,

it isn't too late!

[Igel]

11. Yeah, it is.

You can't test those showing symptoms + all those who might be infected, quarantine those who are infected and do contact tracing on each of them. No country could at this point.

With small numbers, knowing the groups affected, you can. And you can rely on the small numbers to make it so the asymptomatic case load can stay small and driven to zero.

You get this many people, spread out, infected--you can't test that many million a day, you can't hire 20 million people to do contact tracing on that many people in a country this large. And you certainly can't do contact tracing in any real sense on the dead.

[GusBob]

10. This is basic epidemiological stuff