Trump's Approval Hits New High, But A Rally-Around-The-Flag Effect Is Small

[Demovictory9]

Regardless, the 3-point increase in his approval rating so far is not much of a bump, certainly not the kind of increase other presidents have seen in other rally-around-the-flag moments, pollsters say.

"We're seeing although his numbers have inched up, it's still roughly in his zone of support," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducts polling for NPR. "Look, he's not getting the rally-around-the-president [effect] that presidents in crisis have gotten."

Largely — as has been the case for the entirety of his presidency — Trump's approval and handling of the pandemic are split sharply along party lines. Overwhelming numbers of Republicans approve, and overwhelming numbers of Democrats don't.

"Certainly, there's no bounce — it's very minimal," Miringoff said. "It's all playing out depending on the filter people have. The partisan split is as wide as can be. I don't think it's something that reflects a president who is about to break 50% [approval] for the first time."

Historical rally-around-the-flag bounces

Partisanship did not begin in the Trump era.

Its sharp rise appears to have taken hold during the Obama years. That's evident by how little former President Barack Obama's approval fluctuated once his honeymoon period was over and legislation aimed at combating the Great Recession was passed.

According to data from the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center, George W. Bush after 9/11 and before the Iraq War, George H.W. Bush before the Gulf War, Ronald Reagan during the Grenada military action and the Marine barracks bombing in Lebanon, and Jimmy Carter at the outset of the Iran hostage crisis all saw much bigger rally-around-the flag approval bounces than either Trump (so far) or Obama.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/27/822043781/trumps-approval-hits-new-high-but-a-rally-around-the-flag-effect-is-small

[ProfessorGAC]

1. Consistent With What I Thought

Just this morning, I posted an opinion that this wasn't that impressive a bump in a national crisis.
Nice to see that I have allies in the analyst community.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13182899

[The Magistrate]

2. My View As Well, Sir

I will go read your comments now.

[Freddie]

3. When the Gulf War started

Bush the Elder was so popular I recall editorials saying why should anyone bother to run against him in 92.
This is like 9/11 except for the “country all getting together” part.

[Arkansas Granny]

4. His approval has hit a new high, but he's still underwater.

It still worries me that so many people think he's doing a good job. I don't know what the country would look like if we had to endure another 4 years of Trump.