From an epidemiologist:

[kpete]

From this post:
https://www.eschatonblog.com/2020/03/quiet.html#comment-4847901331

This is from someone in my synagogue:

I am sharing this message from a well-respected epidemiologist and, remember, that the family unit is only as strong as its weakest link. As an infectious disease epidemiologist at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and people will die that didn’t have to. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. We know what will happen; I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying around you. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc..), the epidemic trajectory isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.

In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.

https://www.eschatonblog.com/2020/03/quiet.html#comment-4847901331

[samplegirl]

1. Never thought I'd have to FaceTime

my grandkids. But happy for that!☹️

[enough]

2. It's what we intuitively sense, but all our social instincts push in the other direction.

Thanks for posting, this will be more and more needed as the going gets rough.

[misanthrope]

3. Meanwhile, on the ruby red Gulf Coast

A doctor from the Mississippi coast sent this letter to a Mobile, Alabama newspaper:


To the editor-

One of the courses I took in medical school included epidemiology in the use of statistical analysis of past events to determine cause and effect. I do not remember ever having a concept of the epidemiologist attempting to treat a population of people during an event in which the statistical analysis was not available. I believe at this time we are looking at an experiment in epidemiology in which we are attempting to determine the outcome of an experiment prior to the experiment being analyzed appropriately.

The consequence of this experiment is frightening to say the least. We are shutting down all of the usual activities in this country at great expense to the taxpayer and to the small business entrepreneur who has lost control of his productivity, income and ability to pay employees. The danger at this time is a large number of small businesses going into bankruptcy with the loss of the general productivity of the United States of America since small businesses provide most of the jobs in this country.

I certainly believe that recognizing the generally accepted concepts of cleanliness, sterilization, hand-washing and self-isolation of the sick is appropriate. The problem has to do primarily with the concept that is unproven that all of these things we are doing that are destructive to our way of life have some benefit. The decisions to change our behaviors doesn’t seem to be favorable to the overall quality life of Americans and others. The consequences of changing behavior of the general population versus that of the consequences of this virus have not been carefully observed.

The entire country is in panic mode with fear and anxiety the modus of the day. We have unbelievable runs on the grocery stores in the hoarding of food products and paper goods as if something is occurring that will cause us to lose food sources. Money is being allocated by families that was not intended and, certainly in the lower economic population, is critical to economic well-being.

In our state we have one patient who has been identified with a positive test out of approximately 2.5 million people.* The family of this virus has been known since 1955 when Dr. William Mogabgab identified this family of the common cold virus. This virus typically resolves with increased environmental temperature and increased relative humidity. Treatment modalities are the same today as they were in the 1800s: fresh air, sunlight, environmental protection, sterilization and hand-washing. The SARS and MER viruses each killed less than 1,000 people worldwide and died out in short order.

We are assuming that this virus is not going to go away in the heat of the summer and we are busy, going about attempting to protect ourselves using techniques that have absolutely no statistical validation. Of course, epidemiology is attempting to pinpoint cause and effect statistically, which is their job. I’m not adverse to collecting data in searching for correctable features of any epidemic, pandemic or individual illnesses. Once again, my concern has to do with the consequences of the virus versus the consequences of the data collection and disturbance in the way of life.

It may sound harsh, but every year in the wintertime there is the harvesting by Mother Nature of the most vulnerable in our populations. We recognize a recurrent history of the world in which kill-offs occur and that we have little to do to prevent them when they happen. Floods, volcanos, drug overdoses, influenza, pneumonia, starvation … and many other environmental difficulties occur periodically, creating harvesting of the most vulnerable. Tried-and-true methods of prevention include thorough hand-washing with soap and water, fresh air, sunlight, a stable environment and the protection of the individuals who are at risk.

Eighty to 90 percent of those who contract this virus, in any age group, will have a mild or moderate case or no symptoms at all, get well and will develop antibodies that contribute to the resistance among the general population, which is perhaps better than a vaccine. I do not see this as a governmental agency prerogative to essentially frighten the population into panic mode in an effort to have the government involve itself in the epidemiology of this particular virus. I believe the government efforts at this time are counterproductive and the consequence of the government’s behavior is going to contribute to long-term effects of this pandemic, which most likely will disappear in the warm days of the summer anyway.

The huge economic consequences will last far into the future and be responsible for far more dire consequences physically, mentally and socially throughout the general population than the actual pandemic. We have had several pandemics throughout world history and many in just the last 100 years. (Look up the history of pandemics online.) We have never responded to this degree before. Will this be the response every time we have a new epidemic or pandemic arise? We don’t do this yearly for influenza, which infects and kills far more people in this country. If we did, we would have no economic stability — ever!

Experts don’t even know if these extreme isolation measures will actually have the hoped for effect. We do know absolutely that we need a functioning society. We need our jobs, schools, large and small businesses, transportation, commerce and tourism. All the things we depend on for survival. To think the Government is capable of protecting everyone from the damaging effects of this whole situation is just not realistic. The economic and personal ramifications of that are far too serious and widespread.

All of this for an illness that is 80-90 percent mild to moderate in those who get it? This generalized shutdown needs to end very soon to get the economy functioning again. Only people most at risk due to their own situations should practice the rigid isolation measures being imposed on the general population right now. Those who are less vulnerable can do much to help those in their families and communities who need to avoid exposure to the virus. Thus, we can get through this without all the collateral damage that is occurring now.

*on the date this was published, Mississippi had 377 confirmed COVID-19 patients, far more than the 1 the doctor stated.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

5. Absolutely sickening to read. IMO, he should give up his license to practice.

Not only did he make numerous statements that are contrary to compassionate health care, he made many statements which as a scientist, he should have provided references to back them.

However, that would be a problem for him. None of it has credible references because it's all right-wing political bullshit.

It's a free country and everyone has the right to speak their mind, but when professionals say things in public media that may directly cost lives, there surely are mechanisms for consequences.

KY...

[Crunchy Frog]

7. I want all of the Republicans in Alabama to follow this Doctor's advice.

I make no apologies for these sentiments.

[OhioChick]

10. And to think, this idiot took the Hippocratic Oath n/t

[Sherman A1]

4. While not a scientist of any sort

this retired grocery worker figured this out early on. It is a shame that so many haven't wrapped their heads around it.

Today I watched kids on Spring break playing basketball down the street and just shook my head. This evening across the street I see the folks have friends over for a BBQ and next door to them I see extended family visiting with big hugs as greetings. I want to bang my head against the wall looking out the window.

Just F' ing unbelievable.......

[Ex Lurker]

6. Humans being human

If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with.

This is going to happen and we can't stop it short of the measures China took. Science is great and scientists do vital work, but most of them don't inhabit the real world the rest of us do. The reality is this will keep spreading until most have been exposed. We might have a marginal effect but we won't stop it.

[PCIntern]

8. And even more importantly:

A preposition should never be used to end a sentence with.

[Duppers]

9. This is why

When our neighbor brought us homemade cookies the other day, hubby & I decided not to eat them. Instead, I threw them out for our gang of "pet" squirrels to eat.

Were we being too paranoid, I thought? After all, this man is a dentist and should know the importance of being careful. But after reading this, I'm sure we made the right decision.