The Latest Cook Political Report Electoral College Map
First, the headline: Biden starts with a slight lead in the Electoral College math. Right now, 232 electoral votes sit in Lean/Likely or Solid Democrat. On the GOP side, 204 electoral votes are in the Lean/Likely/Solid Republican column. There are six states (and one congressional district) in Toss-Up: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska's 2nd district. Those add up to 102 Electoral votes.
To get to 270, Biden can't lose any of the states currently in Lean/Likely/Solid Democrat and has to win 39 percent of the electoral college votes in Toss Up. Trump needs to hold those in the Lean/Likely/Solid Republican columns, plus he needs to win more than two-thirds (66 percent) in the toss-up column.
A lot has happened in the three years that Trump has been president. One thing that hasn't changed is the coalition of voters that support him and that he continues to cater to, and the coalition of voters who dislike him and who Trump often actively disparages. Trump's support among white, non-college voters, older voters and those who live in rural parts of the country remain robust, while white, college-educated voters (especially women), younger voters and voters of color continue to hold negative, or deeply negative views of the job he's doing in office.
The most recent Marist/PBS/NPR poll (3/13-14) found Trump's overall job approval at 43 percent. Among white, non-college voters, almost two-thirds (57 percent), approve of the job he's doing, but just under 40 percent (37 percent) of white voters with a degree think he's doing a good job. Among suburban voters, just 39 percent give the president a positive rating, while 48 percent of those who live in small towns, and 59 percent of those in rural areas approve of the job he's doing in office. Just 31 percent of non-white voters approve of the job the president is doing.
As such, what you will notice about this map that the more diverse the state, and the higher the percentage of white, college voters, the more likely it will be in a Democratic-leaning column. For example, Colorado not only has a significant Latino population, but there are almost as many white college voters in the state (40 percent) as white, non-college voters (41 percent).
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/latest-cook-political-report-electoral-college-map
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