247 deaths from 19,000 cases is about the 1.3%, similar to yesterday's rate. But that is only where

[OnDoutside]

they have tests, and are doing tests, plus where they're not testing, are they putting those deaths down to underlying illness. I fear that by the time the US gets serious about this, that death rate is going to go up significantly, most especially in Red states who are not taking this seriously at all.

Here in Ireland, we are into our second week of Social Distancing, and we won't know how well it's working until the 29th/30th.

March 1 - 1 confirmed

March 5 - 13 confirmed

March 11 - 43 confirmed, 1 death

March 14 - 129 confirmed, 2 deaths

March 19 - 557 confirmed, 3 deaths

March 20 - 683 confirmed, 3 deaths

[jimfields33]

1. Even without tests, people would be dying

I don’t see a huge number of deaths at this point. Like for example we don’t see evidence of 50 unknown deaths in any area of the country.

[jberryhill]

6. It takes time for people to die

See my post below.

There is a common mistake that people make when they figure that the incidence of fatal cases is simply the deaths divided by detected cases.

People don’t drop dead on day one.

[blitzen]

2. See also these charts, which I posted in another thread:

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/coronavirus-growth-in-western-countries-march-20-update/

[evertonfc]

3. 4.1% worldwide and 1.3% in states

I think Italy is an outlier for some reason. Hang in there. I was suppose to take my 18 year old to England for some soccer matches in October and we were going to stop in Ireland. Much love from Music City, USA

[blitzen]

5. See this chart. Italy may be an outlier but Spain is worse.

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/coronavirus-growth-in-western-countries-march-20-update/

[jberryhill]

7. It's only 1.3% because people are sick and haven't died yet

Plus, we are about to go over the cliff of health care capacity.

[evertonfc]

9. ok but it's 1.3 today and 4.3 worldwide today

So, until stats go up- and they may not it's 1.3.So, in other words, the vast majority won't die. Man, you gotta have some hope. Everyone is so doom and gloom.

[jberryhill]

11. Math doesn't care about your feelings

And that’s not how math works.

It’s like the guy jumping off a 100 story building and telling the people on the 50th floor that he feels fine so far.

Jumping off of a building is not fatal. Hitting the pavement a while after the jumping is what kills you.

[Amishman]

10. This thing takes over a week to get from initial symptoms to death

We have a lot of people who are still in the initial stage.

The death rate will go up. When China spiked, their death rate was at 2% and rose as the new wave progressed.

[jberryhill]

4. Not a valid calculation

It’s early to figure an overall percentage. Most cases haven’t resolved yet.

In other words your denominator - total cases - includes cases which have been detected but haven’t died yet. This illness doesn’t resolve in a day.

To help visualize this, imagine I have 10 people who are determined to be sick today with a 100% fatal illness. Now, imagine that every day, for the next ten days, one of them dies. Saying, on day two, “it’s 20% fatal” is simply incorrect. On day five, by your method, it will be 50% fatal, and it will continue to be 10% more fatal each day.

So, of the “total case” figure you are using, it’s simply that many of them haven’t died yet.

[OnDoutside]

12. Actually, I haven't used the words "total cases" at all. Those are just the official numbers that

have been put out there. I'm 100% certain that both the number of infections, and the numbers of deaths, are way higher. I'm just using the official numbers, and all I'm saying is that even on those number, the rate is similar to yesterday. But I absolutely agree that the rate will change as this goes on, and I expect a higher increase in Red States than Blue States, though we may not see that officially if the Red States just are not testing.

[csziggy]

13. You are exactly correct

See sites like this one: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Total confirmed cases: 287,239

Total deaths: 11,921
Total recovered: 89,899

That makes 101,820 cases that are resolved and leaves 185,419 cases that are still in limbo. Maybe some are positive but never got sick but I think there are a significant percentage that are still sick.

The part that worries me is the graph on the bottom right with the yellow line showing the growth of cases in "other locations." Even in the logarithmic version that line is still rising. In China it has flattened out, but not for the rest of world.

[Strelnikov_]

8. Social distancing will work - it's math

Exponential works both ways - exponential increase - exponential decrease - in rate of infection.

Nationwide the US has probably achieved a 50% reduction (or more) in transmission events. Forward looking states like IL, CA, NY, etc. that have closed up everything essential are probably at a 90% reduction or lower. A 75% reduction in possible transmission events by each individual yields a 94% reduction in infection rate for the 'herd'.

Thing is, extreme social distancing is just the first act, hold the line.

The second act, once infection rate is somewhat stabilized, is a hybrid S. Korea/China 'catch and kill' model. Use the testing bullets, along with good public health investigation, to identify, track and isolate carriers and those that are ill, rendering their R0 as close to 0 as possible.

Bottom line, I can foresee an emergency law requiring the name and address of anyone entering an event where uncontrolled airborne transmission (cough, etc. ) can occur (restaurants, church, etc.) to provide the public health aspect the ability to track and notify.

[jberryhill]

14. The problem is...

Give the incubation time, the lag between distancing and the effect will keep most people from thinking it is working.

People are pretty simpleminded and self-centered.

[Strelnikov_]

15. You are right, but we'll have to cross that bridge when we come to it.

That is why we need leadership. Tell people to relax, take a break at home, we'll keep the food and booze coming in, and in four weeks we reboot, start Phase 2.