Scientists warn we may need to live with social distancing for a year or more

[babylonsister]

Scientists warn we may need to live with social distancing for a year or more
Researchers say we face a horrible choice: practice social distancing for months or a year, or let hundreds of thousands die.
By Brian Resnick@[e-mail] Mar 17, 2020, 12:00pm EDT


Life in America — and in many countries around the world — is changing drastically. We’re physically distanced from our favorite people, we’re avoiding our favorite public places, and many are financially strained or out of work. The response to the Covid-19 pandemic is infiltrating every aspect of life, and we’re already longing for it to end. But this fight may not end for months or a year or even more.

We’re in this because public health experts believe social distancing is the best way to prevent a truly horrific crisis: perhaps hundreds of thousands or more if our health care system is overwhelmed with severe Covid-19 cases, people who require ventilators and ICU beds that are now growing limited in supply.

“Some may look at [the guidelines] ... and say, well, maybe we’ve gone a little bit too far,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, at a Monday White House press conference. “They were well thought out. And the thing that I want to reemphasize ... when you’re dealing with an emerging infectious diseases outbreak, you are always behind where you think you are if you think that today reflects where you really are.”

How long, then, until we’re no longer behind and are winning the fight against the novel coronavirus? The hard truth is that it may keep infecting people and causing outbreaks until there’s a vaccine or treatment to stop it.

“I think this idea … that if you close schools and shut restaurants for a couple of weeks, you solve the problem and get back to normal life — that’s not what’s going to happen,” says Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and author of The Rules of Contagion, a book on how outbreaks spread. “The main message that isn’t getting across to a lot of people is just how long we might be in this for.”

more...

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/17/21181694/coronavirus-covid-19-lockdowns-end-how-long-months-years

[evertonfc]

1. Never happen

by that time the virus would have cycled through. A year would see global economic catastrophe and people would see collapse of law, order and to be honest - any resemble of a livable society for many.

[babylonsister]

2. How do you know what this virus will do, and if you do,

would you please share that with the rest of the world?

[evertonfc]

3. you just made my point but I can assure you

self isolation for a year isn't happening.

[Loki Liesmith]

4. The user is correct

Rate of infection guarantees it.

[defacto7]

7. I think your vision is very possible.

Humans won't stay sequestered for more than a certain amount of time. They will give up, venture out and start the cycle of disease all over again. Our only hope, only hope in the long run is a vaccine or a worksble cure. As for society, time is everything.

[VMA131Marine]

9. If the virus cycles through in a year ...

... the number of deaths will be in the tens of millions. The point of social distancing is to reduce the rate of spread so that health care services are not overwhelmed. The conclusion of this study is that relaxing social distancing measures before there is an effective vaccine will just cause the number of cases to spike again.

[ace3csusm]

5. I Dont know about this ...

We have people that have it now and are recovering from it so they built anti-bodies to combat virus...If they get it again they will not have the same effects...

[mwooldri]

6. I expect that:

1. We will have 10 minute at home Covid-19 tests in months.
2. Doctor's will have confirmed a couple of existing drugs treats Covid-19 successfully.
3. There will be a vaccine in a year.

When the whole world is affected this badly, people are going to move quickly on the fix.

[defacto7]

8. I hope you're correct. Hope is good.

[DrToast]

10. Testing is the most important thing

Once we have enough testing we can use selective quarantines to fight outbreaks.

We obviously can't stay locked indoors for a year. At some point we need to begin to live again. That's why we need testing.

[uponit7771]

11. We'll see after Hubie loosens up quarantines

[kentuck]

12. I have always been a loner...

I was a "Social Distancer" before Social Distancing was cool...

[Lisa0825]

13. That depends on what the real goal is...

Is it to prevent as many people as possible from getting sick? Then yes, I believe it would take that long.

But if it is to "flatten the curve" so our health systems can better handle the outbreak, then a shorter period of social distancing may accomplish that.