'Worry about 4 weeks from now,' epidemiologist warns
Harvard’s Lipsitch urges public to ramp up social distancing, increase coronavirus tests
As the U.S. takes early “social distancing” steps, a Harvard epidemiologist is urging the nation to walk away faster, saying there’s danger in ambling down a path similar to Italy, where three coronavirus cases four weeks ago blossomed into 10,000, leading to more than 600 deaths, an overstressed health care system, and a land shuttered.
Epidemiology Professor Marc Lipsitch, head of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, called the pace of coronavirus testing in the U.S. “utterly inadequate” and “a debacle” that robs public health officials of information crucial to devising an effective response and protecting health care workers. Testing has been so slow that no one knows the extent of the U.S. epidemic, though scientists guess at somewhere between “tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands” of cases.
With COVID-19 cases thought to double every five to seven days, their spread can occur rapidly, and it is critical that steps taken so far — canceling business meetings, working from home when possible, moving college classes online, postponing conferences — become more widespread, before circumstances become critical.
“The situation we should be worrying about is the situation four weeks from now, not the situation now,” Lipsitch said. “That’s hard for people to get their heads around, but it’s really important.”
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and even non-essential services. That dotted line on the graph going around is what our heath care system can handle. So you might still get it, but will have a better chance of recovery with a functioning hospital to go to.
If individuals and communities take steps to slow the virus’s spread, that means the number of cases of COVID-19 will stretch out across a longer period of time. As the curve shows, the number of cases at any given time doesn’t cross the dotted line of the capacity of our nation’s health care system to help everyone who’s very sick.
“If you don’t have as many cases coming to the hospitals and clinics at once, it can actually lower the number of total deaths from the virus and from other causes,” he says. “And, importantly, it buys us time for university and government scientists, and industry, to create new therapies, medications and potentially a vaccine.”
Another key factor to consider: the doctors, nurses, pharmacists, technicians and many other staff who actually work in healthcare. The more cases of COVID-19 there are at any given time, the more likely some of them are to catch it, whether in the community or at work. Once they’re sick, they need to stay away from patients for weeks. Which means fewer people to take care of the patients who need care.
Canceling, postponing or moving online for our work, education and recreation may be inconvenient, annoying and disappointing.
But hospitals need to have enough room, supplies and staff to care for those who need hospital-level care -- whether it’s for coronavirus, a heart attack, car crash, broken bone or birth. That’s why it’s important to listen to public health authorities and leaders if and when they say it’s time to change how we live our lives temporarily.
