Do we know that, indeed, China and S. Korea peaked out?

[question everything]

Yes, they used draconian measures but if they had, we may be able to draw some conclusions, I hope.

[Laelth]

1. We can't know that.

These kinds of pandemics sometimes come in waves.



-Laelth

[Brainfodder]

9. Waves.... silly sods slack off even one day.... ARGH!

Long fix, not short.

Without a vaccine, this grows exponentially?

World is watching, and some just aint ready and now what's going to be other country's leaders' excuses when it does?

[Laelth]

10. Not necessarily.

Spanish Flu was first discovered in 1911, I think, and then it acted like an ordinary flu, in terms of its mortality rates, for six years. Then, in 1918, it rebounded in two waves—the October 1918 wave being the most severe. Early 1919 saw a wave of fatalities, and then the disease just disappeared for all intents and purposes.

It’s difficult to predict virus-based respiratory diseases like COVID-19, but it appears that they come and go in waves. No vaccine was ever developed for the Spanish Flu.



Above is the mortality “wave chart” for the 1918 flu pandemic. I worry about what might happen in October 2020.



-Laelth

[Brainfodder]

11. Yes but.... caution?

I plan to stay hermit-lite for as long as it takes.

[Laelth]

12. That's just it.

We don’t know how long it’s going to take.

-Laelth

[Brainfodder]

13. ...and that's the unsettingling portion, oh it's gonna get so much worse, when unreasonables snap.

Snapping here and a snapping there, and ERs already full!

So I just hang low and chill, best I got.

[Laelth]

14. Sounds like a wise policy, to me.

Be safe.



-Laelth

[cos dem]

2. I've looked at the raw data for trends,...

and yes, at least so far China and SK are trending away from uncontrolled exponential growth. That doesn't mean, as you say, that if they were to ease up that their rates might increase. But so far, both of these countries show case growth at significantly lower rates than the rest of the world.

I don't see anyone else has a handle on it yet (I don't have raw data for HK or Singapore).

I'd post my chart, but haven't found a way to share it.

[question everything]

5. Thanks. If you have your chart on your computer you can use Postimage

https://postimages.org/

To load the file and form there you have a direct link to post here.

[dalton99a]

3. Are COVID cases coming to an end in China?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00741-x

Are COVID cases coming to an end in China?

New cases of COVID-19 have slowed dramatically in China, but some fear that once the country fully eases its control measures, the virus could start circulating again. It could even be reintroduced into China from the countries now experiencing outbreaks. Because China’s measures protected so many people from infection, a large pool of people have no immunity against the virus, says Leung.

China is suppressing the virus, not eradicating it, says Osterholm. The world will need to wait until about eight weeks after China resumes to some form of normality to know what it did or didn’t accomplish with its population-movement limitations, he says .

There is probably a fierce debate going on in China about when to relax the lockdown measures, says Roy Anderson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London. He suggests there could be a second wave of new infections when they are lifted.

Lockdowns have to end at some point, and government’s should remind people to maintain social distancing and good hygiene, says Anderson. “It’s our actions more than government measures that will matter,” he says.

[question everything]

7. Thank, interesting. Osterholm is the best authority on infections diseases

so his opinions count.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

4. No

[defacto7]

6. Numbers are changing, they indicate a trend.

What that trend means we can't know. All is speculative at this point.

[bamagal62]

8. Singapore just had a surge in

Cases as of yesterday. They are climbing again.