Here's how dangerous COVID-19 is:

[DetlefK]

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

While the range of symptoms for the two viruses is similar, the fraction with severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection.

Those most at risk for severe influenza infection are children, pregnant women, elderly, those with underlying chronic medical conditions and those who are immunosuppressed. For COVID-19, our current understanding is that older age and underlying conditions increase the risk for severe infection.

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

80% of infected develop little to no symptoms and eventually get healthy on their own, similar to a flu.

~17% of infected get so sick, they die unless getting care in a hospital.

~3% of infected get so sick, they die even when getting care in hospital.



So, for every 1 person visibly ill from COVID-19, there are 4 more people running around who can unknowingly infect you because they remain fairly healthy.

You yourself might already be infected without knowing it and without getting sick.














They walk among us!!!!!!!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. One more reason for people to stay home if they can.

[treestar]

2. Makes me wonder if keeping kids home from school

will help, since death rates seem tied to age, maybe the little infectors should be corralled together all day!

[Saboburns]

5. I'm guessing that you yerself ain't a kid

Methinks if you yerself were a "little infector" you would think differently.

[treestar]

9. trying to make gallows humor

but in truth they are now spread out and kids get much lighter cases. Now they are home with grandma.

But I guess they do spread things more, and schools could supervise more hand washing and the like. So it's an issue that might be worth looking at without having to get emotional.

[samnsara]

6. ..i was told because they show hardly any symptoms..or maybe a carrier?

...I was a carrier of measles when I was young. At least that what the doc said..and I had natural antibodies for small pox..Im 69 and have no small pox scar even tho I got the inoculation twice.





Kids are like walking petrie dishes.

[treestar]

11. Yes, I am absorbing kids get lighter cases

- and a graph I saw yesterday made me think it is worse with age directly correlated - thus some young idiots calling it the "boomer remover."

So it might be better to keep kids in school supervised with handwashing then having them home with older generations, especially if they go out. I've heard some say the poor kids can't play with other kids, as conscientious parents would keep them apart. Teens we know will sneak around and feel invincible and get together!

[gollygee]

10. Corralled together spreading it among themselves

and then taking it home to every household.

[treestar]

12. Yeah, you're likely right

They still go home every night.

Boarding schools or colleges could stay in and keep it within them and since young people get lighter cases, that might be ok, but the colleges were the first to disperse. My nephew was on spring break and it was extended another week, but what are they going to do for next week? Maybe they'll be ready to go online, as Harvard did.

[Newest Reality]

3. We are prepared!

The CDC has us covered:



https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/zombie/index.htm

[samnsara]

4. when the first pt was accidentally discovered in Seattle... he was already recovered..

..the docs remarked that 'Its everywhere'....

[evertonfc]

7. ok, well some more positive stats

There are 370 million people in America. Most won't die in a hospital hallway. Just saying.

[unblock]

8. Estimates I've seen are that there are 50 infected for every 1 confirmed case

Due to the exponential spread and limited testing, by the time there is one confirmed case, there are many people who are still in the incubation period, asymptotic, or even showing symptoms but not yet tested.