JPMorgan forecasts US could be in recession by July: report
Published 1 min ago on March 12, 2020
By Matthew Chapman
On Thursday, CNBC contributor James Pethokoukis reported that JPMorgan has revised its GDP forecast to -2 percent annualized growth in the first quarter of 2020, and -3 percent in the second.
The forecast assumes the government will enact a $500 billion fiscal stimulus, and suggests that growth could return to positive in the third quarter if the spread of coronavirus slows.
James Pethokoukis
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@JimPethokoukis
🔥 JPMORGAN: "Revised GDP forecast of -2.0% annualized growth in 1Q, followed by -3.0% growth in 2Q. ... forecast assumes a fiscal response of about $500 billion. .... If the spread of virus moderates .... stage could be set for a return to growth in 3Q, when we forecast 2.5%
A recession has traditionally been defined as a period of two or more consecutive quarters of negative annualized GDP growth. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research no longer follows this standard, instead defining a recession as, “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
By either definition, if the JPMorgan forecast holds, the U.S. economy could be declared in recession as soon as July.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/jpmorgan-forecasts-us-could-be-in-recession-by-july-report/
This economy is based on "consumer spending', like a lot of economies..................give the home owners and renters a break.................since the country may go into lock down...................
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