General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMATH From: American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months:
96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admissions
480,000 deaths
vs flu in 2019:
35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths
Link to tweet
?s=20
BusyBeingBest
(8,059 posts)JWMF
(2 posts)I live in Seattle. This is an extremely serious pandemic, but the slide is bogus. The title of Best Guess ... Would never be used by anyone in the scientific community and the term epi curve ... doesnt exist, its actually called epi wave. It was probably created by someone with good intentions to wake people up, but its absolutely not a real document.
Stay away from large gatherings of people, social distance as much as possible, hydrate often, take your vitamins, dont touch your nose, eyes or mouth unless youre at home and have already washed your hands. Wash your hands often, for at least 20 seconds, dont forget your nails and wrists.
You are most likely not going to die from this, but the life you save, may just be someone you love.
Best of luck everyone, stay safe and make good choices,
Self-quarantined in Seattle
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)and thanks for your well-thought out post.
We're hunkering down here in SC, there will be no part of the US safe from this. All the best to you during this trying time.
Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)if we had had a actual president. WHERE ARE THE TEST KITS?!!!!
Blues Heron
(5,939 posts)are they on the way to 300,000,000 cases?
NickB79
(19,258 posts)And locked down 500 million citizens to stem the spread.
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)for a variety of reasons, including a chief executive who tells people to go to work sick.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,355 posts)That would mean having to get 20 patients per bed in just 2 months - 3 days per patient. I think they'd need longer than that; so 1.9 million in ICU is what would be needed, not what is achievable.
BusyBeingBest
(8,059 posts)patients will have to be extensively triaged for hospitalization--if this holds up. I hope it doesn't.
defacto7
(13,485 posts)Healthcare facilities and healthcare workers are THE priority right now.
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)ghost towns, you're likely to have a greatly reduced rate of vehicle accident trauma, that may help a tiny bit.
Strelnikov_
(7,772 posts)In essence, if these figures hold out, we are talking 1.5 m+ dead in 2 months.
Renew Deal
(81,869 posts)KentuckyWoman
(6,690 posts)bucolic_frolic
(43,257 posts)Holy moley!
Dale Neiburg
(698 posts)bucolic_frolic
(43,257 posts)I don't think so.
Dale Neiburg
(698 posts)But according to the OP, that's estimated total infections, so 1/3 isn't surprising. I've sen estimates in the 40-50% range. I thought the 1/3 number was being applied to the death rate.
bucolic_frolic
(43,257 posts)SiliconValley_Dem
(1,656 posts)Before there is a workable vaccine
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)I didn't find the figures on quickish search.
klook
(12,164 posts)so there won't be 4.8 million hospitalizations. There won't be enough beds.
On edit: After looking up info on hospital beds, I see my assumption is not necessarily correct. There are a little over 900,000 hospital beds in the U.S., so we certainly couldn't accommodate 4.8 million patients at the same time. But if we can reduce transmission rates, we can keep the simultaneous cases at a lower level.
This illustrates the vital importance of preventative measures such as quarantine, self-isolation, and diligent anti-viral cleaning. We can't stop the virus in its tracks, but with a concerted group effort we can blunt the impact somewhat.
With pathetic leadership at the Federal level, this is easier said than done.
KentuckyWoman
(6,690 posts)I'm not one for general panic, but if they can just get the general public to take the same self protection precautions we should be doing every day to start with... it will slow things down. That's the real ticket it seems... just slow it down so the medical people can tread water so to speak...
I'm an old lady praying I don't have something big old lady wise in the middle of all this that requires a doctor.... any doctor.
klook
(12,164 posts)Thats why measures like closing borders or worse, stunts like wearing a gas mask to a session of Congress and pretending this virus is a Libtard hoax are ineffective.
Listen to the scientists and behave accordingly should be everyones mantra.
Lots of us are hoping other health problems leave us alone until this thing is under control. Best of luck to you and to us all.
SiliconValley_Dem
(1,656 posts)But this thing has been spreading for some time and in no way even quantifies or contained. All US officials and private sector can only take measures to slow down the spread such that our infrastructure can manage the cases needing hospitalization.
Fla Dem
(23,732 posts)to care for all those people. Medical personnel will be among those needing hospitalization.
LAS14
(13,783 posts).... because there is no plan in place (no plan to make a plan!!). So maybe they figure they'll be the exception that proves the rule and will have enough beds...
uponit7771
(90,359 posts)LAS14
(13,783 posts)... "community EPI wave 2 months." Why doesn't it just last forever? If it's because summer is coming, why is Florida getting cases?
tia
las
gristy
(10,667 posts)on average when then are contagious. When that happens it does indeed peter out. The difficulty is making that happen...
Maru Kitteh
(28,342 posts)influenza-type disease; globally endemic, that will present an ongoing challenge. We have an influenza season that varies somewhat from year to year, but influenza cases never drop to zero at any time. It simply waxes and wanes, and we do our level best to keep up with vaccinations that stupid freaking idiots make all manner of excuses not to get - but that's another topic altogether.
gristy
(10,667 posts)"peter out".
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)defacto7
(13,485 posts)resperatory disease that will go around every year like H1N1. They're saying it will probably be added to the yearly vaccine regime.
KentuckyWoman
(6,690 posts)In other words... once it hits the office/school/factory/apartment building you live/work in ... count on about 2 months for the level of new cases to start coming back down.
At least that's my understanding... someone correct me if I'm wrong.
Claritie Pixie
(2,199 posts)Watched an interview with an Infectious Diseases expert and he is concerned it may not wear itself out. Coronaviruses that cause the common cold are with us from year to year.
There's no evidence so far that warmer weather will stop it.
OhNo-Really
(3,985 posts)gristy
(10,667 posts)Why these folks use an R0 of 2.5 here is beyond me.
klook
(12,164 posts)-- such as myself:
https://vitals.lifehacker.com/what-is-the-coronaviruss-r0-and-why-does-it-matter-1841264885
*I use the term "Great Washed" rather than "Great Unwashed," since so many of us are washing our hands way more often and way more thoroughly than usual.
The basic idea is this: the average sick person, in a totally susceptible population, must be able to get at least one other person sick (R0 = 1) for the disease to spread. If a disease spreads to fewer than one person, on average, an outbreak cant happen.
So, all epidemics involve something with an R0 of more than 1. Seasonal flu has an R0 of around 1.2. Measles has one of the highest R0 numbers, although its hard to pin down an exact number: 12 to 18 is typically cited. Many diseases, from the terrifying to the mundane, exist in the 2-7 range: Ebola, HIV, the common cold. The Guardian has a chart here that compares the R0 of several well known infectious agents, if youre curious.
There are some important caveats about this number. First, it represents what happens in a population that is completely susceptible. Nobody has been vaccinated; nobody has had time to develop immunity. And second, it says nothing about how fast the disease will travel, just how many people it will eventually infect.
More at link: What Is the Coronavirus's R0 and Why Does It Matter? (Lifehacker)
Also see this 2018 Video from a Penn State epidemiology course:
uponit7771
(90,359 posts)gristy
(10,667 posts)The quarantine has been effective in greatly reducing that number, and as a result there are far fewer cases and deaths in China today than there would have been without it.
uponit7771
(90,359 posts)... hand accounts.
That there are still people getting it in China sounds dangerous after two months.
dalton99a
(81,568 posts)https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/public-health/100-years-after-spanish-flu-lessons-learned-and-challenges-future
There are a lot of assumptions and guesses that go in the formula:
R0 ~ (infection/contact)(contact/time)(time/infection)
More specifically:
R0 = transmissibility (i.e., probability of infection given contact between a susceptible and infected individual) TIMES the average rate of contact between susceptible and infected individuals TIMES the duration of infectiousness.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)That sounds more like 2.5 than 0.7
gristy
(10,667 posts)The data isn't showing an R0 of 2.5 for the population at large. The goal is to lower R0 for all communities so that the R0 for the population at large (that is, the average R0, which is what they've used in this model) is as low as possible. By social distancing, hand washing, not touching the face, quarantine, etc. All the stuff they've been talking about.
JudyM
(29,265 posts)Response to JudyM (Reply #22)
defacto7 This message was self-deleted by its author.
defacto7
(13,485 posts)Hugin
(33,189 posts)or was that the spread of test kits? I forget.
Grasswire2
(13,571 posts)EXCELLENT
Alsteen
(69 posts)The only reason that the Spanish flu ended was that it killed everyone on earth that it could...
gristy
(10,667 posts)after having caught and survived the Spanish flu, that in addition to those who could never catch it because they were already immune, there was enough herd immunity to stop the epidemic. So there were still plenty who could have been sickened by it but never caught it.
Wikipedia tells me that the Spanish flu infected 27% of the world's population.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)and we have good reason to be concern with Nero fiddling while watching Rome burn in the Whitehouse
brings back Book of Revelations and the anti-christ feel right?
AllyCat
(16,216 posts)lutherj
(2,496 posts)this seems to project a profile of the peak of the epidemic over a two month period. If you go to the link and scroll down you will see the slide shot and disclaimers. This may be splitting hairs, but might as well be accurate.
Source:
https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3
AHA webinar
The slide does not give a particular time frame.
The slide represents "his interpretation of the data available. It's possible that forecast will change as more information becomes available," a spokesman for Nebraska Medicine told Business Insider in an email.
The American Hospital Association said the webinar reflects the views of the experts who spoke on it, not its own.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)the WORLD is not prepared to handle any pandemic as we don't have the capital to undertake worse case preparation of building a massive medical infrastructure as well as having the talent to be ready when one may hit.
It is what it is and best case to be personally prepared for such events when it comes about. If you have to honker down for a month, be ready to do so
appalachiablue
(41,168 posts)looks pretty weird although the alternative is far worse..
lutherj
(2,496 posts)2 months. The numbers are a projection for a two-month duration at the peak of the epidemic in the US. It could happen this summer, a year from now, or not at all.
Of course everyone should take precautions and stock up sensibly on medicine and food. But dont run out and fill up your pickup truck with toilet paper.
http://theconversation.com/a-toilet-paper-run-is-like-a-bank-run-the-economic-fixes-are-about-the-same-133065
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)numbers are more correct than not when risk assessments are down concerning pandemic impacts. All hospitals do such planning. So the prognosis is more correct and valid than not. My friend and his top people are not sleeping too well at the moment knowing what the future may bring them
like any models, they are models but there is valid data with in
defacto7
(13,485 posts)Cousin Dupree
(1,866 posts)meeting with important people. And the general public desperately needs guidelines on what to do if they suspect they are ill, how and when to self-isolate, how to contact health care providers, etc etc. etc. This is what you get when you put an uninformed politician in charge of something he knows nothing about. Disgusted beyond words.
enki23
(7,789 posts).
usaf-vet
(6,196 posts)the military has been so downsized to accommodate privatization of the military's medical services that can't be an option now. Civilian practitioners are not going to fill the gap.
spanone
(135,861 posts)JWMF
(2 posts)I live in Seattle. This is an extremely serious pandemic but the slide is bogus. The title of Best Guess ... Would never be used by anyone in the scientific community and the term epi curve ... doesnt exist, its actually called epi wave. It was probably created by someone with good intentions to wake people up, but its absolutely not a real document.
Stay away from large gatherings of people, social distance as much as possible, hydrate often, take your vitamins, dont touch your nose, eyes or mouth unless youre at home and have already washed your hands. Wash your hands often, for at least 20 seconds, dont forget your nails and wrists.
You are most likely not going to die from this, but the life you save, may just be someone you love.
Best of luck everyone, stay safe and make good choices,
Self-quarantined in Seattle
Response to kpete (Original post)
democratisphere This message was self-deleted by its author.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)Car wash style, patient(s) stay in vehicle, questionaire, check vitals, and treatment and/or escalation as required, for anyone who drives in, no cost!
I am already hermit-lite enough!
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)Science Friday
Looking To The Genome To Track And Treat The New Coronavirus
17:18 minutes
Scientists have sequenced the genome of the novel coronavirus from two patients in Washington state. Here's how the genetic information can help treat the illness.
https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/genome-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR2EIS2Ci7Ko6hbX0jEjZqF6efxb5vDJVKkgK-LrA8GKdCZWTUvbRB45lcc
Recursion
(56,582 posts)So, twice as many hospitalizations as there are hospital beds.