40-70% of every adult in the world over the age of 35 will be infected. Millions will die

[berni_mccoy]

https://m.

&feature=youtu.be

Bad news and the projections are mathematically sound.

[Thomas Hurt]

1. hundreds of thousands will have to die here before the christofascists get it.

Hell, they could still write it off as God's will as long as the right people are dying.

[louis-t]

3. Wouldn't it be odd if only Republicans die?

[defacto7]

6. This is the next apocalypse they have been frothing about

for the last 2000 years. Like all the others it will do it's natural thing and the remaining religionists will start all over.. repent, for bla bla. Strange, Jesus never comes.

[Thomas Hurt]

7. I don't believe in "the" Antichrist, but Trump is an antichrist.

I imagine the end timers are giddy.

[cwydro]

32. Well, there was a story about Iranians licking holy shrines the other day.

They aren’t “Christofascists” I don’t think.

[CountAllVotes]

2. Dr. Campbell says 80% will become infected

as all hell!!

[defacto7]

4. The probabilities are sobering, the possibilities staggering.

[mn9driver]

5. Using round numbers and a 3% death rate

Equals 100 million dead worldwide.

[edhopper]

8. It's probably lower

due to the unreported cases. So maybe only 50 million or so...Yea!

[Pobeka]

15. Much lower

If you listen to him, he says about 98% of those infected will experience no symptoms.

The 3% mortality rate applies to those who have symptoms.

So the overall population mortality is approx 2% * 3% or 0.06%

[edhopper]

16. still hundreds of thousands

[Pobeka]

21. 2.4MM assumming world pop of 8 bil and half are infected.

Grim.

A lot could be avoided with proactive steps to prevent spread, and give time to develop vaccines.

[coti]

36. Hmmm. As a side note, tobacco kills between 6 and 8 million people per year, globally. nt

[berni_mccoy]

19. It could be much higher

If you look at China with 80k cases, 3k deaths and 53k recovered, assuming little-no further infections in that country, that death rate is somewhere between 4-5% once all of the remaining 27k unresolved cases resolve.

[defacto7]

10. That would be right at the highest estimates for the Spanish flu.

50-100 million. It's all speculative though.

[emmaverybo]

13. The world was not as populated then so the numbers do not equate.

[defacto7]

17. Tis true. Many things are different since then.

But I think a 100% leeway could cover the difference. But then, maybe not. Analogies are for picturing the magnitude anyway, not for measuring stats. It will be somewhere between 4000 and 7 billion.

[emmaverybo]

22. Right. Trying to reassure myself. Problem is whatever the numbers they will be high and

possibly it will be ongoing.

[CountAllVotes]

12. 15-20% of the elderly and immune compromised

NOT GOOD no matter how they try to spin this crap!

[abqtommy]

9. I'm convinced that this COVID-19 is a serious threat to health. Yet every day I see encouraging

reports of advances in treatment, in mitigating contact and chances for infection. So I choose not to focus on what I'm beginning to rightly call "fear mongering" and turn my attention and energy to survivability. For me that's a far better use of my energy. I don't get much out of being afraid...

[defacto7]

11. I hear you. I wish I weren't such a statistics nut.

I'd be a lot more... blissful.

[ibegurpard]

14. my view exactly

other than doing what I can individually, and knowing my government has already FUBARed it, what else can I do? Pointless to panic. It's coming and I'll get it or I won't.

[defacto7]

18. That's it.

[Jarqui]

20. The Chinese have all but halted new cases

They've done it via quarantine.

There's no vaccine for 12-18 months at best - if they can come up with one.

Why not begin preparations for quarantine now?

It is the only way to curtail spreading it.

We've already started preparations at our house.

When it hits your community, that's what they're going to ask you to do.
There's no other option I can see at this point.

[durablend]

23. So what happens when you can't work?

And are evicted? Where are you going to quarantine then?

[Jarqui]

24. How many companies are going to let people come into work

coughing and dripping with fevers? What CEO wants to be surrounded by infected employees? What other employees will want that?

80% of the country will get sick if they do nothing.

If people are too sick to work, how will they pay their rent? Or pay for food?
We're going to have a problem regardless. Probably need to start growing the food banks in preparation.

There will be interruptions from supply chains around the world and folks will get laid off - regardless - worse if they don't do something like quarantine.

There will be significant financial problems regardless - worse if they don't do something like quarantine.

It's going to be a mess regardless - worse if they don't do something like quarantine.

The Chinese assessed they were better off minimizing the illness in their country by quarantine. There are reports that they're close to lifting the quarantine and going back to work.

I doubt the best path is to do nothing.
Without a vaccine, what path is there aside from quarantine or do nothing? None that seem very attractive that I'm aware of. But I'm no expert - maybe someone has better idea.

[gristy]

25. You make some good points, but sending back to work could be a problem

The one over-arching goal until there is a vaccine is to get and keep the virus's basic reproductive number below 1. Lifting the quarantine is certain to bring it back above 1. Keeping it in place will save lives. Lifting it will cost lives.

[Jarqui]

30. The ideal - and it won't happen unfortunately

If everyone stays where they are for four weeks or so

Those that have the virus or live with them get the virus and then they either die or live.

That brings it way down below 1.

Either you do that or 100+ million will die.

[SoCalNative]

26. People have been working while under quarantine

they've just been doing it from home. Nothing to stop those who can here from doing the same.

[Jarqui]

29. Absolutely.

[Coventina]

38. How many people have jobs that allow that? Service industry?

(our biggest sector of the economy)

Service jobs like retail, hospitality, dining, entertainment, etc. can't work from home.

Sure, you can shut down all the stores, restaurants, theaters, etc. but then those people don't generally get sick time or any other PTO.
Their businesses close, they are out of work, evicted, etc.

What then?

[Quixote1818]

27. They have also forced huge numbers of people to stay home

The streets are empty. You can't do that in most countries.

[Jarqui]

34. No question, Our freedom might be our biggest problem with containing this. nt

[al bupp]

28. We don't truly know this.

They could very well be employing the benefits of an authoritarian regime and suppressing news of further infections.

Also all mortality rate estimates require a reasonably accurate tally of total infections that I doubt exist anywhere on the planet due to the lack of widespread testing. This also affects the assessment of the proportion of infections which lead to illness.

[Jarqui]

31. I'm doubting that now. I thought it not long ago

Someone from World Heath Org wrote an article/report after visiting China checking on it - suspecting as you do and I did. They claim it is the real deal.

I have since read several reports since saying something roughly similar.
I have been personally monitoring the Chinese number that has hovered around 80,000 for some time.

Is that absolute proof? No way.

But increasingly, it appears to be true.

[cwydro]

33. So what happens to people who work in hospitals?

Who work in dialysis centers? Who work with those who need daily care? How about cops, firefighters, paramedics? Are they going to stay home too?

We just going to forget all those vulnerable folks and let them die while we hunker down in our homes fondling our toilet paper, eating our canned food, drinking our bottled water, and worshiping our wee bottles of Purell?

[Jarqui]

35. In some cases, the health workers and firefighters are going to have to stay home

What is probably going to have to happen is something like the Chinese did - setting up dedicated treatment areas. Non-medical people will probably have to step up and help treat people while doctors and nurses quarterback the multiple pairs of hands. A number of them will be folks who got the virus and survived it.

The Chinese setup up delivery systems for food and essentials.

Will some fall through the cracks? Sad to say, probably.

If we don't try to quarantine, you'll probably see worse.

[CountAllVotes]

37. That is B.S.

There were 120+ new cases reported today in Shanghai!

Do not believe the CPP lies!

Do not spread their lies!

[Jarqui]

39. Without a vaccine, please tell the class how you're going to arrest

the spread of the virus.

You have no choice but to attempt what China did - a quarantine.

In a country of over a billion people, as China is, you expect an instant 100% result with a virus that can lie dormant for weeks? And absolutely no new cases?

That's an absurd expectation. Ridiculous. If you've watched it as I have, there has been a trickle of cases. It stabilized around 80,000 in terms of arresting exponential growth ... which leads to an R value of less than one - the infection should die out if it doesn't mutate into something else.

This is from the World Health Organization who went to China to check it out
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to
implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures.

You are clearly failing on that last sentence.

That is not China saying that. It is the World Health Organization who went to check it out. I've seen other sources that corroborate them.

China is doing the only thing they could to stop it. That is not such a stretch to appreciate regardless of where they are politically. Guess what? If it is not done elsewhere, a lot of people are going to die. There is no vaccine. This is very simple medical logic that is hard to implement 100%.