How long do you think COVID-19 has been circulating in the US?

[LonePirate]

I am curious what other DUers think on this subject, specifically how long do you think the COVID-19 virus has been actively circulating here in the US? Do you think it has only been a week or two? Since the Diamond Princess evacuees were returned? Since the Wuhan airlift? Since the holidays? Since December or earlier?

Keep in mind that the virus has been transmissible from asymptomatic carriers for a while now, since at least January and maybe (probably?) earlier. From what I know, the first known cases/deaths in China were from late November/early December, possibly earlier if you think it might have been misdiagnosed as the flu or other ailments.

I am no medical expert by any means and I am not trying to trade in conspiracy theories. It’s just that you need to keep in mind that asymptomatic carriers were (are) not subject to travel restrictions and they have likely been traveling for weeks and months now. I am guessing that the virus first landed in the US back in December but I am certainly willing to accept facts or studies that pinpoint a different date.

What does DU think?

[Coventina]

1. I'm thinking since Jan, at the latest.

Possibly earlier than that.

[uponit7771]

2. 2 months minimum

[C_U_L8R]

3. Since it's been circulating anywhere

Travel and trade spread these things in real time.

[MoonlitKnight]

4. Since December

And it has likely been widespread for over a month.

[RT Atlanta]

5. months

perhaps back to even before Thanksgiving, but without realization that this is what was going around COVID-19 (instead of just a 'really bad cold')

[malaise]

6. Six to eight weeks

at least

[dewsgirl]

7. Mid January, I was very concerned about the Super Bowl.

I wonder how many cases of misdiagnosis there are?

[Silver1]

8. I agree with you.

Last I read, China believes the first patient was hospitalized on December 1. If he had picked up the virus 2 weeks prior, that would mean the virus was circulating in Hubei Province mid November.

I believe it began to quietly spread within China and globally at that point. Certainly the sudden and high numbers in Italy and other countries indicate community transmission has been happening for a long time.

The case doubling rate is 6.5 days.

[Miigwech]

9. I believe virus has been around USA and Ontario, CAN

since early December. So many have gotten sick with severe respiratory illness. Seasonal Flu or CoronaV? Don't know, does anyone know since there were no reliable test kits.

[Igel]

10. And even with reliable test kits,

unless people knew to check for it, they wouldn't have.

The CDC protocol until recently was you could have the symptoms, but unless there was another reason to suspect COVID-19, don't test for it. You don't treat the disease, you treat the symptoms. And if the symptoms are that of cold or flu, meh.

A reasonable percentage of cases are asymptomatic or sniffles. Which means that every instance of a person with the sniffles--or no symptoms--would also merit a test. Mostly for the purposes of just collecting data or letting people know what viral infection they have. As though that's horribly useful information, except for predicting the time course of the illness.

Then again, I think most of the flu tests done on people are pointless. You have flu symptoms. You treat them. You go to the doctor. "Do I have the flu?" The proper response is, "You have the symptoms. It's day 3--getting better?" "Yes." "Well, then, you're getting better. Call it the flu." Instead there's an additional expense just to confirm that the illness that resembles the flu and which is treated like the flu really is the flu.

[nolabear]

11. January sometime.

[Golden Raisin]

12. Since late December/January.

[leftyladyfrommo]

13. Lots of people who thought they had a cold or flu

may have really had this.

[jeffreyi]

14. Agree with the "several months" estimates

Purely anecdotal. But why not?

[tanyev]

15. I used to work for an ESL program and we basically shut down thru December

and early Jan., because so many of our Asian students took advantage of the school holidays to make an extended trip back home. Bound to have to have been lots of travelers from Wuhan to the U.S. in early to mid January.

[pnwmom]

16. We know it was already here by Jan. 19, when the UW researchers found

the first person in the chain of transmission they've been talking about. But all this data came from only 2 cases (which probably resulted in hundreds of others.) We don't know if there were other cases beyond this chain of transmission.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213038010

[marble falls]

18. So in your mind this has been all around us all the time and what's killing people is purely panic.