Five Reasons You Don't Need to Panic About the COVID-19 Coronavirus

[USALiberal]

https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2020/02/29/five_reasons_you_dont_need_to_panic_about_the_covid-19_coronavirus.html

Good read if interested.....

I just posted the main points, details at the link.

1. The number of cases in China is already falling.
2. The vast majority of cases are mild, and the death rate is likely lower than reported.
3. Only one out of every 1,000 people in Hubei Province has contracted the coronavirus
4. There have been no reported deaths in young children.
5. The world already survived another pandemic just ten years ago.

[snowybirdie]

1. People have to

calmly assess their own, personal risk and proceed accordingly. Most will be just fine, but high risk folks need be very careful. Scary days ahead.

[Squinch]

2. I agree with this, but I do become annoyed at the posters who classify taking

sensible precautions as "panicking" or "hysterical."

There's a lot of that going on.

But you're right. Only a small percentage of people are in danger. Though even that small percentage could represent a lot of deaths if this spreads around the globe.

[USALiberal]

10. I agree, being concerned about this is logical! This is a big deal! nt

[Turbineguy]

3. Active cases nearly equal to closed cases as of this morning.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We are taking "sensible" precautions. I'm thinking that wearing gloves or mittens is a good way to train yourself not to touch your face.

[Squinch]

4. 18% of active cases are critical. That's a number I hadn't been aware of before.

[Turbineguy]

7. It's been running 18-20 percent all along.

I think that "critical" means hospitalization. From further down the page:

80% of cases are mild

Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology has found that:

80.9% of infections are mild (with flu-like symptoms) and can recover at home.
13.8% are severe, developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.
4.7% as critical and can include: respiratory failure, septic shock, and multi-organ failure.
in about 2% of reported cases the virus is fatal.
Risk of death increases the older you are.
Relatively few cases are seen among children.

[Fozzledick]

12. "Critical" means life threatening.

A non-chronic, non-life threatening condition requiring immediate hospitalization would be classified as "acute", or as in the article quoted "severe" rather than "critical".

The 20% quote appears to be a loose, non-technical use of the term to include all cases severe enough to be hospitalized.

[Squinch]

14. I've been watching Johns Hopkins. They don't report that statistic, so I wasn't

aware of it.

The more information the better!

[Turbineguy]

22. At the Johns Hopkins site

you have to do your own math. The site I listed and Johns Hopkins are very close.

If you don't trust the numbers form China, then look at the percentages. They paint a picture.

[karynnj]

5. While panicking is never a good idea, this list goes too far

1 and 3 depend on China providing adequate information when one criticism has been that they hid the problem as much as they could. Number 2 may well be true, but it depends on the likelihood that the denominator (the total number of people who get it) is higher. (Note that that would contradict point 3 which suggests that the percent of people in an infected community is low.)mPoint 4 is very important and I hope that it proves true as this virus moves across the world. Point 5 ignores that not all pandemics are equal. Not to mention the "world surviving" is a pretty low bar.

IMO, the most important paragraph here is this:

The CDC's warning is frank and unnerving. It is an impetus for sober and reasoned action. Stock up on a week's worth of frozen/canned food. Restock your medicine cabinet. Practice proper hygiene. Stay home if you're feeling sick. There is no need, however, to panic. If you're feeling in any way anxious about the coronavirus outbreak, here are five facts to help assuage your worries.

It is interesting that this is written by the staff of real clear - the part of that most seen here is real clear politics. I wonder if they were as interested in tamping down fear in 2014 as the Obama administration did a very professional job leading the world effort in containing Ebola. Although they did a great job, the Republican fear machine used it in the 2014 election. (They KNOW what they did, could their comments be project that we are doing the same - when we worry about the cuts to the CDC and the elimination of the task force out of the President's office established by the Obama team and can't understand why other countries are already testing large numbers of people - while our test kits are questionable.)

[USALiberal]

8. Good point. nt

[Mariana]

6. The numbers being reported in China are frankly unbelievable.

According to the Chinese government, there were 427 new confirmed cases in mainland China reported yesterday, of which 423 were in Hubei province, where Wuhan is. Does anyone really believe only 4 new infections occurred in all of mainland China outside of Hubei in 24 hours?

http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/s7860/202002/4ef8b5221b4d4740bda3145ac37e68ed.shtml

Google can translate the report.

[USALiberal]

9. I agree, not sure I trust China to be honest! nt

[Mariana]

11. It may not be deliberate deception.

Of course they are concentrating their resources in Hubei where the overwhelming majority of cases are. They're probably short of personnel and test kits to diagnose people, and are generally overwhelmed by the situation. Either way, the numbers just don't make sense.

[LisaL]

13. Even if the numbers are believable, China is using draconian measures by

imposing quarantine on a huge numbers of people.

[PTWB]

16. Are they really draconian if they're warranted?

Forceful quarantine during an outbreak is helpful, not harmful. People are too stupid to voluntarily quarantine. Look at how many stupid people voted Trump. Look at the Fox News water bottle guy.


Sometimes heavy handed is the right way to do things - for the good of their society (and in this case the entire world).

[Squinch]

15. I agree. Especially because they reported that they had been

using a test that gave 50 to 70% false negatives, then they changed to a better test and after they began using the better test the infection rate didn't change at all.

[Wounded Bear]

17. The only ones "panicking" are the Trumps, because this is highlighting their incompetence...

Sensible people are taking precautions. Trump's administration is trying to shut down discussions and preventive measures.

The stock market is actually a rational correction responding to global disruptions of commerce and supply chains.

[TeamPooka]

18. RealClearScience is affiliated with the right wing site RealClearPolitics. A Fox News story video

pops up when you visit the page you shared
I say no to possible propaganda sites.

[mshasta]

19. That's like oh ok stay calm nothing to see here

Everything is fine....

Here in the USA

CDC Testing is incorrect ...backlogs of tests are waiting, hospitals don’t have the testing capabilities in place, we Won’t know who’s is infected and who is not , people don’t go to a hospital unless is really an emergency because is very expensive, insurance is worthless ,by then other people around are getting contaminated...
..education how to prevent spreading viruses are non existing for the general public, I don’t see public announcement on tv, buses, schools, airports , malls, wash your hands, cover your mouth with tissues when coughing ., ...and that’s what makes this virus incredible danger here in the USA and specially when we have a clown administration telling us nothing is going on, numbers are low compare to Ebola” ,”is a flu season”, “the virus is diving down”,”not much deaths numbers”,” is a hoax”, nothing happens to American human bodies because some how we are fucking superior compare to the rest of the world population ..I can go on an on....yes we should be worry

[Johnny2X2X]

20. Do people realize what China had to do?

To contain this as much as they did they literally put an area with the population of New York and California combined on total lockdown and martial law. No one in it out, and they quarantined tens of thousands of people in cages. The US isn’t prepared to do 1/10 as much.

[lame54]

21. 6. Trump is on it

[Drahthaardogs]

23. Mortality rate for those 75 and up is very high

Over 15%.

The elderly will suffer