Please stop the Covid-19 hysteria

[SDANation]

The flu has already KILLED in the range of 16000-41000 this year per the CDC. Worry about the flu.

[Turbineguy]

1. The active cases have been dropping for a week.

[SDANation]

3. Exactly!

People are acting like this is Outbreak the movie. The flu has a higher probability of killing healthy and sick

[Coventina]

4. Where are you getting that data? Because I don't see anything dropping:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Turbineguy]

6. 49,799 cases now. About 58,000 a week ago

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Infections - (deaths + recovered).

[Coventina]

10. I think I'll stick with Johns Hopkins, thanks. n/t

[Turbineguy]

11. Johns Hopkins shows

49,884 active cases.

[Coventina]

14. I'm very tired, I admit, heading off for bed now.

Where are you getting that number?

I'm not seeing it, but it's probably due to my fatigue.

[Squinch]

26. I see 80000 cases total minus 19000 recovered and 2500 dead. With the total

number of cases outside China doubling every 6 days.

On Johns Hopkins. Where are you getting your number?

[Nonhlanhla]

37. Here's a link

About (rounded numbers) 49,800 active cases worldwide right now, just over 30,000 cases resolved (27,600 recovered, 2,700 dead), for a total of about 80,000 total cases so far. Of the currently active cases, 81% is mild, 19% critical or severe. The daily increase in China has dropped consistently over the last week, from around 2,000 per day to around 500 per day, so still increasing in China but at a lower rate. The worrisome spots are Iran, Italy, and S. Korea. The increase in Korea dropped yesterday from about 160 to 60 - let's hope that is a sign of a trend. Italy is very unclear and worrisome, but I'm particularly concerned about Iran, since the death rate there seems very high, which means either an undercount of the cases or a more virulent strain. So, overall, the rate of increasing has been slowing, but Italy and Iran might be harbingers of worse to come.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Coventina]

43. Again, I think I'll stick with Johns Hopkins.

The other poster never followed up with me, which is......interesting.

[Nonhlanhla]

46. The numbers are the same

The numbers on Worldometer and the Johns Hopkins tracker are the same: about 80,000 total cases of which 30,000 are resolved (27,800 recovered, 2,700 dead), leaving us with around 50,000 currently ACTIVE cases.

[Coventina]

49. If active cases have decreased slightly, that's good.

I think it's too early to be popping champagne bottles, though.

[Nonhlanhla]

56. I agree

I'm not feeling very hopeful. I was just explaining where the previous poster got their number of active cases from. There is indeed a SLIGHT slowdown in China, but the new hot spots are troublesome, and who knows what the real numbers are...

[SDANation]

50. Yes

That we are aware of, there are articles about asymptomatic carriers.

[Nonhlanhla]

59. Yes

I'm particularly concerned about the situation in Iran. The death rate there suggests one of two scary scenarios: severe undercount of cases, or a more severe strain. Either is scary...

[Turbineguy]

76. The Johns Hopkins list

has US recovered cases assigned to cities. I see 53 infections cases total in the US and a total of 5 recovered in Chicago (2), and 1 each in San Diego County, Santa Clara and Seattle. So that leaves 48 active cases.

I'm not sure how many people are still confined in the quarantine locations. At one point I read 681 but then read that 229 had been released.

Obviously the cruise ship situation in Japan was mishandled. Terrible, but these things happen.

The situation in Iran is bad and I wounder how the sanctions are affecting their ability to cope. And then there's the Revolutionary Guard who might put this outbreak to use.

The media harps on the big numbers, the 80,000 infections, 2700 Deaths and the 41 (Diamond Princes is given country status) countries while ignoring the recovered cases and the 11 countries where the spread has been stopped.

[jimfields33]

57. How many in America?

Uh oh. Now you’ve been challenged because that’s where we need to be concerned with. Our borders are closed right now so new cases aren’t coming in anymore.

[Turbineguy]

71. According to the stats the US

53 infected, 0 deaths, 6 recovered, for an active count of 47.

As long as trump keeps his "best people" out of it, we should be fine.

[jimfields33]

73. True. Lol.

Not sure why congress (house and senate) wants to spend 2.5 billion on it. Slush fund?

[PA Democrat]

103. Our borders are NOT CLOSED.

[Coventina]

2. Hysteria? I don't see any hysteria here.

People are rightfully concerned, but I don't see any hysteria.

[SDANation]

5. Concerned about a severe cold.

The flu can kill young, old healthy or not

[Coventina]

7. OK, now I know you are joking. You are quoting Rush Limbaugh. n/t

[SDANation]

8. 3% mortality rate is nothing to throw road blocks up about

[Coventina]

9. You are hilarious. 3% is a VERY HIGH mortality rate.

If 3 out of 100 people with the flu died, we'd be swimming in corpses.

[SDANation]

13. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

[Coventina]

15. Links don't work when they are the subject line. n/t

[SDANation]

17. 14-41 thousand flu deaths so far. The rate is based on a

small sample size of infected vs dead. Every year the flu causes tens of thousands of deaths, yet why is the media not hyping that? Oh it’s cause, people will just write it off... “it’s JUST the flu”. The Spanish flu had a mortality rate around 20% for millions infected.

[Coventina]

19. You are just making shit up. The Spanish flu was nowhere near 20% mortality. n/t

[SDANation]

20. Sorry misspoke, estimated 20% of those infected with

Spanish flu died let a population or sample size in the millions. That’s huge.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/607000/

[Coventina]

22. You are making zero sense. n/t

[SDANation]

44. Based on this outbreak and the data from

CONFIRMED CASES, it’s estimated to have a mortality rate of 2.2%. The number of cases with no need for intervention, thus non reported could be significantly higher which would drive the mortality rate down right? But to be honest trying to calculate a mortality rate while the outbreak is ongoing is a flawed formula, because we can’t confirm truly, how many were infected or even infected and asymptomatic.

Great website crunching a lot of data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

If you have time for a 10 minute read, fantastic article and where we are at: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/607000/

[Coventina]

47. So you claim to know better than the Italian government, which has shut down Milan?

Or the CDC, which is telling Americans not to go to South Korea?

You are just embarrassing yourself.

[SDANation]

51. I'm not saying that at all. Did you read the article?

They are trying to by brute force shut down transmission, we are probably passed the point of shutting down the outbreak based on the way the virus behaves.

[Coventina]

52. That is EXACTLY what you said!!

"3% mortality rate is nothing to throw roadblocks up about."

Your exact words!!

[SDANation]

53. On a population of less than 50k CONFIRMED cases!

Epidemiologists believe the real case count of those infected is above 100k.

[Coventina]

55. You continue to make zero sense. n/t

[SDANation]

58. How so?

[Coventina]

60. You started this entire thread to "stop the hysteria." By using Rush Limbaugh's talking points.

You have yet to explain how anything is being hysterical.

The article in the Atlantic you keep touting doesn't say any of the things you seem to be claiming that it does.

Your numbers are wildly inaccurate. (then you say you "misspoke&quot .

You say we don't need roadblocks, but then you claim you didn't say that.

[SDANation]

62. ?

Had no idea, Rush Limbaugh had said anything about the corona virus, I don’t listen to right wing radio.

Yes it does, for majority of those who get infected, most recover.

The data website where I linked, is where I’m getting my numbers so I guess they are incorrect?

We don’t need roadblocks, this is governments trying to shut down transmission by way of brute force because we don’t fully understand the virus, since it’s new and hasn’t been faced. But like the article states, we are probably past the point of containing the virus and most likely will end up with Cold, Flu and Covid 19 season.

[Coventina]

63. Every thing you say indicates that you have no idea what this virus actually does.

Yes, most recover, that was even true of the Black Death, you know.

Just because most recover doesn't mean this is potentially a very serious situation.

When you say things like 20% mortality rate for the Spanish flu, or say that 3% is a low mortality rate, you are exposing your woeful ignorance.

You just plain don't know what you are talking about.

And have YET to explain what is being hysterical.

[SDANation]

65. Holy crap

What’s the point in arguing with such a mighty mind as yours. 3% in a population of less than 50k infected.... extrapolate that over millions, do you expect that number to go up or down?

[Coventina]

66. If 3 out of 100 people are dying of something, that is INCREDIBLY HIGH!

At my school, 3% is 430 students!

We do NOT have 430 students die of the flu every year.

[SDANation]

67. So now you are showing your ignorance

Did you read the data on which age groups are dying, abc of those dying, what percent already had preexisting conditions? I’ll save you the time almost all the deaths have occurred in those in the 60-90 age range 80-90 the worst. Of those, a majority had a pre existing condition.

[Coventina]

74. I was using the example of a school to indicate the numbers you were throwing around.

I know the elderly are dying at a higher rate.

They ALWAYS do.

[SDANation]

68. 3% is based on confirmed infections

In the Atlantic article, the epidemiologists explain that there are probably more than 100k infected, so just based on that, the number is actually probably closer to 2%. As it moves further into the population, that number will inevitably go down even further.

[Coventina]

75. Maybe, maybe not. THEY DON'T KNOW!

It is very early days yet with this virus and more is UNKNOWN than known.

Again, for the umpteenth time, where is the hysteria?

And what, exactly, are the experts doing wrong in your uninformed opinion?

[SDANation]

77. In my uninformed opinion,

Like I said trying to contain a virus they don’t quite understand yet by brute force? Just a guess though. 🤷🏻?♂️

[Coventina]

81. So, in other words, you got nothing. n/t

[SDANation]

88. I guess facetiousness is hard to convey through the internet

[Coventina]

98. You're hilarious!

[SDANation]

99. Thanks! 👍

[USALiberal]

32. This is not going well for you. Nt

[SDANation]

34. Thanks for the input.

[Squinch]

27. And I'm seeing 2500 dead and 19000 recovered.

[marybourg]

21. At my age it's 8%.

[Crunchy Frog]

24. Why are you repeating Rush Limbaugh's talking points?

[muriel_volestrangler]

28. As an example of what this "severe cold" can do without precautions, look at the Diamond Princess

Of about 3,700 passengers and crew, about 700 caught it. Say 20%. Say the 2% mortality rate is too high - that it should only be 0.5%. Ignore this "severe cold", let it spread, and that's one thousandth of the population dead. Over 300,000 in the USA.

[flotsam]

79. You might feel differently

If like myself you had been hospitalized 3 times since last spring with flu leading to pneumonia with related cardiac problems...in which case a new virus which some expect may reach up to 70% of the population seems more than a "severe cold" since it may be personally life-threatening.

[roamer65]

12. Proper hygiene can help stop both infections.

Being aware of those procedures is a good thing. Never hurts to be informed.

[marlakay]

97. Are they saying regular house cleaning

Sprays will kill it? And regular soap for hand washing?

If so, then airborne sneezes or touching someone would be whats left to catch it and being careful what you touch in public.

Basically we do those things year round and more so in the winter months.

[roamer65]

101. The virus hates heat and alcohol.

Alcohol hand sanitizer, masks and gloves!

[captain queeg]

16. Hey, if hysterical people end up blaming Trump somehow, I'm ok with that.

I don’t think people are being logical, so why not make it Trumps fault.

[SDANation]

18. 🤣

Agreed! 👍

[meadowlander]

23. Don't worry about either. Take sensible precautions.

And hey, they're the same for both!

No point engaging in viral whataboutism.

If Covid-19 was as widespread as the various flu viruses, it would probably have killed more people.

The point is that there are a lot of nasty bugs going around, somewhat more than normal this year. Get a flu shot once it becomes available. Practice self-care. Wash your hands. Get lots of sleep, eat well and exercise. Isolate yourself if you're unwell to avoid spreading germs. Go to the hospital if you start developing signs of pneumonia.

That's all you can do. Don't stress yourself out about things you have no control over.

[Amishman]

25. Anyone who isn't very concerned about this is a shortsighted fool

It is not what Covid-19 has done so far, it is what would happen if it truly becomes a pandemic.

R values are double that of influenza, so it is really contagious. 3% fatality rate means if it were to go nationwide in the US, you get several million dead. The regular flu can't do that.

Not to mention the impact of the needed quarantines on the global economy. A true Covid-19 pandemic would mean a severe global recession

Even if it is a one in a hundred chance of it going widespread, the potential impact is so severe we should all be a little afraid.

[Sea Turtle]

30. Spot on

The time to try to stop it is now. It is too late once millions are infected and it keeps mutating.

[SDANation]

33. Containment is beyond us at this point.

This is great article explaining where we are at right now with containment and what epidemiologist expect.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/607000/

[dewsgirl]

39. Indeed, an authoritarian regime doesn't destroy their economy

and lockdown 760 million people for what's it been, a month over the flu, something there is already a vaccine for. I have tons of questions, I could go all day.

[ibegurpard]

106. And what can you do about it?

[pansypoo53219]

31. indeed. the FLU has killed 3 kids in WI. no covid sick.

where is a FLU death count?

[dewsgirl]

36. Legit question here, why is the recovery rate so low if

it is nothing more than the flu?

[SDANation]

38. This site

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Is tracking all the data, those who have died so far majority have been in the 60-90 year old range and have had some
pre-existing condition.

[dewsgirl]

41. There have been otherwise healthy doctors in their 20's,

30's, 40's and 50's that have died in China. If you believe the numbers coming out of China while they struggle to recover their economy as of late, I have a bridge to sell you.

[SDANation]

42. We don't know their medical history and if we did it would

Most likely show us some pre existing condition. Fantastic article, I highly recommend
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/607000/

[muriel_volestrangler]

45. "most likely"? If you can point to a reliable source for that claim, do so

If you can't, then you're just making up crap. Your article doesn't make such a wild claim.

[SDANation]

48. Based on the data available

We are not seeing the virus kill the young and healthy. The prevalence of the virus in all age groups is there but it has yet to have a death in the very young, age 0-9. So yes I’m making an assumption by saying “most likely”, doesn’t mean I’m making shit up, it’s a reasoned guess.

Here is the data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

[muriel_volestrangler]

54. No, that's not a "reasoned guess"; it's you ignoring the data that doesn't fit

your pre-conceived notion. When you say "most likely", you have indeed made that up; and it is, frankly, shit.

[SDANation]

69. Per age

AGE
DEATH RATE*
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

[SDANation]

70. Per pre existing condition

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE*
Cardiovascular disease
10.5%
Diabetes
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
6.3%
Hypertension
6.0%
Cancer
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%

[muriel_volestrangler]

78. Which shows that people do die of it without pre-existing conditions

at a 0.9% rate; and the health workers, whom you have just assumed had pre-existing conditions without evidence, fall into the age ranges where people die (ie above 10).

[SDANation]

80. So round up 1/100 with no known pre existing conditions

May die if they contract it...could be undiagnosed or they are just unlucky. So what was so wrong about what I said?

[muriel_volestrangler]

82. You said most likely all the health workers who died had pre-existing conditions

for which you've still shown no evidence; and your aim seems to be to say only the old and weak have anything to worry about. You say it's just a "severe cold"; but it's something that, with the possibility of a significant fraction of the population catching it, could, as I said, easily kill a thousandth of everyone. That is not "just a severe cold".

[SDANation]

83. So why if this is so concerning

Is the media not reporting in depth about the 14k-41k who have DIED directly from the flu this season, including over 100 children. The reason I said that is the probability is high, considering that most of the deaths have been recorded as someone having a pre existing condition. No I don’t know the probability but to assert that “well show me evidence!” is ridiculous. Again, he, she them may have an undiagnosed preexisting condition or like I said just unlucky.

[muriel_volestrangler]

85. You consider one in a thousand dying "just unlucky"

and that makes it "just a severe cold". Your statistics don't say most of the deaths are from pre-existing conditions; they say the death rate is higher for those with pre-existing conditions.

Asking you to show your evidence is not "ridiculous"; it's your assertion that all the dead health workers most likely had a pre-existing condition that is unique, and needs something from someone who knows what they're talking about to back it up. If you don't know the probability, then you shouldn't have claimed you did by saying "most likely".

[SDANation]

84. 6 of 1700 infected have died from the virus. 6.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-infects-healthcare-workers-china-deaths-2020-2%3fa

[muriel_volestrangler]

86. So if a quarter of the USA catch the virus, that's about 50,000 dead

from your "severe cold".

[SDANation]

87. We lose that amount and more to the Flu every year!!!

Again where is the media hype behind the flu deaths? Oh yeah that’s right, they know a majority of Americans will right it off as “just the flu”, so they hype this because fear equals ratings...

[muriel_volestrangler]

90. That's 50,000 *of the young and healthy*

50,000 came from the figure for the death rate of health workers. 50,000 would be a bad year for all deaths from flu in the USA: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html (only 1 year in the 8 listed was above 50,000)

So, no, don't use 3 exclamation marks for an inaccurate claim.

[SDANation]

94. 50 million people died in 1918

And that was before we had mass travel. If an outbreak of severe flu starts to spread, then I’ll be concerned. As of now, covid 19 is attacking the elderly and those with pre existing conditions the worst. The young is being spared, as of now, but if it starts infecting and killing the young and those who are healthy, then we should start to worry.

[SDANation]

91. Just in 2017-2018

61000 flu deaths in America alone.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

[muriel_volestrangler]

93. Yes, the total, for the only year in the 8 most recent for which they give figures

Not, as you exclaimed, "every year!!!". And the 50,000 is for the young and healthy.

[SDANation]

95. Estimate this year is at top 41k.

So yeah it’s not 50k. But 41k Americans is a lot to me. But that’s just me.

[SDANation]

96. So let's take that year the young as 49 and younger

3300 people died that year alone from the flu. If you include the group 49-65, that number jumps to 10,000 flu deaths. And 50000+ for 65 and older.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

[snowybirdie]

40. No hysteria

Just serious concern about it. When one has lung health issues, there is cause. With flu, we get vaccine to prevent it. This new virus has no vaccine, no defense. Normal, young and healthy folks can ignore it. Older and health challenged people cannot

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

92. Lung issues.

Is that like being a smoker?

I have read that smokers are far more likely to be seriously ill or die from this corona virus.

China has very high rates of smoking, especially among men.

[snowybirdie]

100. Not a smoker

Older folks can have lots of lung issues like asthma, copd, and injury. All what my loved ones have suffered. Pray you don't have bad things happen to you through no fault of your own. Seriously!

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

102. True, but smoking isn't something that happens through no fault of your own.

And 85-90% of copd is from smoking.

I'm myself a senior citizen, and I do try to appreciate how fortunate I am to be as healthy as I am, but a significant part of that is never having smoked, generally eating well, keeping my weight at a reasonable point, and a moderate amount of exercise.

[stonecutter357]

61. Donald Trump is a racist pig !

[SDANation]

64. Accurate

[LanternWaste]

72. Please stop the pretense that a curious concern is equitable to hysteria.

Also, please stop the pretense that a curious concern for A denies concern for any other thoughts in our heads... if you yourself are limited to one and only one concern at a given time, that's on you-- try not to project that limitation onto other people.

[BigDemVoter]

89. Thank you.

This has gotten ridiculous.

[peggysue2]

104. I don't think it's hysteria to stay abreast of this particular virus

Yes, the seasonal flu has a high morbidity rate, particularly for the young, the elderly and those with medical issues. Scientists are still learning and trying to understand the spread rate of Covid-19, modalities for early diagnosis and accurate death rates. Many medical professionals and virologists do not think the stats coming from China are entirely accurate though they give Chinese health professionals and private citizens kudos for working to contain the spread. Many risking/losing their lives in the process.

The outbreaks in Italy and Iran appear to be far more severe than the mild-to-moderate cases reported on mainland China. The severe cases of this virus have a high death rate because of the way our immune systems react to the infection.

So panic? No. Being prepared and abreast of the spread? Definitely.

Btw, I started tracking this virus in early January when there were barely 400 confirmed cases. We haven't finished out February and confirmed cases are now over 80,000.

I'd suggest those who are annoyed by the tracking to simply ignore the OPs. For the rest of us, they are a useful update. To be forewarned is to be forearmed. It's a way to actually prevent panic and hysteria in the event that things go south.

[JCMach1]

105. Obviously not paying attention... Wow