In what scenario does Covid-19 NOT break out in U.S.?

[intrepidity]

I simply cannot come up with any way this does not arrive here in force, sooner or later.

We are whistling past the graveyard by not preparing aggressively to mitigate the damage.

It could not occur under a *worse*, least-equipped administration than the current one.

Someone want to try to talk me down? Assure me that this won't be a massive public health shit-show?

The only real question is how soon it arrives.

[unblock]

1. i think the real question is how quickly can a vaccine be created and distributed.

[KewlKat]

12. Several articles today speculate a trial within 3 months, phase 1 they called it. I believe

they will be starting human trials shortly.

USA and WSJ had articles if you care to google.

[unblock]

23. that's encouraging, but it's possible an enormous number of people may already be infected by then..

[DUgosh]

2. I believe we must prepare our families

I had a frank discussion with my adult daughter yesterday - she has three kids at home. She said “Mom your scaring me”

[jpljr77]

4. Please stop scaring her. Is she in generally good health? Are your grandchildren?

Then they should be OK, even if they do contract it. Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but their chances are good without underlying health (specifically, lung issues).

Don't project your fear of the disease due to your age onto her.

[Coventina]

6. Many of the dead were young and healthy with no pre-existing conditions.

Stop lecturing others.

[jpljr77]

7. According to official numbers, there have been ZERO deaths in people aged 0-9.

Here's my link, you care to share yours? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

As with most respiratory illnesses, this is one that impacts older people and people with pre-existing lung conditions.

[Coventina]

11. It may affect them MORE, but plenty of young, healthy people have died from this.

Fewer, yes, but not none.

[USALiberal]

14. Your lecturing! nt

[Coventina]

15. My lecturing what?

[jberryhill]

33. Your lecturing heart

...will make you weep
You'll cry and cry, and try to sleep
But sleep won't come, the whole night through

Your lecturing heart will tell on you
When tears come down like falling rain
You'll toss around, and call my name
You'll walk the floor, the way I do
Your lecturing heart will tell on you

[Coventina]

39. LOL! n/t

[AllyCat]

58. Really? Disaster preparedness should be part of every family's planning.

The Chinese doctor that raised the alarm about the disease at the end of last year? Healthy. Dead. This is NOT just a disease of the old and infirm. Lets plan since our government isn't going to.

[bronxiteforever]

76. +1 so true.

[Tipperary]

47. "A frank discussion."

What did you say to her?

[jberryhill]

50. When a woman and a man love each other very much...

[dewsgirl]

54. lol

[Tipperary]

65. Oh my!

[DUgosh]

63. Her youngest child

Has disabilities and low immunity. Among other things I asked her to consider the possibility of an extended quarantine in late spring or summer, stocking extra supplies required for his condition, planting a bigger garden, and adding new chickens to her coop. And no - someone suggested I was projecting my fears of catching the disease myself and asked me to stop scaring her - to that person I say nothing except read the Center of Disease Control latest advisory. My main concern was for this precious child.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

3. Things finally seem to be starting to happen

I have less faith in this (mis-)Administration than President Obama's but everybody's a**es are on the line here and we have the Democrats in the House, so we have to just hope (I guess) that everything turns out ok and do what we can do, individually. Nobody knows how this is going to play out or how bad it's going to be. There have been some other stuff in previous years that seemed scary but petered out fairly quickly (remember Ebola?)

[defacto7]

28. Yes but Ebola is a very very different disease.

It's extremly deadly but considerably less contagious.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

60. I'm not trying to draw a precise comparison

I understand the differences that we're dealing with here.

[Eko]

5. Here is a good tracker.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[empedocles]

51. Wow! Thank you

[nitpicker]

56. I use that all the time.

[AllyCat]

59. I follow this every other day right now (sometimes daily)

after someone posted it here. It really shows how few people are recovering from this disease. Of the cases in the US (more than doubled due to the Diamond Princess cases), only FIVE have recovered. And I've been using this tracker for weeks. That is an indication of how long many of these people are sick. Can you imagine missing 2-4 weeks of work?? In our culture??

[Hermit-The-Prog]

8. Never fear! The Wall will stop the Chinese hoax!

[meadowlander]

9. None.

The best response is to eat your veggies, get enough sleep, stay home if you are sick and seek medical help immediately if you start to develop symptoms of pneumonia.

On its best day there’s not much the CDC can do to improve outcomes of a pandemic compared with what individuals can do to build up their immune system, prevent the spread and take reasonable precautions.

[Skittles]

17. lots of workers in America cannot stay home when sick

because they don't get sick pay

[meadowlander]

40. Lots of workers in America have health problems

that put them at risk of death if they are infected. Would you rather miss a few hundred bucks pay or be partially responsible for someone’s death or lifelomg pulmonary issues?

Sounds like a good time to start talking to your company about its sick leave policy. They lose a lot more money when one employee infects thirty others than they do just paying the first person to stay home.

[Coventina]

41. Um, if a few hundred bucks means I eat or not, yeah, I'm going to work.

Sorry, but I've been there.

I'm not going to starve in virtuous isolation because we live in an oligarchy.

(that is not where I am NOW, thank goodness, but having been there and having to work when sick, I don't judge those who do).

[meadowlander]

42. My point is that people shouldn't have to make that choice.

But it is still a choice.

I'm going to have severe asthma for the rest of my life because of a bout of pneumonia I went through last year after I picked up the flu from a coworker. That's hundreds of dollars a month I have to pay out of pocket for inhalers (and chose whether I get to eat or not) for something I had no choice at all in. And I count myself lucky I didn't die. I spent a few weeks where that was looking like a pretty good option.

There are very few jobs that are so life and death that there are no better options than making sick people come to work. There's a lot of office jobs people can do at home for a few days. Or you could offer to make up the time picking up extra shifts once you're better. You can sell shit or let the power bill slide or get a payday advance loan. There are other solutions. Your health and the health and lives of the people you come into contact with is more important than any temporary financial problem.

You can advocate for yourself and your coworkers to your boss and put the business case to them that their current sick leave policy is actually costing them money. Now's a great time to do it.

It's not about judgment but it's not about sitting on your hands saying "oh well, what can you do?" either. The people most at risk are children and the elderly. Standing up for yourself is standing up for them as well.

[Coventina]

43. Um, no, it really doesn't work that way.

When I was in that position, I worked at an answering service.
(Something that really doesn't exist anymore).

There was no doing it from home, and there was no working "extra" shifts to make up for lost time. (There were four workstations only).
Sell shit? What shit exactly do poor people working paycheck to paycheck have to sell?

And take a loan from predatory lenders? Why? So they can get even more in debt and make their financial situation even worse?

From your post, it sounds like you have no idea what it's like to be barely making it.

Like I said, I'm not in that place anymore, but the lessons I learned from being there make me a lot more sympathetic to the working poor than you apparently are.

[meadowlander]

45. I have actually been in that position and I am sympathetic.

I was unemployed for about four years thanks to the Global Financial Crisis.

But the reality is that it's better to miss three days pay and go into debt than land yourself in the hospital with complications because you tried to work through a serious illness and then spend the rest of your life paying for medications. Putting someone else in that situation isn't much better.

That's a shit choice but that's the choice people are being given by short-sighted sick leave policies. And the only solution is for people to advocate for themselves and to work together to get those policies changed.

Rail at me all you like but that doesn't change how illness works.

[Coventina]

46. I'm not railing at you. I'm saying "selling shit" and predatory loans are not viable options.

Yes, I think sick leave should be mandatory for all businesses.

But it's not, and so poor people will work when sick rather than go hungry, become homeless, etc.

[Nature Man]

53. Poor people in shitty, non-union jobs

don't get to "advocate" for themselves.

That's called insubordination or "talking back."

What? are you going to say they should "pick themselves up by their bootstraps" or "go to college" so they can get a better job?

[meadowlander]

61. No, I'm saying form a union and stand up together. Call your congressperson. Talk to your boss.

Believe it or not there are 20 countries in the world with mandatory paid sick leave. There are 10 states that mandate paid sick leave (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington). Is yours one of them? No? Call your Congressperson and ask why not.

71 percent of employers offer paid sick leave. If your employer isn't one of them, ask them why when all of the science shows it costs their business money.

Not having sick leave is not an inevitable human condition that follows on from poverty. It is a systemic failure. And we all have the power to effect change if we speak up together, even when we are poor. Thinking otherwise is just learned helplessness.

Why do we have weekends or 40 hour work weeks or a minimum wage or disability pay? Because people were insubordinate and talked back and took risks and made sacrifices. That's how change happens.

All of those rights are slipping now in part because people are too afraid to do what their grandparents and great-grandparents did to win them those rights in the first place.

[Coventina]

64. "Form a union" doesn't work in "right to work states." n/t

[Nature Man]

52. The people preparing your food, building your stuff, delivering your stuff,

selling you your stuff at the store, and cleaning up the messes usually MUST go to work when they are sick.

The "help" doesn't get to talk back.

You seem like a person who has never been voiceless or powerless.

You say, "sell shit:" lots of people only have cheap chinese junk - pawn shop will give you $50 MAX for any tv

You say, "let the power bill slide:" although electric utilities can work with you, once you're behind the 8 ball, it's hard to get out. And don't have trouble paying your payment agreement - then the whole thing becomes due all at once.

You say, "get a payday advance loan:" get for-fucking-real. Predatory, harmful 900% interest loans HELP NO ONE.

The voiceless, powerless folks with the shittiest jobs that have maximum public contact will be the ones going to work when they are sick.

[LiberalArkie]

26. If you think you have the flu etc, let the office know so they can make sure others will not catch i

it

[Ex Lurker]

10. Three possibilities

1. The virus mutates into a less dangerous strain. No guarantees but it could happen.

2. The arrival of summer stalls the spread. There is some indication that the virus doesn't like hot, humid conditions. It is not spreading nearly as fast in countries where the weather is currently warm.

3. Discovery of a quick, inexpensive treatment. I'm hoping the chloraquine trials pan out.

[roamer65]

27. If it still spreads in our summer, get ready for a hellacious fall and winter.

The 1918-1920 flu pandemic continued into summers.

[defacto7]

30. It's already been determined that seasons don't affect it.

[roamer65]

31. That makes it similar to the 1918-1920 flu virus.

It slowed, but it did not stop.

[defacto7]

34. There are similarities in the symptoms among other things.

Very different virus though.

[defacto7]

29. This is not a cold or the flu. The seasons do not affect it.

That was already determind.

[Ms. Toad]

48. Since it has been around for less than one season, it cannot yet be determined

that seasons do not affect it.

The characteristic that makes flu and colds seasonal is that its transission method lends itself to broader distribution in the winter when peole are confined inside with sick people. Since COVID19 transmission works the same way as with colds and the flu, I would expect it to be the same.

[defacto7]

49. Not according to what I've read about the coronavirus.

It's similar to the rhinovirus and not a flu virus. One of the worries about transmission was that it is not affected by cold weather and stays infectious on surfaces for long periods. I've read we need to prepare for a virus that will not dissipate seasonally. Let me know if I'm wrong.

[ibegurpard]

13. When I start to freak out

I ask myself "what can I do about it?"
in this case next to nothing so I'm just not going to worry about it. other than the precautions you'd take with any other kind of flu virus what can you do?

[defacto7]

32. True. I have been telling people to get healthy tho.

Cardio exercise. It won't hurt either way.

[Skittles]

16. a lot of workers in America do NOT get sick pay

so once it takes hold here it will spread quickly

[Coventina]

18. Yup. n/t

[abqtommy]

19. We have reason to hope for the best with new treatments being developed. See link*

* https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213010755

[smirkymonkey]

20. For some reason, I'm just not that worried. Maybe I should be more worried than I am.

My biggest concern is that Trump will try to cancel the election or pull some other dirty trick using the virus as an excuse.

[intrepidity]

69. How about now? nt

[smirkymonkey]

70. Um, nope.

Still not that worried

[intrepidity]

71. Ok. Will check back soon

[smirkymonkey]

72. I suppose once I run out of TP and can't get any more (like now), I will

really start to worry. But I am pretty much set for about 2 weeks at least. Also, I might get really bored due to this company imposed quarantine. We'll see.

[Baitball Blogger]

21. You know those call ahead grocery pick-ups at Walmart?

They are going to be the next big trend.

[Beartracks]

36. I was thinking that, too. Avoid those grubby cart handles. But then...

... it occurs to me that someone will have handled each of my pick-up items, and I have no idea where their hands have been.

==========

[Baitball Blogger]

38. Guaranteed rubber glove service per customer?

My husband said that when he flew up for business he saw two types of people wearing masks. Chinese passengers and food restaurant servers.

[dewsgirl]

55. It is very convenient. My only issue is, I wish they wouldn't do the

substitutions.(I wish they would contact me.) We just started using it last week.

[cwydro]

73. You can opt out of substitutions, they ask you each time.

Last edited Sun Mar 15, 2020, 10:26 AM - Edit history (1)

[dewsgirl]

74. Yes, now that we've been using it, I am happy to see that.

My DIL placed the first order.

[cwydro]

77. The subs actually work for me. Wanted two six packs Perrier, but got one six pack Perrier

and a 12 pack Pelligrino.

Usually, whatever you don’t get, they give you double of the substitute!

[dewsgirl]

78. Nice, we ordered a party size frozen lasagna, they substituted

3 family sizes, so that worked out.
Very convenient, I don't know what took me so long to use this service.

[DarthDem]

79. Glad that's working out for you!

It's good to hear some positive stories amid all of the others. Thanks.

[cwydro]

80. It's great!

Make sure you do the survey afterwards and remember the associate’s name.

I always give them high marks; they do a great job!

[denem]

22. Senario: Covid-19 'breaks out' in Mexico and MF45 has to close the border.

[JCMach1]

24. Only the lucky AF one... It's firmly one step from the major airline hubs

If it hits Dubai, London, Netherlands, Germany, Paris we are getting it...

[roamer65]

25. None.

It will come here.

The 1918-1920 flu pandemic came during that time in about 3 waves which varied by location.

One of the waves was in the US and it killed about 675,000.

[defacto7]

35. True.

No telling if it will have a similar outcome. WWI exasperated it and medical care was primitive comparatively. 50 to 100 million deaths worldwide.

[metalbot]

37. I'll talk you down

I don't think this is going to be a health crisis in the US, but I think the reaction to the potential health crisis is going to be a financial crisis.

If the US were getting to the point of having what we suspected were thousands of carriers out in public, you'd see massive closures in the US. Factories would shut down. Sporting events would shut down. Schools would close. Government offices would close. Essential services would need to remain open, but you'd see far fewer people deciding to go out to eat and sit in a room with strangers. Those measures, along with a massive effort to disinfect everything in public places, will likely prevent a massive spread of the virus. Unfortunately, you might have to keep these measures in place for an extended period of time.

Don't fall for a 24/7 news cycle that literally has every incentive to make you worried so that you watch the news.

The economic impact that a shut down as described above might have would be enormous. Most Americans don't have the savings to weather through several weeks without a paycheck if their employer shuts down, and many employers couldn't make payroll even if they wanted to keep people on. When employers stop paying, people stop spending, leading to further cutbacks by employers, leading to more people off of work. For many middle-class Americans, a sudden interruption in income now means that they can't pay their mortgages, and we'll see a spike in defaults. That spike in defaults will drive down the housing market, making defaults more likely since people can't even sell their homes for what they owe.

[intrepidity]

68. Still stand by your post? nt

[metalbot]

81. More or less

My Feb 28 post: If the US were getting to the point of having what we suspected were thousands of carriers out in public, you'd see massive closures in the US. Factories would shut down. Sporting events would shut down. Schools would close. Government offices would close. Essential services would need to remain open, but you'd see far fewer people deciding to go out to eat and sit in a room with strangers. Those measures, along with a massive effort to disinfect everything in public places, will likely prevent a massive spread of the virus. Unfortunately, you might have to keep these measures in place for an extended period of time.

I think it's playing out pretty much exactly as described - we're averting the health crisis by taking drastic measures that impact the economy, and those efforts, in conjunction with greatly ramped up testing, are going to let us control the spike to manageable levels. More importantly, we're going to be leaving these measures in place for a long time.

I think it comes down to what you consider to be a "massive public health shit show" as referred to in the OP. The Trump administration's handling of this has been a total shit-show, but leadership at the local and state level has been far more coherent (on the whole).

I'll be surprised if COVID-19 is one of the leading causes of death in the US this year for any age group. That isn't to minimize the severity - this is NOT "just the flu", but the actions we're taking to control the spread are completely unprecedented. Also, surviving the illness may have long term health effects that impact both quality of life and longevity. On the plus side, everything that we do to prevent COVID also works for the flu, so we might also see a reduction in flu related fatalities.

[cwydro]

44. Bookmarked.

Seriously folks.

[intrepidity]

67. Update?

Still rolling your eyes?

[cwydro]

75. As long as people keep buying rolls and rolls of toilet paper, I'll keep rolling my eyes.

So yes.

[dewsgirl]

57. It is already here, but they aren't testing for it, unless you

have been to China therefore they don't add to the numbers.

[Mike 03]

62. CDC: Not a matter of "if" but "when"

Link to tweet

[intrepidity]

66. So, I repeat.... nt