Bad News For Trump As Poll Shows Impeachment Helped House Democrats

[applegrove]

BY JASON EASLEY

Bad News For Trump As Poll Shows Impeachment Helped House Democrats

A new Gallup Poll revealed that support for House incumbents is at its highest level since 2012, which means impeachment didn’t hurt Democrats

https://www.politicususa.com/2020/02/24/bad-news-for-trump-as-poll-shows-impeachment-helped-house-democrats.html

"SNIP......

According to Gallup, “Democrats have a solid majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, and the elevated 59% of Americans saying their member of Congress deserves reelection augurs well for their bid to maintain their majority next year. This assumes, however, that the 59% holds for the remaining nine months before Election Day. If Americans still feel their member deserves another term at a similar level closer to November, this could mean a favorable environment for Democrats’ prospects of maintaining power in at least one chamber of Congress.”

Trump thinks that he is going to use impeachment to get his revenge on Nancy Pelosi for impeaching him, but the numbers suggest that if Trump tries to win back the House, he will be wasting his time.

The conventional wisdom among Trump supporters that impeachment would hurt the House Democratic majority is turning out to have been very wrong. Impeachment has made House Democrats more popular with voters back home in their districts.

While the nation is focused on House and Senate races, it looks Speaker Pelosi is going to guide House Democrats to a smooth majority victory in November.

......SNIP"

[DarthDem]

1. Yay!

Thanks for sharing this, applegrove. And although Sen. Sanders is not my candidate I don't think Democrats will lose the House if he's the nominee either. I actually saw a comment at Daily Kos yesterday - in largely pro-Sanders thread but from a Warren supporter bemoaning the "certain" loss of the House if Sanders is the nominee - that "voters just don't ticket-split anymore." Huh? They ticket-split all the time!!!

[empedocles]

5. Would like to see how the new Dem flippers [red district Dems who won in 2018],

in particular, are doing.

Reportedly, they avoid BS like a bad virus.

[catbyte]

12. Here in MI-08, Elissa Slotkin won a narrow victory in our red-leaning district.

Electionprojection.com has her eking out a narrow victory. She's up +3.3% in the polls. We'll have to work hard to keep her, but I'm cautiously optimistic. It's hard to overcome all of the MAGAts in Oakland County, but we did it in 2018.

https://electionprojection.com/michigan-8th-district-election.php

[jimfields33]

6. Yep all this stuff about sanders is not accurate

Can we please nominate him now?

[joost5]

15. The House is probably safely Dem, but the Senate?

Nothing will get done as long as Moscow Mitch is still majority leader. We need to flip the Senate to get progressive legislation passed. Which is why we need independents and moderates to side with us.

[onetexan]

28. Agree. Let's support Amy McGrath and contribute to her campaign if we can to kick Moscow Mitch to

the curb. We need to get rid of this traitor.

[joost5]

37. https://amymcgrath.com/

Hope everyone reading this takes a moment to kick in a few $s for this American hero. Bless.

https://amymcgrath.com/

[lastlib]

45. Check out the Payback Project!

Payback Project

Donate here

[Phoenix61]

2. And Gallop runs conservative.

I’m not surprised. They did a great job.

[gratuitous]

3. You mean acting like Democrats helps Democrats?

I wonder if anyone else has stumbled across this bit of political wizardry?

[Wounded Bear]

20. Perhaps acting like patriots helps politicians in general...

Just sayin'

[stopdiggin]

38. the political wisdom of impeachment was NOT at all

a sure thing. And there was a good bit of concern that there would be a cost, particularly in vulnerable districts. That prospect is still there .. with this article really only saying that overall favorability is up. That might not hold true at all in contested seats. Hope that doesn't prove the case, but .... Pretending there was always nothing but an up side ...

In short .. "acting like Democrats helps Democrats?" .. kinda depends. It's complicated.
-- --

[gratuitous]

40. I disagree

The net effect was, to my mind, always going to be a plus for Democrats. Yes, some people were going to be turned off by the "oh my stars and garters!" partisanship of it all. Or at least they'd pose like that. But far more people were going to be engaged by the impeachment proceedings, and get an eyeful of some of the corruption of the Trump administration.

In our current environment, there is no such thing as a "nothing but an up side" path. But Democrats might as well act like Democrats and a true opposition party. There will always be carpers and fault-finders, nervous nellies worried about "going too far" no matter what Democrats do. Democrats would be far better served, in my opinion, to stop holding themselves hostage to the most timid, lest someone be offended by the party standing up for its claimed principles.

[stopdiggin]

41. I can agree with you (broadly) on principal

and still think there is a possibility for (tangible) political costs tied to this, or really any other, action.

Given the current political winds .. I find my "nervous nellie" cap makes perfect sense for the time and place. I'm currently much more focused on winning than I am on than statements of principal (again, speaking in broad terms). I agree that impeachment was the right thing (perhaps the only thing) to do given the circumstances. But the post I responded to would seem to infer that this was an inevitable "win." No down side involved. And, strictly in terms of politics, I'm saying, "not so! .. or at least, not necessarily."

[Mickju]

4. That's excellent!

[ibegurpard]

7. While this is certainly not set in stone

I think I can say with confidence that if Democrats had ignored all of Trump's abuse of power and chose not to impeach him, despite a virtual guarantee of it going nowhere in the Senate, it would have hurt them more than doing everything they could to hold him accountable.

[OliverQ]

8. Then why did his approval go up the past 2 weeks?

[Grasswire2]

10. Look at 538 aggregates -- you'll feel better

[link:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/|

[OliverQ]

13. I don't, because 43% is still terrifyingly high

for a corrupt, deranged tyrant like Trump.

[stopdiggin]

39. and there WAS a bump

which was discouraging as hell
(and a little bit scary)

[Chemisse]

29. Yes, that is encouraging. I like the matchups with other presidential terms too.

It's surprising how low Reagan was in his first term.

[kiri]

44. suppress their support for Trump and local Democrats. In order to burst forth on election day.

The evangelicals--Trump is god's choice, trump can do no wrong__ is extremely powerful, and Trump pumps them up every day. You underestimate their power. Their organization and resources. They will turn out their vote in numbers.

In fact there is an organized scheme --- family values, focus on the family, Franklin graham, Falwell, etc.---to

This not a CT, but is a real conspiring /colluding/working in concert. It is machiavellian, but will likely be successful.

The liberal progressive/democrats have no influence on the evangelicals, who will vote against their own self interests, to reaffirm their faith beliefs.

The Federalists are already celebrating.

[lagomorph777]

11. Statistically insignificant and the plummeting stock market will hurt him a lot.

[OliverQ]

14. I doubt it. Stock market crashes don't seem to hurt his approval.

[Mr.Bill]

21. There hasn't been a signifigant one since he's been in office.

What I worry about is he can just blame any crash now on the Coronavirus.

[OliverQ]

27. The 5 biggest single day drops in US history have all been in the last 3 years.

[Chemisse]

30. Except he is responsible for any damage done by the coronavirus.

Since he cut funds and personnel for just such a situation. He OWNS this.

[Mr.Bill]

33. I agree, but he will deny it

and his base will believe him.

[Chemisse]

34. But the swing voters are likely to see what's really going on at this point.

His base is a lost cause.

[Mr.Bill]

36. True. n/t

[klook]

22. Has there been a prolonged market downturn during this misadministration?

If so, I don’t recall it.

A 300-point drop in the Dow followed soon thereafter by an uptick isn’t going to hurt any president. But a real recession in an election year would be a different story.

[Mr.Bill]

32. No, there hasn't.

But that just makes it all that much more likely eventually.

[Ilsa]

9. Whoever the nominee is, I'd like to see

Bloomberg and Steyer run ads showing the stupid, illegal, mean shit he's done over 3 years.

[bucolic_frolic]

16. Democrats proud of the case they made and the way they made it

So yes that subtlety is something that should solidify long term support.

[LAS14]

17. Whew!! I hope our choice of a nominee doesn't interfere with this! nt

[mountain grammy]

18. They stood up for the law.

Bravo 👏 and it turns out the majority of us still do.

[C Moon]

19. Thanks applegrove. Great news!

[FBaggins]

23. The argument is internally inconsistent

A new Gallup Poll revealed that support for House incumbents is at its highest level since 2012, which means impeachment didn’t hurt Democrats

One does not follow from the other. Incumbents are always reelected at a high rate. The question is what's happening in the 40-or-so districts that were red in 2016 and blue in 2018.

The number is quite close to where it was at the same point in 1994 and there was quite a change in the House that Fall. It's also right where it was in 2006... another year where control changed hands.

[Mr.Bill]

35. Bit since '94 some of the gerrymandering has been eliminated

by the courts.

As a Californian, I think our gains in the House in '18 remain solid, and I could even see us picking up a few more.

[ZERTErYNOthe]

24. Not hopeful

I've lived through too many of these polls. Exit polls where Gore won. Exit polls where Clinton won. (yes I know, exit polls are different). Polls where Clinton was in the lead against Trump. Similar with many past elections. I could go on.

I don't believe we will have an honest outcome. Remember back in the old days when voting tallies ran through a server run by Ken Blackwell? And after that, when Karl "Turdblossom" Rove couldn't believe the numbers coming in, and on live television said (paraphrasing, don't have the video handy) "you have your numbers, I have THE numbers", and threw a fit when he didn't? He couldn't believe it. Related is Michael Connell, that's an interesting read.

There are also Statistical anomalies that only seem to occur in US elections, and only seem to occur in a few strange locations, and only by enough to skew the results slightly, just enough, and those results can't be audited.

I know that all here have concerns about voting integrity, which is valid. Until that is addressed I don't believe these polls mean anything. It's like thinking Mueller or Fitzgerald will swoop in and save us, or thinking a Republican Senator has integrity.

[klook]

25. Excellent.

I support Democrats no matter what, but I would have been sorely disappointed if House members had just sat on their hands and watched while Trump burned the country to the ground. I’m very proud of the collective effort it took to expose his corruption and prove to every American that the Republican Party is a criminal enterprise through and through.

[Kurt V.]

26. great!

[DenverJared]

31. This makes me feel relieved

I was afraid of the worst and that we'd lose the house because of it

[LudwigPastorius]

42. Losing the House if unthinkable if Trump ekes out another 4 years.

Trump with absolutely no checks on his power would be a dagger to the heart of this country and its constitution.

[cstanleytech]

43. This is why the Russian Republicans in the House and Senate like Moscow Mitch

are courting Putin for his assistance.