The "Chuck Todd Theory of American Politics"

[Dave in VA]

Very interesting read about polling.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

[marble falls]

1. There are swing voters. Maybe not as many this election as others, but they exist ...

The polls sure show a lot of undecided voters.

[Cosmocat]

2. She is not wrong for the most part

agree that WHO votes is the key. Also, she absolutely nails the concept of the "independents." People cheer on the ranks of republics shrinking, but you can't swing a dead cat without hitting an "independent" who relentlessly slags on democrats and spews GOP talking points. Most "indys" at the very least lean strongly one way or another.

I will say that people totally discount the way that Republicans, the media, foreign powers are swaying elections by negatively framing democrats generally and specifically candidates.

Democrats are tying one hand behind their back by refusing to go after the republic brand H A R D.

Hillary lost because of decades of hate framing, then the Benghazi and e-mails. Because of this she was a weak public figure (not HER PERSONALLY, what people think of her).

Hillary is a decent and highly capable public servant. Drop mic. But, even democrats were peeled away from her by the decades of republican slander against her.

[Wellstone ruled]

3. There are the Single Issue Voter

that can and will determine Caucus results if organized. Run into that over the decades when a group shows up with a agenda,usually some anti group.