Why Are President Trump's Poll Numbers Going Up?

[riversedge]

umm.. transient?? Feeling rather blue lately.




Why Are President Trump’s Poll Numbers Going Up?


https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/why-are-president-trumps-poll-numbers-going-up
By Josh Marshall
|
February 4, 2020 11:55 a.m.


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538’s composite average has notched up a couple points over the second half of January and this morning Gallup released the highest approval rating of Trump’s presidency: 49%.

Why is this happening?

The most straightforward and daunting answer is that he is getting more popular.............

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This is daunting and sobering given the consequences of President Trump being re-elected.

But there is another plausible explanation. Pollsters call it differential response. When one side gets enthused or energized their numbers go up but in an ephemeral fashion. The pumped-up side is a bit more eager to answer the phone or fill out the survey. The demoralized side is a bit less eager. This is a real and demonstrated phenomenon, not just a concept or speculation. It’s not necessarily an error per se in the polling. It’s picking up something real. It’s just ephemeral.

One example many of us likely remember came after the first general election debate in 2012. President Obama turned in a stiff and disconcertingly flat performance. The consensus was that Mitt Romney won the debate and for the first and last time in the cycle Romney briefly pushed into the lead.

There are good reasons to think that at least some of that is happening today — the President’s impending acquittal and Republican unity have been the driving news of the last two or three weeks. Republicans are energized and enthused by the certainty of President Trump’s acquittal. Many Democrats are demoralized by seeing an overwhelming and exacting case made for the President’s guilt and seeing it simply not matter.

We’ll only know once impeachment is over and all of this has a chance to settle. I’m pretty confident that at least some of this is ephemeral differential response. But I am not confident that’s all of it. We just don’t know and won’t know for a while.

[Quemado]

1. It's only February.

The only poll I'm interested in is nine months away. A lot can happen in nine months.

[underthematrix]

2. Psyop

[krissey]

3. Impeachment. Why Pelosi took so long and found an ironclad crime to go after Trump.

She new that it would give Trump what he needed to increase his numbers. While everyone was demanding impeachment from the get go, Pelosi knew better. Even with the kick ass job the Democratic house did, and regardless of the foolery of Trump, Pelosi knew it would increase Trump favorably.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

12. His cultish base might rally for a little bit, but there's no proof yet that this is enduring.

Doing nothing would have been a mistake IMHO.

[krissey]

13. I do not think it is enduring at all. I think he will get a little bit more with SOU address.

But it is not solid. imo

[Proud Liberal Dem]

15. Right

We'll have to suffer a few days of him "appearing Presidential" if he doesn't drool all over himself at SOTU, but, in the end, it will change nothing we already know about him and he will continue his destructive behavior.

[krissey]

16. Ya, lol. That. Even the drooling won't change the dialogue.

[John Fante]

4. Clinton saw his popularity skyrocket after his impeachment.

His approval ratings were well north of 60%..

In comparison, Gump's mini-bump (pushing him up to a still-mediocre 43%) is hardly worth crowing about.

[crickets]

5. +1

[riversedge]

6. But we all knew he would. yes. we. did.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

14. Clinton's approval ratings went up

because everybody could see that Republicans *were* really out to get him. Trump, by comparison, still pretty much just has his cult supporters and everybody else knows he's guilty as sin and getting off in the Senate simply because the Republicans are in the majority and have no desire to lose out on the benefits of keeping him in office.

[Wellstone ruled]

7. Believe the hard number is 40%

If you understand Gallup,they tend to sample more registered Rethugs than Dems.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. The timing is interesting

It seems everything is being spun into a blender as being a particularly disastrous day for the Democrats- The Iowa Caucus and Democrats at each other's throats (with some claiming rigging by the dastardly DNC), The 49% Trump Approval Gallup Poll, SOTU Address, which I'm sure will be Trump crowing out his new "Kingly" status and his pending acquittal, etc. Perfect storm of bad news. It shall all pass, though

[abqtommy]

9. Everybody knows that poll results are determined by the highest bidder at Polls R Us.

[bdamomma]

10. it's that

Russian propaganda.

We are the majority correct??????

Polls can be inaccurate.

[Hortensis]

11. People drawn, even a little bit, to authoritarian leaders need them

to be strong men, winners. Even those who don't like Trump are going to be favorably impressed, or reassured, by the strength displayed.

This was expected. A year ago we knew a removal effort would not be successful, not without actually catching him giving the nuclear codes to Putin, and perhaps not then since the defense would be it didn't happen.

What's interesting is how little approval has gone up. Of course, that's in part because it never dropped all that much either. He'll be back at 46 or so shortly.

[octoberlib]

17. Morning Consult was 40%

So, who's right?