General Discussion
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(60,014 posts)abqtommy
(14,118 posts)The_jackalope
(1,660 posts)it's going to turn into an S-shaped sigmoid or logistic curve at some point. It will lose its concave quality, turn convex and eventually flatten out. The flattening-out will happen because of a number of effects - better containment, development of vaccines or natural immunity, the lack of further infectable population etc. The 64-million-patient question is how high the curve will go before that happens.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function
Right now we seem to be on the curve at about the "-4" point on the graph above. The curve will look more or less exponential until "-2", the it will (gradually) lose its exponential character.
Response to global1 (Original post)
Ms. Toad This message was self-deleted by its author.
Ms. Toad
(34,073 posts)and a transmision rate (R0)of roughly 2.6
last Saturday 2019 confirmed cases
Tuesday @ midnight ~5431 (predicted by 2019 x 2.6^1 calculation - 5249.4)
Today @ 7?30 - 13983 (predicted by 2019 x 2.6^2 calculation - 13648)
Prediction for next Tuesday (absent a slow down) - 2019 x 2.6^3 - 35486
Prediction for next Saturday (absent a slow down) - 2019 x 2.6^4 - 92,263.
We'll see. I've been told I'm making crap up - but the Tuesday and today's predictions are pretty darn close.
Delphinus
(11,830 posts)admit that I was watching the BNO News site all day and it kept the same number (around 11,350) until a bit ago and then went from that to the 13,000+ number to 14,553 just a bit ago.
Ms. Toad
(34,073 posts)so I wasn't surprised to see a second update (and perhaps a third around 11)
I don't **want** the virus to be rapidly spreading and deadly, but I also get cranky when I'm using real data, and valid calculations, then get stomped on by people who don't seem to know much about the exponential spread of contagious illnesses.
So since we are still heading in the direction I predicted (and nothing any of us can do to stop it at the moment), I am taking some perverse pleasure in how close the actual numbers are to the predictions I made a week ago.
uppityperson
(115,677 posts)There huge jump in#s is because they are finally admitting they have an outbreak. Now that that had happened, now that that they know it's a problem, other countries can be on watch for it so #s will rise again.
Yes, true infected #s are increasing, but it's not spreading from 4 cases to 20000000000 in days.