Fort Bend's special election was first battle of the 2020 war between Texas Democrats and GOP
he day before Texas Democrats wrapped up their Don Quixote adventure in Fort Bend County this week, party members released a list of almost two dozen state House districts they think they might be able to wrest away from Republican incumbents in November.
And in spite of the Democrats’ comeuppance in House District 28, where Republican Gary Gates beat Eliz Markowitz by 16 percentage points, there are good reasons to keep paying attention to the partisan competition ahead.
The lists of competitive races are similar no matter who is pulling them together and range from 20 to 30 seats, depending on the list-maker. Journalists, political scientists, consultants, donors and the parties use many of the same tricks: past election results, mostly, seasoned with turnout forecasts, polling, assessments of the political environment and of the popularity or lack of it at the top of the major tickets. The Democrats, for example, had 22 House races on the list they released Monday.
Contests where the results in 2018 were tight — under 5 or 10 percentage points, for instance — make the lists. Districts where otherwise safe incumbents have made dire political mistakes are open to conjecture. Incumbents in districts where the other party’s candidates won the last presidential or U.S. Senate races, or both, rank high.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/01/31/fort-bend-was-just-first-battle-2020-texas-elections/
