The coronavirus: what you should pay attention to

[Coventina]

The comments I have seen that dismiss the concern about the coronavirus don't seem to understand these facts:

Currently, the number of deaths is larger than the number of recoveries. That has remained true since I started following the stats a week ago.

More and more people are getting sick at an increasing rate, and they are STAYING SICK. This virus is slow moving, and the symptoms start mild and gradually become life-threatening.

This means it could be at least another month or so before a full picture of how this virus operates emerges.
By then, we will have potentially millions of people sick, and if the pattern holds true, more dying than recovering.

This is potentially VERY serious stuff.

[mr_lebowski]

1. You know what? This planet needs an enema ...

Easy for me to say, I really don't get sick.

Stay safe everyone!

[Coventina]

2. I'll admit, I'm following this out of a morbid misanthropy

Our species is a horrible one.
We are on a collective threshold of understanding our power and our responsibility and the need for action.
And, collectively we are rejecting wisdom or even sanity.

Therefore, we need to go. The planet will be SO much better off without us.

[mr_lebowski]

9. You know I hung that one over the plate for ya ;)

[Coventina]

18. Hehe! I sure do!

[cwydro]

14. Amazing to see people here wish misery on others.

Last week there were DUers wishing for a spike in oil prices, now here are some wishing for a pandemic.

I wouldn’t believe it if I didn’t read it right here.

[Coventina]

19. Always lovely to see you, my dear!

[cwydro]

21. How many sick or dying will give you that thrill you're looking for?

Personally, I really hope they get a handle on this soon.

[Coventina]

22. What thrills me is the huge dose of power and influence you attribute to me.

It's much appreciated!

[cwydro]

24. Glad to be of assistance in an area of need.

[mr_lebowski]

23. I root for gas to be $10/gallon myself ... but NOT if it's just because of oil companies gouging us

But rather because it's physically becoming harder to extract oil from the ground cheaply. And/Or borderline-punitive taxes meant to curb use, purposefully.

IOW I want there to begin to be actual scarcity, because that's the only POSSIBLE way the world is going to freaking get serious about climate change and fixing this absolutely unsustainable, perpetual growth-based economy we're locked into right now. It's a death spiral my friend.

It's not about 'wishing misery on people now', it's about caring about the other creatures on this planet AND caring about future human generations!

Cheap petroleum has a LOT of drawbacks, whether people care to admit it or not.

[treestar]

53. Agreed

Horrible things to say.

[jcgoldie]

15. People ask me "why don't you have kids?"

I tell them "That's my gift to the earth is not making more humans."

[mr_lebowski]

25. +2

[saidsimplesimon]

52. My daughter was not planned.

Today, she is my best friend. Who knew?

[samnsara]

39. i dont want to go... I like it here

[scheming daemons]

8. This disproportionately impacts the poor.

Rich people have the ability to get top notch medical care and survive the thing.

[mr_lebowski]

10. You mean it's exactly like every other disaster there's ever been throughout all of human history?

[Coventina]

20. This could have the potential to affect everyone but the billionaires. n/t

[mr_lebowski]

28. Even they could be affected, it's just probably less likely they'll die from it.

However, it could turn out that some people are just 'gonna die no matter what if they get this virus' then some billionaires might get it and die, health care resources notwithstanding. Too early to know.

I'm not rooting for a pandemic, to be clear, but I am able to see possible advantages to it happening in terms of planet health. It's called 'making the best of a bad situation'.

Coping, if you will

[JoeOtterbein]

3. "More and more people are getting sick at an increasing rate, and they are STAYING SICK."

+1000%

Very worrisome for everyone.

As for me, tomorrow morning I'll be boarding a flight from LAX to Reagan National.

[dewsgirl]

29. They seem to be downplaying this very important point in

the news.

[Pachamama]

4. I have been watching the stats closely as well and agree completely

I also don’t think China is giving us all the info, so we are dealing with incomplete data.

I think by the end of February we will be lucky if it’s not over a million sick and over 20,000 dead.

I fear too that not enough is known about the incubation period and also that the recovery period is indeed so long and that the death rate is going to substantially outpace the recovery rate and that will not bode well for moving forward.

I wonder at what point the WHO acknowledges this is as being more serious than they have.

And I worry about how the US is handling this. Germany just ended all commercial flights to China on Lufthansa and is quarantining people. What is the US doing? Are United and Delta flights coming still from China. Just because someone doesn’t show a fever or signs yet is not a sign that they aren’t carriers.

[Coventina]

5. I saw a news story (yesterday I think?) that American Airlines pilots were going to sue

to stop flying to mainland China.

It seemed a little strange to me.
Sue?

Just say, "I'm not flying there."
Or, do a sick out.

[Pachamama]

6. Irony would be a "sick out" by pilots...

[Coventina]

7. GMTA!

[Ms. Toad]

16. Unless it speeds up

(Shortening the current 3.5 day generation, or increasing the R0), a million won't come until sometime in March. When it gets there, you're right about the number dead (absent a change in the death rate).

[dewsgirl]

32. I saw a chart about how things would look by the

end of February, if the statistics stay at the rate they are now, it was very scary.

[Thekaspervote]

11. For those interested in following stats and info about the virus

Look at the morbidity mortality report published weekly by the cdc. You can find it online. Currently there’s nothing there, but if it begins to impact the US it will be a great resource

[Sherman A1]

12. Thanks for the tip

[spinbaby]

13. Corona virus is related to the common cold

It seems to spread as easily as the common cold, which makes it particularly dangerous. Ebola had a much higher death rate, but didn’t spread easily, so it was containable. This may not be containable.

[Ms. Toad]

17. It isn't clear to me that that number reflects all of the recoveries.

In normal viral tracking, recoveries aren't tracked. Infections are, since samples are tested. Deaths are - since we record why someone died. But, aside from release from the hospital where recoveries would be reported. For example -when I had a bit of a cold from the last lettuce fiasco, I duly reported it to my doctor. I have not reported to him that I recovered. Unless I die, at some point be will assume that I recovered -but there isn't a built in tracking system, the way there is for deaths and infections.

[still_one]

26. +++

[LonePirate]

27. Any word on the patient in WA state who was quarantined 11 days ago?

Is he better/worse/stable?

[Phoenix61]

30. Where are you getting your data from?

I’ve never seen “recovered” in any stat. New infections and deaths, but never “recovered”. Also, new infections can only include those who seek medical care and many won’t for this. Most will have mild symptoms.

[cwydro]

33. Good question.

[herding cats]

36. Here's a link where you can find the current number of listed recovered

Note, these are from confirmed cases which were being tracked. There are potentially underreported mild cases which wouldn't be represented in these numbers.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Coventina]

37. Johns Hopkins

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Phoenix61]

42. I get wanting to use #Recovered in a calculation but statistically you can't do that.

You don't know the initial sample size and it's not total confirmed cases. The first case was December 8. I'm quite sure more than 187 have recovered since then. Based on confirmed cases (9776) and number of deaths (213), it's right at .0217 = 2.2% which was the initial prediction (2-3%) I heard. My guess, is the number recovered is based on hospital discharges and that initial sample size those would ones who got so sick they had to be admitted.

[Coventina]

44. Perhaps you ought to take that up with Johns Hopkins?

If they are disseminating incorrect information, then they need to be made aware of it.

[Phoenix61]

46. I'm sure their numbers are correct.

My point was using number recovered to infer lethality was bad statistics.

[Coventina]

47. They seem to be inviting that by posting the numbers side by side. n/t

[Phoenix61]

48. I completely agree. It's misleading. nt

[Ms. Toad]

54. They can only report what is collected.

As I noted above, there are natural collection points for confirmed cases (the testing centers) and for deaths (since the cause of death is reported as part of the formalization of death via death certificates). There is no natural collection point for recovery statistics - aside from release from the hospital for those who were ill enough in the first place to be hospitalized, which is likely to be only a fraction of those infected.

Speaking personally, unless my doctor asks me to report back to him, and I actually do, there is no natural collection of recovery data for most illnesses. As far as any formal data goes, for example, my daughter still has an active case of chicken pox (from when she was 14 - 15 years ago). She had a confirmed diagnosis - and would have been included in any data of confirmed chicken pox cases for that year. But we followed the doctor's instructions about when she would be allowed to go back to school, absent any complications, so there is no formal documentation that she ever recovered.

So - it isn't that it is incorrect. I'm sure they are accurately reporting the data they have. But that datais very unlikely to be incomplete complete in all categories (and more incompete in the recovery categoy than the other two, because of our routines for collecting data).

It's up to those of us using the data to ask questions and confirm what the data represents before using it to model and make representations. I'm not using the recovered data in any modeling I'm doing because I have significant doubts that it represents anything close to an accurate recovery number.

[Leghorn21]

31. The last count of fatalities yesterday was 213 - and that hasn't changed today, so - something's up

These are good sources, but - if the Chinese government is clamping down on releasing stats, then

William Wang
https://mobile.twitter.com/williamyang120

China Bureau Chief
@WSJ
.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jchengwsj

CNN live updates
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-31-20-intl-hnk/index.html

[dewsgirl]

34. They don't report until 3pm in China, usually early evening

here.

[Leghorn21]

35. Copy that, girl, standing by

Thank you

[dewsgirl]

40. I watch this guy he live streams in the afternoon, he only uses

reputable sources. It doesn't come on until around 3 or 4, it's not a set time, but he streams for hours.

[Leghorn21]

43. Yeah, you turned me into him a couple days ago and I checked a billion times after that but he

was never there, grrrrr - will check him again later today, many thanks!!

[dewsgirl]

49. If you don't get him, you can message me and I'll let you

know when it comes on. The one I just posted for you is from the middle of the night. He's been streaming a few hours, then takes a break and comes back on like an hour or two later.

[dewsgirl]

57. This will go live at 5:05 pm.

[samnsara]

38. ..I agree and as of LAST NIGHT we have a suspected case in my town of 30,000...its a University town

...so students come from everywhere. The CDC will determine today if student is positive. Very possibly will be.

[dewsgirl]

50. We have some in Florida as well.

They seem to have not confirmed any but 1, since the weekend. I don't believe them.

[herding cats]

41. Coventina, you might enjoy this twitter list.

It's 44 experts (epidemiologist, etc.) who are working on the the tracking of nCoV2019.

They post some extremely interesting papers.

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/lists/1220869298631200769

[Coventina]

45. Thanks!!

[herding cats]

58. You're very welcome!

I hope you're finding the discussion enlightening and interesting.

[Silver1]

51. Detailed stats:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[TeamPooka]

55. The planet is trying to reject the human virus infecting it.

[tandem5]

56. I think it's irresponsible to draw a strict correlation between death and recovery counts.

If you do a cursory search on the mortality rate I think you'll find the general consensus is that it's too early to get an accurate number, but it may be somewhere in the single percentage points.