TX-HD28: Voters in the Houston area will head to the polls today for a special election runoff
DEEP IN THE HEART — Voters in the Houston area will head to the polls today for a special election runoff for a state House seat that’s attracted outsized attention, as Democrats plot a takeover of that chamber — and a seat at the policy- and map-making table in Austin — this fall. They need to flip nine seats to gain control in what would be a coup for congressional redistricting; Texas is poised to gain at least two seats in 2022.
The race pits Democrat Eliz Markowitz against Republican Gary Gates, and Democratic groups have poured hundreds of thousands into the district against the self-funding Gates, who has the backing of national Republicans, as well as Gov. Greg Abbott’s political machine. Top Democratic presidential candidates have also backed Markowitz, including Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Mike Bloomberg.
Democrats hoping to flip the state House are looking for a head start on the process, but also note that HD-28 — while on the state Democratic Party’s list of 22 target districts — is not among the most competitive districts they’re trying to flip en route to a majority. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke, who has lent his starpower to Markowitz’s campaign, lost it by just 3 points in his bid to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz, making it the sixteenth-most-favorable district (based on 2018 margins) for Democrats out of their 22 targets,
Notably, there is some level of expectation-setting from Democrats who have invested in the race as well. A memo circulated by Forward Majority — a Democratic group focused on legislative races that’s invested more than $400,000 in this particular election — read that this election is “an important contest,” but shouldn’t be viewed as a bellwether. A win from Markowitz would be “a thunderclap upset,” the memo read. Forward Majority also brought up child abuse accusations against Gates from 2000 in an ad, charges which Gates denies and long fought.
Republicans, too, have taken notice. “Democrats are clearly managing expectations after spending the last three weeks talking a big game in the district," Aaron De Leon, political director for the pro-Gates Associated Republicans of Texas, told The Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek. "Now as early vote tallies roll in, they are trying to save face at the last minute as Fort Bend voters are clearly rejecting their radical progressive agenda.” Svitek reported that early-voting turnout has been big — more people voted early now than in the November special election — and that an analysis from the Gates campaign found that 53 percent of the early vote was Republican, 30 percent was Democratic and 17 percent was independents.
Even still, this seat, located in Fort Bend County, could bring valuable lessons for both House Democrats’ prospects in the Lone Star State and the battle for the statehouse. It has similar demographic trends to most of the seven congressional seats that the DCCC is targeting in 2020. Voters in HD-28 backed Mitt Romney by nearly 30 points in 2012, while President Donald Trump won it by just 10 in 2018.
https://www.politico.com/morningscore/
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Go Houston!
Turn Texas Blue!!!!
