Amy Walter: Wisconsin is Ground Zero
One of the hallmarks of the Trump presidency is that no matter how unpredictable and erratic he may be, opinions of him are incredibly stable. At this point in 2019, for example, the FiveThirtyEight tracker showed President Trump's job approval rating at 41percent, with 55 percent saying they disapproved of the job he was doing as president. Today, he clocks in at 42 percent approve to 53 percent disapprove. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
The good news for Trump: He has a durable floor. Even as the country is divided on impeachment, support for him has not collapsed. The bad news: He has a low ceiling. Even as approval ratings of his handling of the economy continue to tick up, they aren't translating into broader support for his presidency. The most recent Quinnipiac poll showed 57 percent of Americans happy with the job Trump was doing on the economy — the highest showing of his presidency. However, his job approval rating was 14 points lower at just 43 percent.
The other important reality of this era is the degree to which national polls have become less helpful in assessing Trump's electoral college strength. A president sitting at 42 percent approval, with "strong disapproval" outweighing "strong approval" by 10-12 points is not going to win the national popular vote. But, that doesn't mean he can't win the Electoral College.
And, in assessing the Electoral College reality, there's no better place to check into than Wisconsin. It is ground zero for 2020. And, for a good reason. Trump won the state by a little over 22,000 votes. In 2018, Democrat Tony Evers defeated GOP Governor Scott Walker by just 29,000 votes. And, while President Obama had little trouble winning the state in 2008 (12 points) or 2012 (7 points), then-Senator John Kerry carried the state in 2004 by just 11,000 votes.
https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/checking-wisconsin
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