The Secret Origins of Presidential Polling

[brooklynite]

Governing

In the spring of 1935, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was worried about his reelection.

He was especially concerned about Louisiana Sen. Huey Long, who had created a Share Our Wealth organization, purportedly with 7 million members. It promoted a program so radical – extremely high taxes on the rich and stipends for all Americans – that these days it would make Elizabeth Warren seem like a Republican and Andrew Yang’s Freedom Dividend look cheap. I examine Long’s program and Roosevelt’s New Deal in my books “Bold Relief” and “When Movements Matter.”

Sen. Long had no illusions that he would beat Roosevelt in 1936, but he was playing a longer game.

His plan was to siphon enough votes from the left that Roosevelt would lose to the Republican nominee, whom most thought would be former president Herbert Hoover. Then Hoover would so foul up the economy that the Democrats and the electorate would have to turn to Long in 1940.

In April, Democratic National Committee chief and Roosevelt campaign manager James Farley sought help from Emil Hurja. A private stock analyst and self-taught pollster, Hurja had done some polling for Farley regarding the 1934 congressional elections. Now Farley wanted his pollster to ascertain Long’s potential as a spoiler.

Hurja devised sample ballot postcards asking whom the public would support in the upcoming election: President Roosevelt, an unnamed “Republican Candidate” or Senator Long.