Internal polling and media buys.

[hifiguy]

I have been reading post-mortems of presidential elections going all the way back to the Nixon era. All campaigns have internal pollsters on whom they rely.

There is one hard truth that always applies whether the campaign is a Democrat's or a Republican's: All allocation of media resources in every campaign is determined by internal polling, not the Gallup/AP/Rasmussen/whatever numbers used by the press.

If - I say IF - Willard is pulling media buys in certain states it means one thing and one thing only: the numbers are bad and trending worse. It is never a strategic retreat, especially in "battleground" states. It is a sign of desparation. More and more eggs are being piled into fewer and fewer baskets. Romney always had a thin margin for error, but given the numbers about his laughable Latino and African-American support and the widening gender gap that margin for error has essentially vanished. It means he has one foot in the grave, the other on a banana peel and he's hanging on to a kite in terms of electoral votes.

Yeah, it's inside baseball but it is very revealing to look at these particular chicken entrails.

[Avalux]

1. Didn't McCain do the same thing at about the same time four years ago?

I remember then thinking it wasn't good, that they knew they were on a slippery slope.

[Jennicut]

2. I agree. Even is he has a lot of money,

he won't spend it on states that he won't win. But how would he win without Ohio? It would be very hard for him. David Shuster said President Obama's internal polling for Ohio was +9. Even if that was the best day out of that polling, Romney must be at least 4 points behind.

[get the red out]

3. I guess there's bad and there's worse

Ohio might be bad, but perhaps Wisconsin and Michigan were worse?

[PearliePoo2]

4. Thanks for the info!

I imagine campaigns keep this data pretty quiet and to themselves? (unless it's leaked, of course!)

[nanabugg]

5. I can olny hope you are correct. Would love to see Koch and Adleson loose huge sums of money in a

loosing, undemocratic effort.

[nanabugg]

6. Wait, wait...the real reason for pulling those ads is because they are now proven lies.

Can't keep doubling down on lies when they have been expoused. Those ads are giving the GOP a really bad name.

[WCGreen]

7. I have bought time for campaigns before...

But it was a while back.

From what I remember, the deal is you can reserve time with projected media buys but you have to pay for them at least two weeks ahead. After that, you have to pay cash for the time.

[opiate69]

8. It`s also breathtakingly stupid strategy to do it today

When the DNC is in full swing, garnering almost universal positive coverage, and the big news out of RMoney`s camp is what can easily be seen as a full speed, tail between the legs retreat. Way to steal their thunder, Mittens!

[Qutzupalotl]

9. With unlimited funds, I'm surprised to see this happen.

In theory, they could hit up the Kochs or Addelson and get whatever they need to blanket the airwaves in those states. That's what I thought, anyway. Do you think maybe the well is running dry, in that the billionaires don't want to throw good money after bad? That's the only explanation I can come up with.

[greenman3610]

10. groups pulling ads out of Michigan

Mitt Romney's conservative allies are bypassing Michigan with their advertising while stepping up efforts in other battleground states — suggesting campaign strategists don't believe his road to the White House leads through his native state.

The pro-Romney groups American Crossroads and Americans for Prosperity are pouring nearly $13 million into advertising in key states, indicating they remain eager to lend considerable financial muscle to Romney in states viewed as truly competitive.



From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120906/POLITICS01/209060394#ixzz25j27LefF