KS-SEN: With Pompeo Out, Kansas Senate Moves From Likely to Lean Republican

[RandySF]

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will not swoop in to be Republicans’ savior in the open Kansas Senate race ⁠— at least for now. That decision puts what should be a slam-dunk contest in further jeopardy and only widens the possible paths for Democrats to reach a Senate majority.

After flirting with a bid for months, Pompeo informed Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell this week he wouldn’t leave the administration and return home to run despite their entreaties. His decision came amid increasing tensions with Iran following a U.S. airstrike that killed military commander Qassem Soleimani. Some Senate GOP strategists do believe he was close to getting in until everything that transpired over the past week, even though there were other signs he was getting cold feet too.

With Pompeo not running, former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach remains the frontrunner in the August 4 primary. National Republicans have outright said that the controversial Kobach can’t win a general election after losing the 2018 governor’s race by 5 points to Democrat Laura Kelly. In private polling, Republicans have Kobach losing to likely Democratic nominee Barbara Bollier, and Kobach leading every other Republican in a head-to-head except Pompeo.

Add in the fact that Democrats have a strong recruit in Bollier ⁠— a former Republican state senator who cited Trump as one of the reasons she switched parties in Dec. 2018. After former U.S. Attorney Barry Grissom dropped out of the primary in mid-October and threw his support behind Bollier, the DSCC did too. And just this week, Bollier announced an impressive 2019 Q4 haul of more than $1.1 million.

All those factors make it more imperative for Republicans to try and find any way for Kobach not to be their nominee. Republican strategists expect there to be a push to unite around one anti-Kobach candidate, and 1st District Rep. Roger Marshall does seem to be the most likely alternative. However, many Republicans think he’s been underwhelming so far as a candidate and that he needs to show better fundraising too to be competitive. At the end of October, Marshall did have about $1.9 million in the bank because of a transfer from his House account. However, he could have trouble uniting hard-core conservatives. Marshall has a low score with the Club for Growth, which opposed him in the 2016 primary, where he ousted incumbent GOP Rep. Tim Huelskamp.



https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/kansas-senate/pompeo-out-kansas-senate-moves-likely-lean-republican

[NewJeffCT]

1. I liked Grissom quite a bit

he was a US attorney under Obama and, polling had him 10 points ahead of Kobach - wonder why he suddenly dropped out and then supported a former Republican?

[RandySF]

2. I wasn't thrilled with Laura Kelly at first, either

But she’s pretty good as far as Kansas goes.

[MuseRider]

4. She is doing a great job here.

She is not your typical politician but she is loving this job and it shows. She has a horrible situation with our legislature but hopefully we can change that back to something more reasonable.

She is making things happen, changing a lot of the crap left over from Brownback and that is going to take a huge effort for longer than one term. So far so good, she is getting some things done and identifying all the crap that was hidden from easy view and there is a load of that stuff, written up as something far different than it was. Sam was a lot of things but stupid was not one of them. I think Laura is going to clean it up and is doing a great job.

Would I like a radical lefty in the office? Oh yes I would. She is not that but she is smart as a whip and she will figure it out and make them like a lot of it.

[OliverQ]

3. If Kobach wins the primary it might move to lean Democrat

[redstatebluegirl]

5. I would not be surprised to see Kobach win in Kansas.

I have family there and they are right of Attila the Hun. They love Kobach, my cousin, who is the nuttiest one of all, thinks Pompeo is a RINO. Really Dave?

[DeminPennswoods]

6. The Rs tried that tactic with Roy Moore in ALA

and it didn't work. The GOP primary voters are even nuttier than the regular GOP voters, so expect Kobach to win.