Just announced on MSNBC: Romney/Ryan pulls ads from Wisconsin!

[berni_mccoy]

They are giving up on that state. WOW!

Ryan should be embarrassed.

Romney/Ryan campaign focusing on 8 states: OH, FL, VA, NC, NH, CO, NV, IA

Pulling ads from MI and PA as well.

[C_U_L8R]

1. They're in full retreat

no prisoners ! no prisoners !

[cyberswede]

2. They have so much money...why are they pulling ads?

This seems really weird to me. Isn't the whole point of getting gobs of corporate cash to be able to saturate the airwaves in the short time before the election? Are they going to go crazy with ads in October?

[gkhouston]

3. That's all I can figure. n/t

[MjolnirTime]

9. They would just be throwing money in the trash in Wisconsin ala Meg Whitman.

[Hutzpa]

13. Maybe 'the so much money line' is a hogwash

who knows....

[wryter2000]

76. I'd like to think so

Just wild speculation...but what if the big money backers, such as Adelson, have figured out to save their money and not support them. That would be the only reason I can think of they wouldn't be swimming in money.

[tsuki]

85. I thought that so much money was being funneled to the

SuperPacs and the campaign was not flush. Did the SuperPacs pull ads also? Or are they taking up the slack?

[Drahthaardogs]

86. If they had that much money

they would have to spend it elsewhere. Available airtime is finite. Something else is going on.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

91. The money is mostly pledges, not cash. The billionaires didn't get rich by investing in black holes.

[tanyev]

92. Maybe it's getting funneled through companies like Base Connect.

BMW Direct, the GOP fundraising firm known for taking long-shot candidates for a ride while raking in big bucks off their campaigns, has re-emerged under a new name — but with a similar modus operandi. And this time around, even some Republicans are crying foul, with one consultant accusing the firm of engaging in “sub-prime fundraising.”

One 2010 client of BMW Direct — now rechristened as Base Connect — is William Russell, the retired lieutenant colonel who is running for the Pennsylvania Congressional seat of the late John Murtha. Russell’s campaign raised over $895,000 in the fourth quarter of last year, according to federal disclosure records. But it paid over $719,000 of that amount — about 80 percent — to Base Connect, and other companies associated with it, which ran the company’s direct-mail fundraising program. For the year as a whole, Russell’s campaign raised over $2.8 million, but spent over $2.6 million — much of it again going to Base Connect — leaving it with cash on hand of just $211,000.

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/03/shady_gop_firm_still_raking_in_the_bucks_while_its.php

[Journeyman]

32. All the money in the world can't sell a bad product. . .

[HooptieWagon]

36. Could be several things.

Maybe they're going to use the money to hire boots on the ground in the other states? Maybe they're going to spend on voter suppression and election fraud? Maybe they're redirecting the money into Senate and House races? Maybe the billionaires see the presidential election as a lost cause, and closed their checkbooks? Could be any of those.

[Major Nikon]

59. Maybe the voting machines are already pre-programmed

[Myrina]

66. My thought exactly.

[ruffburr]

72. The GOP Makes it embarassing to be an ol white guy

Could be alot of things,But i don't trust these bastards,I wonder what sneaky tricks thier getting ready to pull ,Rigging the vote?, or Have they paid off electoral college ?(which needs to be done away with) My point is these bastards are not gonna give up the good ol' boy way of life they have had all these years without a fight to the death!!!! So try to get everyone you know to vote

[Evasporque]

38. the ads are doing more damage than good....

they screwed up big time...

[Evasporque]

42. without voter ID in place in Wisconsin, they can't win....nt

[AlinPA]

57. They have billions with SuperPACs and are waiting until October to buy out the air time and mailers.

[calimary]

69. I've heard they plan to carpet-bomb Obama starting tomorrow, using SuperPAC money.

Which means we then plan the new national "Jeopardy" game: How gullible is the American electorate?

[Honeycombe8]

94. That's what I was thinking. They're drowing in cash. nt

[BeyondGeography]

4. They're running out of states

Literally and figuratively.

[yardwork]

52. They're going to need a bigger state. /nt

[regnaD kciN]

5. I find this very hard to believe...

...especially when combined with similar reports from Michigan and Pennsylvania. There's simply no way the G.O.P. would give up on three crucial swing states they desperately need this early in the campaign, particularly when the polling numbers were so close.

My guess is that they've got enough Adelson SuperPAC money in those states to handle all their advertising, allowing them to spend their own money elsewhere.

[berni_mccoy]

11. See my update below

They chose 8 states to fight in: OH, FL, VA, IA, CO, NV, NH, NC

[fugop]

18. Ah, OK.

At least this makes sense. I prefer this to not knowing what the hell they're thinking. I don't think they can grab all those, but at least it now makes some sense.

[AlinPA]

58. Agree. Adelson can easily spend a billion or two in PA, MI, OH, FL.

[alp227]

61. Well, PA has voter ID law now.

The state house majority leader openly bragged the law would help Romney win.

[berni_mccoy]

6. Update: No ads in Michigan or PA as well.

Focus for Ads for Romney Campaign is on OH, FL, VA, NH, NC, CO, NV, IA

[Dawgs]

26. If true then they've conceded 265 (with Ohio) to Obama.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=wrJ

I can't believe they would be that stupid.

[berni_mccoy]

68. 247. They haven't conceded OH yet.

But yeah, they need to win every one of those. Obama only needs a couple.

[madmom]

71. ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014220614

[berni_mccoy]

98. OH MY!

[LondonReign2]

31. He needs to sweep every single one of those in order to win

Hail Mary!

[get the red out]

7. Wonderful!!!!!

I needed this boost today, great news.

[Fresh_Start]

8. do you think that there's a chance for the senate seat in WI? nt

nt

[Scuba]

39. Absolutely. Tammy Baldwin is a terrific candidate and her opponent is a washed-up drunk.

[Poiuyt]

49. He's a washed up drunk, but he's leading by about 9 points

[Ellipsis]

54. He's a washed up womanizing drunk..so say the whispers in the capital and I'll give you 7 points up.

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 8/15 - 8/21 1190 LV 50 44 Thompson +6
Marquette University 8/16 - 8/19 576 LV 50 41 Thompson +9
PPP (D) 8/16 - 8/19 1308 LV 49 44 Thompson +5



Marquette's good but the sample is too small


It'll be tight but... she can pull it off.

[Dawgs]

10. If he's already giving up on WI, MI, and PA then this thing is almost over.

Also, Shuster said last week that Rove was pulling out of Ohio.

Seems fishy to me that they would give up this soon on states they absolutely must win.

Either someone is lying or it's much worse than the polls are showing. I'll take as good news for now.



http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=wrJ

[amandabeech]

53. There are plenty of auto-related jobs in Ohio.

When Mitt says that GM and Chrysler should go bankrupt, he has to understand that his position will finish him in Michigan, and that his job will be more difficult in Ohio.

[Sherman A1]

73. This thing was over before it started

all one needed to do was watch the GOP primaries.

[randome]

12. To do this before the Democratic convention is even finished shows how pathetic they are.

They are conceding the election. All that remains is that we use their weakness to ensure that they NEVER get the upper hand on America again! Grind them into the dirt!

[Baitball Blogger]

15. What would concern me is that they're now going to save their gun powder for 2016

[wryter2000]

78. I think that's what they've been doing all along

I don't think they've ever thought they had a good shot this year. That's why they had such a pathetic collection of candidates.

[truebrit71]

79. Let's get through this November first eh?

We can worry about 2016 later....of course by 2016 the economy could be roaring, we'll be out of Afghanistan and the republicans will have eaten themselves in the inevitable purge/night of the long knives that will follow the ass-kicking Rmoney/Ruin get this fall...

Let's hope so!!

[fugop]

16. They're kind of freaking me out.

I'm not a "Rove is GENIUS!" type, who always assumes they've got something up their sleeve, nor am I of the Rachel "Talk me down!" Maddow camp (circa 2008), but Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin? They're starting to freak me out a little. What the hell are they planning? I'm assuming they're just going to bombard the airwaves with a whole new strategy?

[titaniumsalute]

17. So let's get this right...

Mitt will lose the state he was Governor...Mass. He will lose Nevada, home to the Mormon Church. He will lose Michigan....where he was born. He will lose Wisconsin...home of his VP. WOW!

[tomm2thumbs]

19. I'd like to see Arizona, home of last elections nominee go Blue - !!!

I think it's headed that way... hopefully sooner than later, but inevitable is the word to watch.

[Tansy_Gold]

25. Nevada is not "home" to the Mormon Church; Utah is. n/t

[titaniumsalute]

70. Of course it is...up at 3:30 this morning I'm a little tired.

Salt Lake City, Nevada. LOL. Thanks for straightening me out.

[JBoy]

20. Maybe the Koch bros are about to pull a Bain on the Romney campaign.

Declare it a loser, shut it down and squirrel away their money.

[Blue Belle]

46. If only wishing made it so...

It would be pure poetry if that actually happened...

[Bernardo de La Paz]

88. I think they are. They don't throw money away or invest in black holes.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125187983

[Robbins]

21. Oh man

Their Internal wisconsin ads must be bad If they are pulling out.

Hopefully this can help Tammy Baldwin In her senate race.

Romney will lose MA.May lose NH.And Ryan will lose wisconsin.Remember when republicans used to bash Gore for not winning
Tennesse.

[hifiguy]

35. Spending decisions are ALWAYS made on the internal

polling. Never on the public polling. This could shape up to be a huge victory for the President.

[NotThisTime]

22. What's his polling in that state? I thought he was up? Why pull ads? Voter suppression at play?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

23. But.......but........but.........

I thought that RP said that Wisconsin is "in play" this year b/c of Scott Walker's recall victory? Guess not. At this point, maybe Romney/Ryan should pull themselves from the rest of the campaign?

[sinkingfeeling]

24. This isn't some sort of strategy, is it? Could they be pulling their ads in Wisc.,

PA, and Michigan because their super-duper packs will fill in the air space?

[KharmaTrain]

27. How About The SuperPacs?

Why spend your money when those groups are flush with folding green and can be a lot more negative without having Bishop Willard's name on it. Is Crosswords GPS or the Americans for "Prosperity" (snicker) still running their slime? If so, it allows team Rmoney to spend in states where he needs to build image and can possibly win.

I don't discount this being an important move but its still a bit early to say a state is being given up. There's going to be a deluge of anti Obama and Democrat spots in the weeks and months ahead...and they will get nastier and more shrill as November 6th approaches. My hope is there's a saturation point that has or will be reached where the money spent not only had no effect in favor of the rushpublicans but begins to backfire...

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

40. That's what I was wondering, too

Those bottomless coffers will probably fill the gap.

[SunSeeker]

44. Exactly. All the money is in the anonymous SuperPacs, who are NOT pulling ads.

We can't get cocky or complacent.

[LondonReign2]

28. Very odd

Given how close the public polling has portrayed this state to be, its very odd, particularly with Lyan on the ticket

[TheCowsCameHome]

29. Why on earth would they do that?

[Auntie Bush]

30. They're pulling them because now (after Clinton's address) we all know they are based on lies.

I'll bet those old ads won't be shown anywhere in the future. They're going to have to produce all new ads. That will take time and be expensive. Thanks Bill!

[krawhitham]

64. THIS

[get the red out]

33. I just realized how many Congressional spots I see

Here in KY 6th we are constantly bombarded with Republican (PAC) ads for their man, Andy Barr against incumbent Democrat Ben Chandler. These spots cost money too! If they are going all out to try to get rid of our "blue dog" Representative I would imagine they are doing the same elsewhere that might be taking up quite a lot of available PAC funds, even if their corporate masters seem to have unlimited cash.

[11 Bravo]

34. I've got a good feeling about my Old Dominion. I think we're going to break Mitt's heart!

[Sugarcoated]

37. Hmmmm

I agree, this is fishy . . . we have very smart campign people thinking the same, I'm sure.

[lpbk2713]

41. From what I have been seeing ...

they might as well give up on Florida too.


Hell, they might as well give up on the whole damn election. All they
have left is the hardcore RW base and that isn't a hell of a lot.


I love the way this is turning out.

[michaelslomo]

43. Not convinced

Even if they did indeed pull some ads from Wisconsin, I'm not convinced this means Wisconsin is a lock. I mean, the Walker recall victory in June, the selection of Ryan in August--one would think this would help them. The pulling of ads now could be just temporary. A couple of up-to-date polls on Wisconsin would give a better indication.

[Brother Buzz]

45. An occasional dose of Schadenfreude is good for the soul

[Ellipsis]

47. Their negative ads would hurt their senate and house campaigns here...

That's my freak at the moment losing the senate and not getting back the house

[mick063]

48. The answer to this is intuitave and simple

The one percent tightwads would rather walk on a bed of burning coals than concede a living wage to an employee.

The moment Romney looked like a loser, the money dried up.

Now Mitt must pay his own way and he is selectively buying ads to avoid embarrassment as opposed to winning.

Mitt hasn't conceded. The one percent is. When they pour cash down the bottomless sinkhole called Tea Party, they are quick to cry uncle.

[Poiuyt]

50. I thought that after Ryan was announced as running mate, WI was basically tied?

[Liberal_in_LA]

51. why pulling ads so early, they have so much money. ???

[Bernardo de La Paz]

90. The money is mostly in "pledges", which can be withdrawn.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125187983

[drm604]

55. Apparently the superpacs are also pulling ads.

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/09/conservatives_for_mitt_romney.html

Mitt Romney's allies have pulled their advertising from Pennsylvania and Michigan while redoubling efforts in other battleground states. The move indicates that at least for now, efforts by outside groups to help Romney compete in more states have stalled.

The pro-Romney groups American Crossroads and Americans for Prosperity are pouring nearly $13 million into advertising in key states, indicating they remain eager to lend considerable financial muscle to Romney in states viewed as truly competitive.

There are no presidential campaign ads of any kind currently airing in Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to information provided by media trackers to The Associated Press. While the Romney campaign has spent almost no money on advertising in either state, conservative groups have spent $20 million on ads for him in Pennsylvania and have spent $8 million on ads in Michigan.

[Blue Idaho]

56. Their chances of winning in November are approaching... "Z E - R O"

Thanks Big Dog!

[Initech]

60. And take your bullshit Koch-loving friends with you!

[standingtall]

62. I never thought they had much of a chance there anyway.

[Texas Lawyer]

63. Next, you will see them pull ads from NH and NV because Romney hasn't lead in any polls in either of

those two states in forever (WI, MI, PA, NH, and NV are reasonably safe Democratic states in the presidential election just as MO is a reasonably safe Repub state for Romney).

If you assume that President Obama and Romney will each carry those states where they have lead every poll for months and where FiveThirtyEight gives one side or the other a better than 80% chance of a win, the states that are no longer close enough to be fairly considered "swing states" give President Obama a 66 Electoral College vote advantage:

257 - President Obama
191 - Romney
90 - swing state

Of these 6 swing states, President Obama leads 5 and Romney leads 1:

Ohio (19 electoral votes - President Obama has lead the polling average for over a year without interruption)
Virginia (13 electoral votes - President Obama has lead the polling average since Jan 31 without interruption)
Colorado (9 electoral votes - President Obama has lead the polling average for over year without interruption)
Iowa (6 electoral votes - President Obama has lead the polling average for over a year without interruption)
Florida (29 electoral votes - President Obama has lead since Romney chose Medicare-killer Ryan as his running mate)
North Carolina (15 electoral votes - Romney has lead the polling average since May 16)

To win, President Obama can:

1. Win Ohio (no matter what the outcome in the other swing states) or
2. Win Virgina (no matter what the outcome in the other swing states) or
3. Win Florida (no matter what the outcome in the other swing states) or
4. Win North Carolina (no matter what the outcome in the other swing states) or
5. Win Colorado plus any other swing state (no matter what the outcome in the other swing states) or
6. Win Iowa plus any other swing state (no matter what the outcome in the other swing states).

This is just a snapshot of the race based on polling after the RNC but before the DNC (which should be Romney's high-water mark).

I suspect we will see unparallelled nastiness and efforts at vote theft in these 6 six swing states because Romney basically has to sweep them in order to win. The fact that Romney has pulled his big money advertising in WI, PA, and MI confirm that he is aware that the election will come down to just a few states that are still in play, and Romney is trailing on all but one swing state.

[Myrina]

65. Disconcerting ...

... WI, OH, FL are very obviously states that voting machines could be Koch-blocked in the GOP's favor, so why 'waste the money' on ads/campaigning ... I'm not sure about the others, though. Anyone?

[silvershadow]

74. I am as concerned as you are about the machines...

(computers). But wouldn't they have to pull more than one state at this point? I don't really know, just guessing...Would they be that brave/bold?

[Arugula Latte]

95. One factor, though, is they would have to make it look close enough to steal

At least, you'd think they wouldn't try to steal if the polls showed them down more than, say, three or four points. But I don't know for sure.

[Terra Alta]

67. giving up already?

wow, they must not really want to win this thing. Either that, or they know they have no chance.

[Fuddnik]

75. Either that, or holding back for a last month-long blitz.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

77. Good luck with the whole "Kill Medicare" thing in Florida.

[Samantha]

80. Nate Silver predicts President Obama has a 79.5 chance of carrying Wisconsin

Now, if Paul Ryan is defeated in his quest for the house while losing his bid for VP, life would be grand again.

Sam

[Greybnk48]

84. From your lips to a gods ear! n/t

[Mr.Turnip]

81. Didn't McCain start pulling out of states around this time last go around?

Or was that in October.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

89. October

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125187983

[Tx4obama]

82. K&R n/t

[DallasNE]

83. I Thought He Already Pulled Ads In PA

It is also interesting that Romney is currently closer in both WI and MI than in either NH or NV.

Unless I'm mistaken Romney would need to win OH, FL, VA and NC to win with giving up on WI and he is currently leading in only NC (by 2%).

[thesquanderer]

87. and possibly Ohio as well

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014220614

[Stinky The Clown]

93. This is very surprising to me. I thought they had shitloads of money

I'd hate to be trying to watch teevee in one of those 8 states!

[ecstatic]

96. Did Adelson pull the plug after seeing 2 nights of our convention?

Sorry Willard, I don't invest in lost causes.-A

[DonRedwood]

97. ssssuuuuhhhhhwwwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeeet