Navy Confirms Boat Swarm Seen Alongside Carrier Group In This Satellite Image Was Iranian

[jpak]

This was from Dec. 27, 2019!!

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31521/navy-confirms-boat-swarm-seen-alongside-carrier-group-in-this-satellite-image-was-iranian

The U.S. Navy has confirmed that "multiple" small Iranian boats running alongside the Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and other ships from her strike group as she sailed through Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman earlier this month, as seen in commercial satellite imagery. The service has rejected reports that any of the Iranian craft harassed or otherwise acted provocatively toward the carrier, saying the activity was within "normal behavior patterns." Still, the image of 18 small boats in very close proximity to Lincoln and her escorts is eye-opening and a stark reminder of the inherent risks of each transit through the Strait.

A PlanetScope satellite belonging to private satellite imagery firm Planet Labs, part of a constellation that takes images of much of the Earth every day, caught Lincoln making the transit out of the Persian Gulf by way of the Strait of Hormuz on Dec. 4, 2019. The image circulated for days in various formats on social media, causing considerable debate within the open-source intelligence community about what exactly was going on in the frame. Some media outlets, including in Iran, picked up on the narrative that the IRGC had "harassed," or at least "escorted," the Carrier Strike Group out of the Strait in a successful challenge to the United States amid a new spike in tensions between the two countries. We can now put this debate to rest.

"During the transit, multiple Iranian vessels followed the U.S. ships through the strait," U.S. Navy Commander Joshua Frey, a public affairs officer for U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), told the War Zone in an Email. "Their activity was within normal behavior patterns for Iran and did not threaten the Abe [Abraham Lincoln] strike group."

The satellite image shows what could be as many as 18 boats following Lincoln around 20 miles northwest of Oman's Musandam Peninsula and some 30 miles from Iran's Qeshm Island.

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[TreasonousBastard]

1. So? This, like other straights, is subject to international and maritime law...

treaties, and common practice.

It could easily be argued that Iranian boats have more of a right to be there than the US Navy.

[FBaggins]

2. There isn't much that they could do to a carrier

Iran has some anti-ship capacity from the land... and the IRGC glorified speedboats have some ability against oil tankers... but I wouldn't worry about them being able to do anything to a carrier, cruiser, or destroyer.

[jpak]

3. A lot of them are armed with rockets and short range missiles

Which could be launched by a swarm like that - with little time to react.

[BannonsLiver]

4. Say goodnight

To clear up the confusion, aircraft carriers aren’t unarmed. They have a myriad of defense systems any one of which could turn these fearsome gunboats into splinters before they knew what happened.

[jpak]

6. I realize that - but against a simultaneous attack by dozens of missiles and rockets

the ship's self defense systems would be overwhelmed.

And if they concentrated on the escorts (destroyers and cruisers), they could degrade or destroy their radars.
'
Leaving the carrier open to land-based ballistic and anti-ship missile attack.

And mini-submarine attack

The Iranians have hundreds of fast attack boats and over a dozen mini-subs in the area.

They have trained for this for decades.

[FBaggins]

7. That's not as plausible as it sounds

We're talking about a handful of patrol craft "escorting" the carrier through a choke point when hostilities were not anticipated. They don't carry enough ordinance to "overwhelm" a carrier.

Nor does Iran really have "hundreds of fast attack boats". Most of them are the equivalent of a Zodiac or 3-person pleasure boat. The IRGC has a few dozen actual patrol craft.

In an actual warfare scenario, they wouldn't be allowed to get close.

[jpak]

9. You can see them using Google Earth all over Qeshm Island

and Bandar Abbas

And in actual warfare, Iranian drones and cruise missiles could never successfully attack a major Saudi oil production facility.

Or could they clandestinely place limpet mines on oil tankers.

Can you say Millennium Challenge 2002?

[FBaggins]

12. You're missing the point

The drone attack on Saudi oil production was not "in actual warfare"... it was a surprise attack when no significant conflict was going on. By "actual warfare" I mean that if Iran actually wants to fight a war, the Navy takes most of those assets out before they even enter the battlefield.



Or could they clandestinely place limpet mines on oil tankers.

Seriously? They hardly did any damage at all to the tankers... which had no capacity to fire back (or even know that they're there). You can't run a limpet mine attack on something carrying CIWS/RIM-116 and attack aircraft.

You can see them using Google Earth all over Qeshm Island

They're mostly this size or smaller. With limited to zero anti-ship capacity.

[jpak]

13. No - you are missing the point - Asymettric Warfare

It's a real Thing.

[FBaggins]

15. Are you sure that you understand the term?

The very point here is that any actual warfare scenario would be very asymmetric.

That isn't in Iran's favor.

Iran's forces are designed to threaten shipping and impact the global economy... they aren't designed to go head to head with the US Navy... no matter how many barges they mock up to look like a carrier.

[FBaggins]

5. Useful against a tanker... but not much to a carrier

The hull is too strong. Only that second image (a "Thondar" - a copy of a 1960s Chinese model) even carries something with a significant warhead. The rest of them fall close to the "ruin some sailors' day having to repaint that spot" category.

"Load the boat up with tons of explosives and blow yourself up" would do a number on the escort ships... but only if the crew was asleep.

[jpak]

8. But they can also deploy lots of mines - ahead of the carrier group - on short notice

which could do serious damage to any warship.

[FBaggins]

10. Not in an actual warfare scenario

Mines aren't exactly easily targetable... and the Navy would know where everything moving on the surface within dozens of miles was if actual fighting was going on.

They were able to mine a US frigate in the late 80s... but the results were the loss of about half of Iran's usable fleet at the time and no loss of life on the frigate.

[jpak]

11. That is why they did not invest in frigates or large warships after Praying Mantis

But instead invested in small boats, ballistic missiles, drones and mini-subs.

Also. even the threat of mines is enough to disrupt naval operations in the Gulf.

[FBaggins]

14. That moves the conversation well beyond the OP

As I said, they have some anti-ship capacity on land and can certainly mess with shipping... but a dozen patrol boats shadowing a Nimitz-class carrier does not pose a threat to the carrier.

[sarisataka]

16. What is happening is fairly obvious

Per the article the Lincoln is leaving the Gulf, the mean Iran is to port (left). The purpose of the Iranian boats is three-fold:

-the are "protecting" Iran by placing themselves between Iran and the USNavy ships

-they are setting up propaganda by showing Iranian ships "escorting" a carrier out of the Gulf. It could even be spun to they are forcing the carrier out.

-demonstrate that in certain situations they can get close enough to major US ships to potentially cause damage.

It is an interesting tactical scenario, one I will have to game out this weekend.

[sarisataka]

17. Ran the scenario 4 times

I had to make some assumptions about Iranian forces but assumed if it was an actual effort to inflict serious damage to the carrier the IRGC would be using it's best assets. On the US side I unrealistically set the Lincoln up on it's own no escorts and no planes in the air. I did have radars active so they would be able to tell immediately when a missile was launched and both sides would be computer controlled to avoid bias.

The best the Iranians did was using 10 Boghammar patrol boats, 8 Thondar missile boats and 2 Moudge class frigates on loan from the Iranian Navy. This force is able to throw over 40 anti-ship missiles and many rockets against the carrier.

The result was the Lincoln did a very respectable job standing alone against the swarm. Several Boghammars were able to get close enough to hit with RPGs but the damage cause was negligible and did not distract from the true threat of the ASMs. AA missiles and the Phalanx systems stopped all but three of the ASMs. The impacts of the Noor missiles did cause noticeable damage that would affect operations, at least temporarily. A couple radar systems were put off line, a phalanx was destroyed and, most importantly, one elevator and one catapult was seriously damaged, though not destroyed. Overall hull damage was rated at 10%.

Conclusion- a swarm such as the one seen in the photo launching a surprise attack on a US carrier could hit and cause serious damage. They do not actually pose a threat to sinking the carrier and it would be able to continue its mission at a 30-50% reduced effectiveness. As there would be escorting destroyers near by, it can be assumed Iranian losses would approach 100% as they will have expended their munitions against the primary target.