Richard Haass: any war with Iran will not look like the 1990 Gulf war or the 2003 Iraq wars

[Dennis Donovan]

Link to tweet

Richard N. Haass ✔ @RichardHaass

Make no mistake: any war with Iran will not look like the 1990 Gulf war or the 2003 Iraq wars. It will be fought throughout the region w a wide range of tools vs a wide range of civilian, economic, & military targets. The region (and possibly the world) will be the battlefield.

10:44 PM - Jan 2, 2020

Haass is the President of the Council on Foreign Relations.

[lark]

1. Drumpf is so damn stupid, he has no idea what he's started or how to handle it.

Guaranteed, not even a clue, n preparations, no plans, no international partners at all.

I feel bad for any generals working for him - but then again they're likely to be rw'ers too or they wouldn't be working for this destruct-omatic ass.

I feel horrible for our service people and innocents who will lose their lives for drumpf's vanity and criminal self dealing and no other reason. Was this what Bolton demanded to keep his mouth shut or lie for him - my best guess is 100% yes.

[Backseat Driver]

2. Defcon Level for the rest?

Still lolling around at Level 5?

[marble falls]

3. When the extreme RW CFR is concerned, its really bad.

[Dennis Donovan]

4. I wouldn't call them extreme, but they are RW

...at least the semi-sane part of the RW (Never Trumpers).

[marble falls]

5. Some of them are "ne'er Trumpers" ...

the biggest differences between the JBS and the CFR is that Birchers drink bourbon and CFRers drink Martinis; Bircher's slap you on the back and shake your hand, CFRers trade cards and have their people get a hold of your people.

[Dennis Donovan]

7. ...and Trump calls them "scum"

Ironically, I used to call some of the very same people the very same thing. I can't wait to get back to hating them again.

[lostnfound]

6. terror events throughout world, and perhaps millions killed in Iran.

A sad era opens.

[Duppers]

8. K & R

[Duppers]

9. This is why that even Israel turned Soleimani

Down as a target.

[moondust]

10. Previous administrations passed

on targeting him because of the potential consequences of assassinating an agent of the Iranian state, according to ME security people on TV last night. I believe they said that included both the Obama and GWB administrations.

Dump may not have the depth to understand the difference between taking out a non-state actor like OBL or Baghdadi and assassinating a high-level state actor. Dump and Republicans are much more into instant, short-term profit/gratification.

[Dennis Donovan]

11. Rep Slotkin was on the the DNI and NSC teams that dealt directly w/ Soleimani

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212835799

"What always kept both Democratic and Republican presidents from targeting Soleimani himself was the simple question:

Was the strike worth the likely retaliation, and the potential to pull us into protracted conflict?

The two administrations I worked for both determined that the ultimate ends didn’t justify the means. The Trump Administration has made a different calculation.

The Iranian government has vowed to retaliate and avenge Soleimani’s death, and could do so in any number of ways:

Against our diplomats and service members or high-ranking military officers, against our allies and partners in the region, or through targeted attacks in the Western world.

It is critical that the Administration has thought out the moves and counter-moves this attack will precipitate, and is prepared to protect our diplomats, service members, and citizens serving overseas."

[moondust]

12. Exactly.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

13. To be fair, nobody thought the 1991 Gulf War would look like it did

Most military experts explained that Iraq had a modern, well-armed military with seasoned veterans from the Iran-Iraq war.

...and many people did not think the invasion of Iraq by the US would be the slog it turned into.

You'll recall Shinseki wanted to send about 5x as many troops, but the W Bush administration maintained that we'd be greeted as liberators and that 50K troops would do it. They grossly miscalculated.