Was just thinking that Bush's approval rating was over 50% and he barely squeaked passed Kerry

[Quixote1818]

In the 2004 election 286 Electoral Votes to 261. Trump's approval rating is ten points below George Bush's and his approval seems locked into that number no matter what happens. If the economy goes south it will go under 40% but if not I suspect he will be in the low 40's for the election. The swing states he needs are actually the one part of the country that is economically in the worst shape too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_image_of_George_W._Bush#/media/File:George_W_Bush_approval_ratings.svg

[MaryMagdaline]

1. I keep reminding people of this. We almost pulled it out and Kerry was not personable

It gives me a little hope that we might be able to get rid of Trump

[Amishman]

2. As we saw in 2016, it matters where the votes are located

Millions of extra votes in CA didn't matter when 72k in the rust belt did.

[FBaggins]

3. That isn't very encouraging

He may be ten points below Bush's number... but he's ten points above his own approval number during the 2016 election.

[John Fante]

4. Trump wasn't president in 2016, he didn't have a presidential approval rating then.

GWB is the only GOP nominee in the last 30+ years to win the popular vote. Gump's 46% share was identical to McCain's and slightly below Romney's. Had Hillary topped 50% of the popular vote (not too much to ask), she would have won comfortably.

Trump didn't win the election, apathetic democratic voters lost it.

[Quixote1818]

6. Good summary. nt

[Caliman73]

5. We cannot use past elections as a predictor at this point.

There are certain things that are fairly stable over time (I.E. Incumbent's party generally loses seats in Congress; Good economy correlates with incumbent being elected barring major scandal; Party switch is unlikely during period of war). Approval ratings and electoral margins are not, in my opinion adequate to hang our hopes on.

Trump's positives and negatives have been stable. He is extremely popular with a small base and there is a certain amount of party loyalty he can count on.

The problem is the voter suppression tactics that are ongoing via depressing the vote with negative information and simple burnout from his constant lies and domestic and foreign messaging geared at making people not want to participate in the process. There is also a concerted suppression campaign at the state level, especially in the battleground states where voters are being purged. Republicans have worked hard to perfect the art of cheating.

They do not have the numbers. Republicans represent 25-35 percent of the population of the US in the Senate. It will be about turning out to vote in spite of the Republicans' efforts to keep turnout low. They win if turnout is low. There are a lot more people who support Democratic Policies than Republican but they are good at convincing people that there is no point in voting. We have to show people otherwise.

[11 Bravo]

7. Will Ohio still be close enough to steal?

[wiggs]

8. Won't be normal election. Does anyone doubt that he will use all the low roads, tricks, illegal

tactics, lies, threats of war, smears, arm-bending, extortion, etc that are at his disposal in the WH and via his oligarch colleagues?

If he makes it to November 2020, the amount of gaslighting and behind the scenes swampiness will be astonishing, daily. He hasn't even begun to plumb the depths yet.

[gibraltar72]

9. Did he??