Before Making Silly Speculations about the Impeachment Trial,

[MineralMan]

please take five minutes to review this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton

I'm seeing all sorts of speculations about "What If..." with regard to the upcoming impeachment trial of Donald Trump. Most make no sense at all, in constitutional terms. We have a fairly recent presidential impeachment trial to look to for more information about how this all works.

Please, let's go and review something from recent history before trying to find ways around what the Constitution says.

Thanks.

[democratisphere]

1. Moscow Mitch has nothing to do with fairness.

Time to strike anything about forwarding the articles of impeachment to the Senate and continue gathering evidence and holding hearings on that evidence throughout all of 2020 and beyond if necessary.

[MineralMan]

2. I'm not sure that is the best approach.

I feel certain that the Senate will not convict Trump. I believe, however, that an impeachment trial will have a salutary effect on voters, in the end.

This needs to play out fully. Mitch McConnell has announced in public that the trial will not be a fair one. People are listening.

Let the trial proceed. Let everyone see it happen in real time.

[democratisphere]

7. Rethuglicons ONLY care about themselves and Moscow Mitch's

white wash of the impeachment trial will be applauded by their corrupt base. Time to take drastic measures before it is too late. Americans have extremely short memories and attention spans.

[MineralMan]

8. "Time to take drastic measures..."

Like what, for example? That is exactly what I'm talking about. Drastic measures? What is going to happen is that some sort of trial in the Senate will take place.

We don't know what role Chief Justice Roberts will play in all this. He will preside. How he does that is really going to be up to him. I have no idea, yet, how he will approach that job.

[democratisphere]

13. Rethuglicons can never be trusted. I believe you are giving THEM way to much credit

to do the right thing. It will not happen. Don't send the House Impeachment Articles to the Senate NOW!

[MineralMan]

17. Of course they can't be trusted.

Of course they will do the wrong thing. But, the Articles of Impeachment will go to the Senate. There will be a Senate trial. You and I have nothing to say about that. The process is already underway.

I am giving Republicans no credit for being honorable at all. I believe we can beat them next November, but only if we put all of our energy into that goal. What will happen in Congress will happen, whether we like it or not. What will happen over the next 10 months, however, is something we can affect.

[democratisphere]

19. If this process goes straight forward with the current schedule

nothing will have been accomplished and drumpf will become even worse than he has been, it that is even possible. This will not end well for US.

[MineralMan]

20. The question really is: How will the voters see it?

This is all leading up to next year's election. We've all known that for a long time. The Senate was never going to convict Trump. Anyone who believed that was self-deceiving.

It's all about voter perceptions and decision-making. We can either moan and gnash our teeth or make use of this to help us get out the vote. That's what I'm planning to do. How about you?

[democratisphere]

21. This is no longer about politics. It is about crime, criminals, corruption

and malfeasance. Giving IT a pass as anything else enables it to continue and go on.

[MineralMan]

23. I disagree. It remains about politics. The recent statements by

McConnell and Graham make that clear. They're not deciding based on anything but politics. The same is true for almost everyone who will be voting on the impeachment in the Senate. Anyone can predict the vote within a very close margin right now.

We can discuss crime, criminals, corruption and malfeasance all we want. In the end, though, it will be politics that decides. Thus has it always been, and thus it will always be.

[onenote]

10. Voting to impeach and then voting not to send the articles to the Senate

would blow up in the Democrat faces, which is why Pelosi will never allow that to happen.

And yes, there would have to be a recorded vote NOT to send the articles. That's because even a single Republican can offer a resolution to send the articles to the Senate and that resolution is "privileged" and must be voted on.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. I have a hunch this one isn't going to go like the Clinton trial.

I don't know what will happen but chances are that it won't be normal (if there's anything "normal" about an impeachment trial since they don't happen very often). The Senate has rules for impeachment trials but they can change their own rules with a majority vote. So I'm not going to even try to predict what will happen. The election of Trump was a Black Swan event, and it's been followed by an entire flock of Black Swans.

[MineralMan]

4. No doubt you're right. At this point, I want the voters to see exactly

what is happening. Mitch McConnell has set the stage. Let's follow what happens closely and comment on it often.

Mitch McConnell should resign from the Senate. He is acting in opposition to the Constitution. Let's make that known.

Let the trial happen. But let's make what is happening clear. We don't need every voter. We just need enough to turn things around. We can do that!

[dawg day]

5. I saw some GOPer on CNN decrying impeachment now-

About how while Trump did wrong, nothing he did was bad enough to warrant the "coup" of impeachment.

The CNN reporter mentioned in passing that this very same guy- can't remember his name-- was one of the "House Republicans" who prosecuted the case for Clinton's impeachment in the Senate.

Maybe he thought the irony didn't need exploration, but I really wanted to hear the GoPer explain why impeachment for lying about a few blow jobs was justified, but not Nixonianly extorting dirt on a rival by withholding military aid wasn't.

[MineralMan]

6. Comparisons between this trial and that of Bill Clinton are natural,

and will be made by the media as well as things proceed. That's a good thing. I hope much time is spent doing that on the TV.

[dawg day]

9. When it comes to the crimes, though, I'm really struck by the comps to Nixon's--

Nixon committed a crime to get or rather manufacture dirt on an opponent. (Also trying to steal DNC documents!)
He also used media manipulation and disinformation to knee-cap the opponent most likely to beat him (Ed Muskie... and it worked).

There was also the fractal nature of the crime-- strange connections to other events (the Bay of Pigs, JKF's assassination).

But... I would wager nothing in the history of the country compares to this level of complex and total criminal activity in power.

[MineralMan]

11. Nixon resigned before he was impeached.

I'm thinking of Bill Clinton's impeachment and trial, actually. That is the only one in recent history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton

[uponit7771]

12. MM, those "recent impeachment trials" involved republican's more interested in democracy. The

... current batch of republicans have shown empirically not to be interested in western style democracies at all.

[MineralMan]

15. That is not my point at all. I am speaking about

how impeachment and a Senate trial work, not about political tendencies. Many people in this forum are suggesting actions that cannot take place or that are unconstitutional. Many people are frustrated with the current situation, and rightly so, but in their frustration are proposing things that cannot occur.

The process exists. It will take place. The public will have an opportunity to see their Senators and others in action. We can comment on what happens, as can the media. What occurs will become part of the decision-making of voters next year.

We cannot stop the process. We cannot control it. We cannot alter it. We don't have that power. What we can do is follow it closely and speak and write about it. That will work better than any ridiculous proposals that can never happen.

For example, some people have mentioned that 67 votes are not necessary, as long enough Republicans in the Senate do not participate in the trial. That's ridiculous, and will not occur. Every member of the Senate will participate who is not gravely ill. It's silly to talk about things that cannot and will not happen. It is a waste of time.

[Firestorm49]

14. Recent history be damned.

This grand plan by the Republican Party has been evolving for years, and has finally come to fruition with the election of Donald Trump. They’ve played their cards so well that they are now in a position to flaunt it in our face. Democrats, on the other hand, have been caught with their pants down and are trying to save America as best they can- and I pray we do.

Years of court stacking have paid off. Years of judicial nominees, many having highly questionable credentials have paid off. Having our adversaries come to their aid is just an added bonus. The fact that Moscow Mitch no longer gives a damn about flagrantly shoving it up our ass is further proof of their resolve.

You can trust in precedent as long as you want. The fact is, they no longer give a hoot about 1) the common man. 2) integrity 3) their oath to the constitution. They believe that at this point they’ve won, and are wearing it like a badge of honor.

Get ready for big changes in America.

[MineralMan]

16. That's easy to say. But, what, exactly will you do about that?

The answer is, quite simply: You will do nothing. There is nothing you can do. The trial will take place as it happens.

You want big changes in America? Get to work in getting out the vote next November. That's something you can do. Will you?

[StarfishSaver]

22. I really appreciate your clear-eyed, real world analysis

[MineralMan]

24. Thanks. It's just one guy's opinion, though.

I try to think things through, based on whatever realities are in place. But, I am sometimes wrong.

[Dave in VA]

18. Thank you

MM, thank you for this post. You are exactly correct in your description of events. Barring an unforeseen event, we know that the republicans in the senate have no intention of finding Trump guilty of the impeachment charges. People are paying attention.

Thanks!