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Roll Call: No change for California seat Katie Hill is giving up
"Little indication the GOP can win a district that backed Hillary Clinton by 7 points"
https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/ratings-update-no-change-california-seat-katie-hill-giving
From an article posted on Oct 28, 2019:
Less than a year after getting elected to Congress, Rep. Katie Hill announced her resignation from California’s 25th District amid allegations of inappropriate relationships with staffers. On one hand, it’s easy to see why Republicans might be excited about the special election, considering they held the seat for a quarter of a century not that long ago. But there’s little indication that it’s currently a serious GOP opportunity.
...
Now Republicans are presented with a seat that includes the suburbs north of Los Angeles, where Hillary Clinton defeated Trump by 7 points, taking just over 50 percent of the vote. Republicans don’t currently hold any district in the county where Clinton topped 50 percent or a district that she won by as large of a margin.
There’s scant evidence that the political environment in California or nationally has improved for Republicans since Hill won her seat in 2018 by unseating Rep. Steve Knight by 9 points. And history is working against the GOP. Republicans haven’t taken over a Democratic House seat anywhere in California since 1998. (Republicans won two open seats that cycle.)
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom will have 14 calendar days after Hill’s resignation to issue a proclamation for the special election to be held within 140 days. While open seats and vacant seats are generally regarded as better takeover opportunities because incumbents are reelected at a high rate, Hill’s departure may make it easier for Democrats because they can rally behind a candidate without the salacious headlines. On the Democratic side, state Assemblywoman Christy Smith announced her campaign Monday. She represents more than half of the congressional district in the Legislature.
...
Now Republicans are presented with a seat that includes the suburbs north of Los Angeles, where Hillary Clinton defeated Trump by 7 points, taking just over 50 percent of the vote. Republicans don’t currently hold any district in the county where Clinton topped 50 percent or a district that she won by as large of a margin.
There’s scant evidence that the political environment in California or nationally has improved for Republicans since Hill won her seat in 2018 by unseating Rep. Steve Knight by 9 points. And history is working against the GOP. Republicans haven’t taken over a Democratic House seat anywhere in California since 1998. (Republicans won two open seats that cycle.)
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom will have 14 calendar days after Hill’s resignation to issue a proclamation for the special election to be held within 140 days. While open seats and vacant seats are generally regarded as better takeover opportunities because incumbents are reelected at a high rate, Hill’s departure may make it easier for Democrats because they can rally behind a candidate without the salacious headlines. On the Democratic side, state Assemblywoman Christy Smith announced her campaign Monday. She represents more than half of the congressional district in the Legislature.
MORE...
https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/ratings-update-no-change-california-seat-katie-hill-giving
