Re CA 25 And Katie Hill

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I live in Brad Sherman's district. It abuts Katie Hill's district. It is extremely unlikely it falls back into Republican hands. The Trump brand is toxic in SoCal. Hillary won CA 25 by six and Katie won it by nine.


I feel bad for Katie but the seat is more important. I want the Republican party in SoCal so small you can fit it in your bathtub. I also expect a backlash because it looks like Katie was set up and even if the allegations are true the invasion of her privacy was sickening. Nobody deserves to have their most intimate moments plastered over the internet. Again I expect a backlash. It's so unCalifornian.

[pbmus]

1. And the bathtub is a thimble...

[TheBlackAdder]

11. Grover Norquist ". . .get it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub."

.

It seems like the hard part's done. 🛀

.

[diva77]

2. LA County just converted to the nonverifiable ballot marking devices. It's going to be

a major battle to keep that district.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. We vote mostly by mail.

[stopdiggin]

14. then make them stop.

does your local party know that your adamantly opposed to this method of balloting?

[Celerity]

4. it certainly would help us keep it if a centrist PAC w/ Dem members wasn't backing the Rethug

they were backing the Rethug months before there was any scandal with Hill

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212629373

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. We're not going to let outsiders choose our reps.

[Celerity]

8. good, and I hope many of you tell the For Country Caucus to go fuck themselves

[Blue_true]

9. That is not a bad thing. We need to field a strong democrat that has kept himself or

herself free of any scandal at all. It would help if the person is ex-military, but also a true progressive (unlike Gabbard).

[Celerity]

10. you must have misread, they (the centrists PAC with Dems) are supporting a REPUBLICAN

they were supporting the Rethug LONG before any scandal on Hill came out

so it IS a bad thing

[Blue_true]

21. It is not a bad thing that some centrist group is supporting a repugh.

She beat a incumbent repugh by close to 9%. If we nominate the right person, I don't care that neoconservative of any party backs the repugh, he or she likely will lose. I seriously doubt that "centrist" group supported Hill in her run, we don't need them as long as we have a clear-headed nominee that has not tainted himself of herself with a self-inflicted ethical issue.

[Celerity]

22. That district has been red for ages, and it is madness to say that a bi-partisan group with

multiple Democrats (including from California) supporting a Rethug is a good thing. That PAC did not endorse Hill nor Knight in 2018.

CA-25 was straight Rethug for 25 years until Hill won. She had to fight off further left opponents in the primaries, opponents who probably would not have beaten Knight in the general. In fact, if our (I am registered in CA, very near Hill's district, my rep is Ted Lieu) jungle primaries worked like others, Hill would have lost, because Knight got over 50% in the primary in June.

[Blue_true]

23. Head to head, she beat him by almost 9%. nt

[Celerity]

24. The Rethug is being backed/endorsed by a partially Democratic caucus

and its affiliated PAC. If you cannot see the major problem (made worse now by our sitting Representative having to resign in scandal) there, well, we are done here, as we clearly are at loggerheads.

Also, it is about to get even worse, as now Knight, who said he was not going to try and reclaim his seat, is probably jumping back in.


GOP incumbent whom Katie Hill defeated is considering run for her seat

https://nypost.com/2019/10/28/gop-incumbent-who-katie-hill-defeated-is-considering-run-for-her-seat/

The former California GOP congressman who lost his seat to Katie Hill in a 2018 election says he is “absolutely considering” running for the office again now that she’s resigning amid a sex scandal.

Ex-US Rep. Steve Knight told the Signal of Santa Clarita Valley after Hill announced her resignation Sunday that he would make a formal announcement “very quickly” about his plans for California’s 25th Congressional District.

Hill had defeated the two-term Republican by 9 percentage points last year, flipping the district blue for the first time since 1990.

“It’s a very interesting situation, and we need representation here,” Knight said. “It looks like there’s going to be that special election, and we need to have a representative there so we can have our voice in Congress.”

When asked whether he was weighing a run, Knight replied, “Yes, I’m absolutely considering that. Let’s say I’m more than considering that.”

snip

[Blue_true]

25. We just have to agree to disagree. nt

[UTUSN]

6. What is so flagrant is that the predator in the WH is in the WH!1

[Blue_true]

7. Former Congresswoman Hill's situation is more evidence that people

really need to think about what they put on camera, even if the situation is consensual. Nothing should go on camera that a person will be ashamed to own.

I hope that she bounces back from this, maybe get a job with a democratic progressive organization and move forward with her life.

[Hortensis]

16. She will. Enormous talent, and now with lots of contacts.

But with inadequate self discipline and ethics, we're better off with her applying it outside electoral politics. I was a strong admirer and hate that she turned out to be this way, but best it happened now. She was being groomed for leadership and speaking for the party in public, for god's sake.

Shucking that malicious prize of a husband will be a big step forward. She's been getting him jobs, and he's now asking for spousal support. That tap just turned off.

[Blue_true]

20. I agree. nt

[Jake Stern]

27. It was told to me as

"Don't put anything on the 'net that you'd be too embarrassed to show to your grandma"

[Blue_true]

28. My parents didn't know much about the Net.

But they warned me against doing anything that I would later be ashamed of.

[FBaggins]

12. I thought she won by 3-4

Regardless... it won’t switch back to red because she resigned. It would have been far less likely to hold if she had decided (like many male congressmen) to try to stay... because her district is much closer to the center point.

On edit - looks like it was 2.6%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. She beat him by 8.8 points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Hill_(politician)

[FBaggins]

18. That's an impressive swing since the day after the election

It was originally reported as quite close.

Doesn't much matter though... that's clearly not large enough to weather something like this (plus the ethics investigation that would follow). If Kevin McCarthy (next door in the 23rd) did the same thing... he could probably weather the storm because the PVI there is R+14. He could turn off 1/5th of his base and energize the opposition... and still win. The PVI in the 25th is dead even.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. With what we know now I would give her a 50/50 chance of holding the seat.

I would give an unblemished Democrat a 75% chance of holding the seat.

The PVI in CA 25 was even in a +9 Democratic year. It's highly unlikely we lose the House popular vote in 2020. If we do we have a lot more to worry about than CA 25, a lot more...

[pnwmom]

15. I agree. The seat is more important. But also, it's not just about the pictures.

It's about her involvement with the campaign staffer (who she continued to pay as a "consultant) and possibly also with the House staffer, Legislative Affairs director Graham Kelley. When the story about her husband's claim about Graham came out, she quickly resigned.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I just think it's sad.

[pnwmom]

26. It is very sad. I'm hoping that for the sake of her district

someone else strong runs to take her seat.

I've heard that the Ca Secretary of State is thinking about running.