Every election year there's a cadre of DUers who say "pay no attention to the polls"

[cali]

or who say that only x or y poll can be trusted or who insist that polls are phony and are only used to manipulate the public, etc etc etc.

There's a lot of "this poll is bullshit" when people see something they don't like".

I don't get it and I ain't buying.

Quite a few Polls are roughly accurate most of the time over recent history. Yes, there are some major outliers, and the further out one is from an election, the less reliable a poll is, but they aren't entirely useless for gauging the where the electorate stands.

I think some pollsters, Rasmussen for example, surely do try and manipulate public opinion, but one can learn which outfits to discard.

I pay attention to the polls- not hyper-attention to be sure, but they're one more indicator of where an election is headed.

[sufrommich]

1. The silly reasons for ignoring the polls are

identical here and at Free Republic, along with the classic "the only poll that matters is the one on election day". Of course polls are a good barometer of peoples opinions, if they weren't neither party would spend millions on reacting to those polls.

[cali]

2. I had a rare attack of diplomacy today so I refrained

from mentioning the parallel freeperville take.

[sufrommich]

4. Lol, good for you. I will concede that

not all polls are created equal. Rasmussen tends to skew their polls toward the GOP until a week before the election, then corrects itself.I'll give the conspiracy theorists that one.

[KharmaTrain]

3. Not All Polls Are The Same...

I pay attention to specific state polls rather than the national beauty pagent numbers. The deal is while the Presidential election is national, in essence its 50 seperate elections that can and will have many other factors in play. You also have to look closely at how the questions are worded...if they're being asked to find out an answer vs. trying to prove a point. Thus I am not one that lives or dies on what this poll says or that one. As one whose worked with reasearch I've always looked at polls as a snap shot of where you were as opposed to where you're going...it can provide useful information for what is working and what isn't, but it shouldn't be the sould determination on how you market your product or candidate.

I'm more interested in the downticket races and polls right now and an indicator of what could happen on election day. An energized Senate or governor's race or proposition can affect the Presidential. I also prefer local newspaper polls to the "usual suspects" as they tend to give a better indication of what a specific region, state or city may do.

Cheers...

[titaniumsalute]

6. This is exactly what you have to look at

Our Presidential election isn't about who wins the general vote. It is about who wins the electoral college therefore state polling is really the only thing that matters.

In addition, the smaller the geography usually the higher the accuracy. A sample size of 500 in a state poll will be More reliable than a sample size of 1,000 for the entire US voting population.

Is polling accurate? Well yes and no. Just as you take samples of water from a lake to determine if it is contaminated or not may or may not be 100% reliable. There are dozens of variables as Kharma kind of points out in the above post. A lot can happen between now and election day, weather on election day, the suppression of voting rights, etc.

I think if people take polls as Gospel they get into trouble...however...they do show the general idea of what will happen. Most importantly you can see trends over a period of time. If one candidate is slowly pulling away in various polls that is a good trend for that candidate.

[ailsagirl]

5. It's just that I don't trust them

Obama and Rmoney, according to the polls, have been in a 'dead heat' for many months, but that simply doesn't square with crowd size/reaction. With Rmoney, the crowds appear lackluster and uptight, whereas with Obama...well, the crowds just adore him, and the excitement and support they so clearly exhibit cannot be anything but genuine. I've seen it time and again. Then I look at the polls and the two are STILL in a 'dead heat.' How can this be? Either I ignore what I see with my own two eyes or I ignore the polls. And I do the latter (not completely, mind you) and life has been a helluva lot easier ever since.

[titaniumsalute]

8. Unfortunately what you see with your two eyes may not be correct

I'm not trying to argue what you believe and what you are seeing. I can't see electrons, black holes, strings etc. But I trust science and higher mathematics to help me believe in these things.

I used to work in radio and conducted audience research for the ratings company. It was very scientific polling research to see who was listening to each radio station. The company data helped control billions in radio advertising so you might imagine that many people were emotional about our ratings results. With that said, the polling was very solid. Was it 100% accurate? of course not. But the goal is to get a good idea of what is going on.

Seeing with your own eyes isn't necessarily the snapshot of what is going on. Kind of like a radio station manager would see huge crowds at a concert they promoted or talk about the packing phones lines for their talk station. Sometimes the ratings would show poorly. They easily could have a smaller, passionate audience who goes to their concerts, calls their station, but remains a smaller audience.

I think the answer to your question about being in a dead heat is that no matter who runs on the left and right we are a very split nation politically. I think there's only handful of people in the middle who don't believe who they are voting. Conventions, debates, etc. are all just political theater and tradition.

While I do believe in polling I don't let it bother my life.

[ailsagirl]

10. Thanks for the background information

I'm also swayed by the assertion that I've heard from Day One that Rmoney just isn't very liked--even from members of own party. Which I find pretty amusing.

[titaniumsalute]

13. I really don't think the right likes him at all

I rarely hear Republicans say "I have to vote for that great guy Mitt..." It is always "we need to vote Obama out."

Mitt is boring, vanilla, un-funny, and peaople can't relate to him. But, he was the last man standing at the end of the LONGGGG GOP primary.

[sufrommich]

9. Large crowds just adored Sarah Palin too. They

aren't a good barometer for much.

[ailsagirl]

12. This (cringe) is true

[ProSense]

7. Good ones:

Romney's speech "gets lowest ratings of any Gallup has measured since 1996"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021258178

NC: "51% of voters think Romney should release 12 years of his tax returns"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021258170

"49% of Florida voters think Romney should release 12 years of his tax returns"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021257177

[ailsagirl]

11. Those *are* good ones

[On the Road]

14. I Agree -- Looks Like the Popular Vote Will be Close

To think otherwise is simple cognitive dissonance.

it's a good thing that the electoral distribution works in Obama's favor.