Are Hopes too High for Convicting Trump?

[Tennessee Hillbilly]

Don't get me wrong. Nobody hates trump more than I do.

But in my view, all this talk about getting the senate repugs to vote to convict trump is totally unrealistic.

IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW STRONG THE EVIDENCE IS.

IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW VILE TRUMP'S ACTIONS ARE.

There's almost no chance at all that the slimeball repug senators will vote to convict trump.

I wish this wasn't true. I want him gone as much as anyone. But it's the reality that we need to prepare ourselves for.

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. if that is the case, our "Democracy" is broken. Failed.

[Thomas Hurt]

3. if that happens it is the moral and political failure of the GOP not our democracy.

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. agreed, but the effect/impact is the same.

you are talking root cause, I am talking outcome/resultagreed

[Thomas Hurt]

2. My only expectation has been impeached, he will have to removed by election unless something changes

in the GOP Congressional caucus.

[NewJeffCT]

5. I think there is little hope of convicting him soon

but, if the sputtering economy takes a turn for the worse and more damning information comes out, I think at least some Republicans will start thinking of self-preservation.

[honest.abe]

6. I would love to see him in jail but I would also be thrilled with him just resigning in disgrace.

I suspect justice will catch up with him later at some point anyway.

[Big Blue Marble]

7. He will be convicted only

if the popular support for impeachment becomes overwhelming and trump’s popular support
shrinks to the point where Republicans panic. If more and more evidence surfaces, that can happen. So don’t give up hope. Hope more true patriots come forth with more evidence.

[Johnny2X2X]

19. This is the correct answer

They will not convict IMO, but this will damage Trump for the election and hurt reps.

Dems have to know now though, the entire executive branch of the government and the justice department are an arm of the Trump re-election campaign. Every resource will be used to get Trump re-elected. Nothing is off limits, the military, the CIA/NSA, the FBI, and every other department under Trump is going to be used to attack his opponent.

[Demsrule86]

27. The Trump voters are very loyal...we can see the GOP is not turning on him or the elected

Senators would be supporting a real trial. He plans to win in the electoral college ...not the popular vote.

[Thekaspervote]

35. This... if his poll numbers or the economy tanks.. that will take him down. Otherwise we MUST

Beat him at the ballot box

[I_have_had_enough]

52. This

13 months until we get to have our say about orange man.
I have been giving to Warren monthly, I know she is a force that can overcome the spell Trump has cast.
Who ever is the nominee I will enthusiastically support.
I trust the voters more than a republican senate.

[Anon-C]

8. Let Mitch McConnell and the Senate GOP piss on the Founders...

...that's on them. If the Senate is still the body of a functioning nation, they will make a deal to walk this....out of office.

[Demsrule86]

26. If Trump wins and we lose the House...what makes you think we will be a functioning nation?

[Anon-C]

50. I do not think that losing the House is a foregone conclusion if Trump's Impeached and not convicted

...in the Senate. I accept I may be wrong on that point.

[Demsrule86]

55. I didn't say it was but making 40 moderates from Trump voting districts vote for it...is

risky.

[Celerity]

62. I agree, but that die has been cast

They are going to have to bite the bullet and vote to impeach.

IF Pelosi doesn't even hold a vote on impeachment (a final vote, not this made-up Rump shit play about an Enquiry vote) we will probably increase our chances of losing the House by a factor of 2 or 3, and Trump's re-election chances skyrocket.

IF we hold the vote in the House and it fails, then the House will be surely gone, and Rump's chances for re-election double from the first scenario's.

There is no way to walk it all back into the bottle. I trust Pelosi to get it done. I really have no choice at this point.

[uponit7771]

9. We just need the 6 republican senators at risk on record support Trumps treason, take over the ....

... senate and pass some laws so we have a 13 seat USSC

[beachbumbob]

10. he will never face an impeachment trial in the Senate but that is not a bad thing for

Democrats or our country as Nov 2020 will see record democratic voter turnout so we render OUR decision on trump, McConnel and the GOP. A trail WILL NEVER BE HELD and ZERO way to force it in the Senate.

Let GOP defend corruption is the best way to annihilate them in Nov 2020

[unblock]

12. i expect they would hold a trial.

being on senate turf, they can control it easily.

they can limit the house managers to a one hour reading of the charges, none of which will be new news, and then have three solid days of republican grandstanding about how wonderful dear leader is and how corrupt job biden is and hey, hillary's emails for good measure.

then they vote not to convict and declare it was all a partisan witch hunt.


i think they'd rather no impeachment, but if the house impeaches, their best bet politically would be to stage a clown trial that "clears" him.

[beachbumbob]

13. the problem with an actual trial trump MUST BE DISPOSED, no way to avoid that

no way would any GOP want adam schiff interrogating trump, ever. Also noway will McConnel take a risk with his caucus having to take a vote. The damage could be huge even without conviction as the trump voter/collaborators will seek vengeance on those GOP senators if they voted "guilty", opening the door for democrats to win those seats

McConnel has one play, the Merick Garland play and say the trial will simply be placed at the hands of the american people Nov 2020. That is the least risk to GOP.

[unblock]

14. who says donnie must be "disposed"?

i assume you mean deposed. in any event, no, there's zero requirement that donnie even appear at the trial, and there's certainly no requirement that he speak.

i'll allow that mcturtle would avoid a trial if he thought any republicans would vote to convict, but obviously, they'd meet behind closed doors to make sure that everyone agreed to vote not to convict no matter what. assuming they reach that agreement, then of course they'd have a trial.


i really don't think they're better off allowing donnie to be impeached and then refusing to "clear" him.

[beachbumbob]

17. you think a trump on trial would remain silent?

not likely

[unblock]

36. of course he'll rant from the white house lawn.

but he won't go to the senate floor and be sworn in and be interrogated by democrats.

[Demsrule86]

24. They don't hold a trial but have one vote period ASAP and then declare Trump is not guilty.

[Demsrule86]

25. We don't have enough Democrats in the states we need in order to beat Trump in the

electoral college....this is not a base election.

[scheming daemons]

11. Whether he is convicted or not is not the point...

The Democrats have to do what is right.

Let the GOPers in the senate defend their vote to acquit on the campaign trail.

[Demsrule86]

21. And if he wins the election in 20 and we lose the house? I do no consider

this dismal scenario doing what is right. You don't prosecute someone knowing you will lose just because it is the right thing to do. I can't even imagine the horror of another four years of Trump with a new House majority...that is not protecting the constitution...but the opposite. I believe our best chance of getting rid of Trump is to win 2020 and hold the house and maybe get the Senate although that is going to be tough.

[RobinA]

40. Got That Right

I believe this will increase his chances of winning in 2020 unless the Dems play very, very well from here on out. OR unless he really did shoot someone on 5th Ave., although even that...

If he's in office just being his usual asinine self with no help from us I believe that there probably is a silent percentage of his base that at least will not vote. This way, since he won't be convicted, he gets to play the victim card and point to the deranged Dems for impeaching him with no evidence and the fake news media for printing lies about him.

I don't see him being hurt by this at all. His base knows he's a corrupt blowhard and they don't care. In fact, thta's part of why hey like him. "He may be a corrupt blowhard, but he's OUR corrupt blowhard."

[Demsrule86]

58. That is how I see it.

[scheming daemons]

44. Impeachment makes both of those things *LESS* likely, not more likely.

[Demsrule86]

59. You haven't explained how this makes it more likely we keep the house and he loses.

[Demsrule86]

23. It is not 'right' to give Trump another term and endanger the house by impeaching with no shot

at conviction...he doubled down yesterday. He is dangerous...the moral imperative we have it to get him out and 20 is likely our only shot at that...I don't give a rats ass about our 'duty'...we could lose the house and the presidency...time to accept that we have to consider politics in these matters and not purity or we will continue to allow the GOP to run roughshod over us and get the policy they want while we get nothing.

[edhopper]

15. We know that

there is little hope for conviction.

But he still must be impeached.

[Demsrule86]

22. I don't see the point of that...the reason he wants a vote is to make the moderates from

Trump states vote for impeachment so the GOP can regain the House...now if he wins and he gets the house...than what? We endangered an opportunity to remove him and keep the house by winning elections less than a year away. I don't consider that worth a shit.

[edhopper]

49. I don't see him winning

or getting any more independents than he did in 2018. I see more Red districts going blue, whether he is convicted in the Senate or not.

[Demsrule86]

56. He only needs three states...WI,MI and PA. He could win.

[edhopper]

61. And we can look what happened in those States in 2018

before he was impeached. Also WI and MI now hve Dem Governors, so there won't be the voter tampering and suppression as there was in 2016.

[Codeine]

16. I have zero hope that he will be convicted.

Believing that many Republicans would turn on him is asinine; magical thinking taken to a delusional extreme.

[Demsrule86]

18. No Republican called for conviction even after he broke the law on TV yesterday.

They will not remove him. I have said before and been attacked for it that there was no chance for conviction...I still believe that to be true which is why I am lukewarm about impeachment... I would hate like hell to lose the presidency and the House. We risk our majority by forcing a vote on impeachment. Trump won last time with numbers not much different than what he has now. Moderates and or Republicans in red state/ purple states gave us the House as I said before. And they can take it back. I have never hated anyone as much as I hate Trump...but I don't find it worth it to give it four more years so we can have the satisfaction of impeaching him without removal...imagine what the GOP will do if he wins and they get the House back.

[sarisataka]

20. Anyone who believes there is a 5% chance of conviction

Is very optimistic. To believe there is a higher chance is indulging in fantasy.

Likewise for believing he will resign but I would lower the fantasy threshold to 1%.

[Clash City Rocker]

28. Someone probably hates Trump more than you

Maybe someone in his own family.

The more you know this guy, the more you hate him.

[Vogon_Glory]

29. I don't think the Repugs will vote to convict. OTOH

They will show themselves a contemptibly partisan group who were willing to put partisan advantage over constitutional law and America’s interests. The only people who’ll be impressed are the hard-core haters, end-time religious nuts, and racists. The rest will be revulsed. If the country’s in recession, it’ll play even less well to the rest of the electorate.

[dawg day]

30. It'll be like with Nixon--

The Republicans will finally decide that Trump is too much trouble, and say they'll withdraw support publically unless he resigns.

And Nixon was much more popular in the general population than Trump is. And actually, he did some good things even that last year.

Trump is wildly unpopular outside of the GOP-- the most unpopular president ever. And he's utterly incompetent. At this point, he's not even doing things only the GOP likes. He's just talking constantly about himself, and doing only things that gratify his widdle ego. They're not going to get anything more out of him. I think they'll dump him within a few months, though that's very risky, because he can take his 20% of rabid fans with him, and that will cripple the GOP, especially if he now makes THEM his enemy.

Pass the popcorn, please?

Bad for the country, I know, but it would be good to see the GOP in agony. They deserve it.

[Big Blue Marble]

34. You and I hold this minority view.

If more damning evidences surfaces and/or he goes totally off the rails, and his support plummets, your scenario is far more likely.

[dawg day]

46. Romney just came out with a quite sharp criticism-

He's safe-- he owes Trump exactly 0-- and has a safe seat in a state that doesn't like Trump much.


Romney Breaks With Trump Amid Impeachment Probe: ‘Appalling’ He Asked China to Investigate Biden


Others might follow.

https://www.mediaite.com/trump/romney-breaks-with-trump-amid-impeachment-probe-appalling-he-asked-china-to-investigate-biden/

[Garrett78]

57. Nixon's approval rating plummeted. I don't think Trump's will.

He's an egregiously awful person, yet no predecessor has had such a steady approval rating. Not even close.

We're dealing with a cult. Republicans in Congress know that breaking with Trump will splinter the party. Only those retiring or in very safe seats dare challenge Trump.

We need audio of Trump telling Putin that he'll do Putin's bidding if Lord Vladimir promises to not release the videos of Trump raping children. Even then, I'm not convinced Republicans would force Trump out.

[Arthur_Frain]

31. Not while McConnell holds the senate.

Spare a little hate for that bitch right there, trump is obscene, but in all reality I wonder if McConnell hasn’t done more damage in a very big way. His strategy to hold up judicial nominations from day one of Obama has done a shit ton of damage for a very long time.

[VOX]

32. It's more about throwing daylight on the lawlessness, and keeping 45 on the defensive...

As much as a swift and harsh conviction would be genuinely deserved, it’s a given (for now, anyway) that Trump will be spared by a complicit Mitch McConnell and a far-right Republican Party. So the salient issue is more about training a spotlight on Trump’s serious transgressions, since no one (especially Trump) is above the rule of law.

As a tactic for more favorable results in the 2020 election, keeping Trump and his lieutenants off balance is sadly necessary. In doing so, they become increasingly desperate, running around trying to stamp out multiple fires, spreading even more crazed disinformation, bickering with each other, etc. The American public will be further subjected to the chaos in their “government,” and hopefully enough on-the-fence swing-state voters will be thoroughly disgusted— to the point where they won’t feel any need to make the same nihilistic, uninformed statement they did in 2016.

[Thekaspervote]

37. At this point absolutely!! We cannot allow them to daily break the law and stand idly by

Conviction or no.

We must do what’s right. This is a long long game. we win some battles, we loose some, we have to win the war against their endless corruption or we are truly at the end of our democracy

[VOX]

41. Precisely. Are we a nation of laws, or not? Is America a functioning democracy, or not?

It gets pretty basic, which is why the blind allegiance to Trump’s by his base is genuinely baffling to to anyone with the ability to discern what’s lawful and ethical, and what is not.

Sadly ironic that those who consider themselves “liberty-loving patriots” have thrown in with a group of criminals who are linked to some of the world’s most oppressive and corrupt despots (further criminality).

[The empressof all]

33. People with Red State Senators need to take more visible action

It's not a time to be complacent or hopeless... If you are able take a sign and stand in front of their local office. Go to every town hall. (LOL if they have one) Mobilize with local activists and stand together. Be a visible yet peaceful force of dissent. Be Brave!

[Thekaspervote]

38. This!! Everyone that draws breath and can, must be involved

[The empressof all]

42. I believe local action is the key

Many people only get their news from local stations. We need to increase that coverage and be calm and clear and resolute in our need for these Republicans to get on the record. It can not wait. Look at what happened in the Joni Ernst town hall. It was just one woman asking the right questions to pin her down. They can't defend the indefensible without looking like idiots. They know that and that's why they are hiding. We need to flush them out....

[Whiskeytide]

39. Republican politicians are caught between their base and ...

... the party as a whole. I think it’s very simple. trump’s genuine base is about 30 to 33% of the general electorate. Those are the assholes that will support anything he vomits up. It may wax and wane a few percentage points here and there, but it’s pretty solid for him.

That translates roughly to somewhere between 50% to 60% of the Republican Party electorate. That’s his power over the party. He controls enough to primary out anyone he disfavors. If you go against trump, you lose a lot of votes, and you’re vulnerable to a trumpie in your primary. Moreover, even if you survive the primary, those votes are not likely to come back and vote for you in the general (since trump shat on you in the primary), and you’re vulnerable there as well.

It’s just math. They HAVE to support him to survive politically.

And the polarization they have fomented for 30+ years is making it worse, I think. As Democrats, we will now turn out and vote for a polished turd over anything that even smells republican. (And I’m not saying that’s a bad thing, necessarily. We probably should). But that makes their base that much more critical to them. The Democratic challenger now has an anti-trump advantage built into the equation, and without trump’s blessing, they don’t stand much of a chance except in the reddest of deep red states and districts.

This is the problem with a “populist” who has embraced the foaming mouthed racist, scoff-law, anti-democracy element of the population. They will NEVER go back to rank and file republican status in sufficient and reliably enough numbers to be useful. They are NOT going to vote for Romney, or Kasich, or Rubio, or Cruz (well, maybe Cruz if he projects a little more racism). It’s trump or nothing. And the republican politicians know it now.

[Garrett78]

43. Yesterday, I asked what it would take to get a conviction:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212541965

[Hortensis]

45. It's all about power and 2020. If throwing Trump under the bus

would keep them from losing the senate they'd vote for removal. If running the bus back and forth until he was nothing but an orange smear would get them the presidency also, by all means.

They must be working on various strategies, but all must depend on how the electoral mood shifts or holds. And that's too early to say. They started from a position of securing the large majority of their voters by protecting Trump, of course. What strategies are dominating now? What is Fox an indicator of?

[kpete]

47. The bottom line:

Axios shows just how strong that wall is: 51 Republican senators from states Trump won in 2016. He only needs 34 to save him from being convicted and removed from office if the House impeaches him.

36 Republican senators represent Trump states where he’s still popular. 15 of them are up for re-election.
15 Republican senators represent Trump states where his approval ratings are underwater, but only 4 of them are up for re-election.
Trump could lose 17 senators from his red wall — or 19 Republicans if Collins and Gardner were in the mix — and still stay in office.

The bottom line: Trump believes the combination of right-wing media backing plus GOP senators’ fear of crossing Trump voters will save him.

https://www.axios.com/trump-senate-republican-defense-impeachment-2b23249b-3552-45e8-bdbd-f1af0f9da707.html

[Efilroft Sul]

53. Time to getting the news out about how dirty the Republican senators are.

Tie Trump and Putin around their necks and hang them all.

[lame54]

48. IT DOES MATTER HOW STRONG THE EVIDENCE IS...

True - the senate will never convict him but the task is to show the world what they are voting against

[still_one]

51. Yup. It would take 20 Senate Republicans. Not going to happen

[grantcart]

54. He will be severely wounded if a majority votes against hum but not the

two thirds.

Also having him lose the vote barely but stay on the ballot is in our interest.

[Demsrule86]

60. I predict no GOP Senator will vote for conviction...no one...period.

[grantcart]

63. I predict 8-10

Lamar Alexander and Richard Burr are retiring and are highly likely to vote for

There are Senators from Blue states facing an election this cycle that will have to vote for removal to keep their seats.

Romney and a few others are in red states with a majority of Rep who are against Trump and want to keep their reputations.

There are lots of Mormons like Flake and they care heavily concentrated in ID, UT, AZ, CO.

In AZ McSally will lose Republicans if she does support removal and lose independents if she doesn't so she may calculate that 10 years from now she will be in a better position by standing up for principle

[grantcart]

64. There is another dynamic at play

The Republican party is run by its donor and media class.

At some point they will reach diminishing returns and cut Trump off.

Paul Ryan has been working on Fox board of directors on a post-Trump era.

I note that Tucker Carlson came out tonight against the Ukrainian phone call.

If Fox decides that moving to Pence would be better in the long term Trump would be history.