Trump is "in full-blown panic over the failure of his economic policies"

[mia]

Paul Krugman says President Trump is "in full-blown panic over the failure of his economic policies"

...“It’s fairly obvious,” the columnist explained.”Trump thinks that federal debt is like a business loan, which you can pay down early to take advantage of lower interest rates. He’s clearly unaware that federal debt actually consists of bonds, which can’t be prepaid (which is one reason interest rates on federal debt are always lower than, say, rates on home mortgages). That is, he imagines that the government’s finances can be managed as if the U.S. were a casino or a golf course, and it never occurred to him to ask anyone at Treasury whether that’s how it works.”

As to why Trump is in panic mode, Krugman suggests, ” While there’s no economic emergency, Trump apparently feels that he’s facing a political emergency. He expected a booming economy to be his big winning issue next year. If, as now seems likely, economic performance is mediocre at best, he’s in deep trouble.”

“Voters have noticed: Trump’s approval rating on the economy, while still higher than his overall approval, has started to decline,” Krugman wrote. “Hence the panicky demands that the Fed pull out all the stops. But while Trump realizes that he’s in trouble, there’s no indication that he understands why. He’s not the kind of person who ever admits, even to himself, that he made mistakes; his instinct is always to blame someone else while doubling down on his failed policies.”

As the economist sees it, Trump has put himself in a corner with his trade war and may have to do the one thing he never does: Admit he was wrong....

https://www.salon.com/2019/09/13/paul-krugman-says-president-trump-is-in-full-blown-panic-over-the-failure-of-his-economic-policies_partner/

[guillaumeb]

1. And the rest of us are in a panic over the fact that 38% of voters

approve of what this madman is doing.

[empedocles]

5. The upper part of that 38% may be softer than some think

[crazytown]

16. The part above the neck.

[ooky]

28. The part above their necks is thick and hard.

[guillaumeb]

25. The non-racist, greedy portion?

You could be correct.

[mia]

8. Some of us are in a panic because there is nothing that can stop him.

Trump has proven himself to be beyond the law.

[smirkymonkey]

34. This is what concerns me most.

No matter how much he screws up, no matter how crazy he gets or how destructive he becomes, there still seems to be no way to remove him from office or make him pay for his crimes. I am starting to think that there is only one way to get rid of him, but I can't say it here.

[guillaumeb]

42. Only because of GOP collusion.

If the GOP loses control of Congress, Trump becomes much weaker.

[MyMission]

41. Here are some hopeful numbers

Gallup (from Wikipedia)
As of October 2017, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrat, 24% identified as Republican, and 42% as Independent.[3] Additionally, polling showed that 46% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 39% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"[4]
(I didn't take time to look up most recent numbers)

So 88% (repugs) of 24% approve of him, which is 21% of voters. That's his loyal base. Additional approval comes from right leaning independent and libertarian types, which I estimate at less than 50% and falling. That creates the 38%. And many of those independents will not support him, because they are independent and think outside party lines, especially after all the crap he's done or tried to do! They'll have other repugs and libertarian to vote for!

There are (7%) more Democrats and (7% more) Democratic leaning independents, than loyal republicons.

(I have a degree in applied research, emphasis on statistics, and sometimes crunch numbers for fun.)
Of course, the fact that he got 3 million fewer votes speaks to our electoral college system. Still, with each passing day he is losing support, not from his base, but those (independents) who gave him their vote the first time. That gives me hope.

Of course they cheat. I'm in more of a panic about that.
Cheating is the bigger problem here, not the numbers. The numbers do not bode well for him!

[guillaumeb]

43. Welcome to DU.

And yes, at this time, the raw numbers look bad, but we know that emotion and fear are great motivators.

And there is the systematic cheating in the form of voter suppression, gerrymandering, voting machine fraud, and dark money.

[TeamPooka]

2. Trump will never admit he was wrong in public. he'll just call anything Fake News and move on

[mia]

12. ..."he'll just call anything Fake News and move on"

because he knows that that Congress can do nothing to stop him.

[TeamPooka]

13. "will do" not "can do."

[mia]

18. Am I wrong to think that the House is helpless

because the Senate will block anything the House proposes? Is there any goverment power that has the will to stop him? I don't think so.

[TeamPooka]

21. The House should do what is right, regardless of what the Senate will do or not do.

If Trump has broken the law or violated the Constitution they must act on it, not look the other way for political reasons.

[Caliman73]

33. You aren't wrong but it is still "will do" not "can do"

"Can do nothing" implies that there is no mechanism to change. Like, we know that there was massive interference in the 2016 election and it is likely invalid in its result, but there is no mechanism within our Constitution that would allow the government to nullify the results and have another election. Whereas in the states, like in North Carolina, there is a mechanism as we saw in the special election this past week.

"Will do nothing" is about political will and desire. Here you are absolutely correct. The Senate, which is controlled by Republicans, will not use its Constitutional powers to stop Trump's stupidity and criminality.

[Jim__]

3. Before Trump admits he is wrong, he'll blame it on China.

They didn't respond to his trade war the way he thought they would, therefore, it's their fault.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

7. or blame Europe, where Teflon Don has declared other trade-wars.

The costs of his trade-wars will be passed straight along to consumers, including his conned constituents. Due to lack of customers for Chinese, European and Mexican products, importers and retailers will suffer, as well.

[pwb]

4. I am saving just because Trump is nuts.

He is over reaching everywhere. He cant help it.

[mia]

10. With the suggestion of - 0% interest rates,

I'm saving cash. I seriously think there may be a run on the banks in the near future.
Trump will run the U.S. into the ground.

[sakabatou]

6. If he's in panic mode, he'll try to accumulate as much power as possible

[Maraya1969]

9. It is interesting that the GOP can't understand the concept of spending more and taking in less

will end you up with a depression. Even in a family's finances; if you throttle yourself with debt and end up getting a lower salary you are going down.

Bush gave out the type of tax cuts that Trump did and then he started 2 wars with all of that less money. And we ended up with the worst recession since the great depression. Trump gave a huge tax cut to the wealthiest people and and he spends money like a drunken sailor. Also he tries to cover it with tariffs which become a strain on working people because tariffs just increase the prices on everything.

It's like 8th grade math and they cant do it.

[JohnnyRingo]

20. I know! Right?

I always figured they turned the rules of supply and demand upside down for obvious reasons. They even call it "Supply Side Economics".

Their theory, according to The Great Gipper In The Sky, is that raining money on the so called job creators causes them to mount unwarranted hiring at good wages causing an oversupply. Those workers in turn create a demand for those goods which then justifies their very existence.

It's like the tail chasing it's dog.

[Danascot]

11. He has policy?

nt

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

14. I also expect he thinks that federal debt is like the business loans

he walked away from with his various bankruptcies. And he probably thinks that he can build the wall cheaply by not paying all of the vendors, and paying the others less than promised. That's how he's always done it.

[Loge23]

15. Panic yes, but policies?

He doesn't have any economic policies.
He doesn't understand economics.
He has no plan, it's make it up as he goes along.
He won't ever admit he was wrong, because he has no idea what is right.

[JohnnyRingo]

17. Well I didn't know that about the debt either.

The difference is that I'm lucky to balance a checkbook and admit I have no business being in charge of anything beyond my DVR recordings. That means the guy in the White House is a bigger idiot than me. Help us.

Clint Eastwood always said: "A man has got to know his limitations".

[Claritie Pixie]

19. Here's where he's trying to go - lower or nonexistent interest rates, lower fed reserve standards.

China has already lowered their reserve standards for banks.

Of course this will benefit the ultra wealthy and Trump himself. It will cause a period of growth then a crash that probably won't happen until after the election.

He's purposefully wrecking our economy - the global economy - for personal gain.

I am not sure I believe he's in panic mode. Destruction is his drug.

[TheFarseer]

22. I'm convinced

He thinks if we get down to negative interest rates, then the Chinese holding t-bills will have to pay US money. So running up the debt is actually making us money in the future!

[SCVDem]

23. We need to win

the "Court of public opinion!"

The truth will lock him up!

[sandensea]

24. Never too late to change course, Mr. President.

But I'd be very surprised.

[Ferrets are Cool]

26. Well, I never thought I would have ANYTHING in common with that asswipe

but it seems we do.

[RockRaven]

27. Has it occurred to the Moron-in-Chief that if his policies are fucking failures that maybe he should

do the opposite?

[calguy]

29. In order to do that

He'd have to admit he was wrong in the first place. Can't imagine the chosen one ever doing something as sensible as that.

[ReformedGOPer]

30. George Costanza's opposite day!

[keithbvadu2]

31. Donald Trump's Glorious Threat To Default On The National Debt Is Just The Conventional Wisdom

Donald recommended defaulting on the national debt.

Negotiating with the creditors to take less money.

Don’t forget that much of America’s debt is owned by Americans, not just the Chinese and other foreigners .

Donald Trump's Glorious Threat To Default On The National Debt Is Just The Conventional Wisdom

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/05/07/donald-trumps-glorious-threat-to-default-on-the-national-debt-is-just-the-conventional-wisdom/#59ab980ca367

[mia]

36. If Argentina, Greece, and Puerto Rico don't have to repay all of their debt

then we shouldn't have to repay all off our debt either? Am I reading this right?

That phrase, "debt relief" means, "don't ask for all your money back."

Now, this doesn't mean that a Treasury default wouldn't be a bad idea from where we are now. It would be an appalling idea from where we are now in fact. Yes, it would cause vast ructions in the global economy, would increase the interest rate the US had to pay to borrow in the future and so on. Really, a very bad idea indeed. And yet, much as I am loathe to defend The Donald he is actually right here....

If you read Trumps statement as "I'll default on the debt" then of course that's a terrible, truly lousy, economic idea and bad public policy to boot. If you read what he actually said, which is that if the economy crashes and we can't repay the debt then we won't, then it's just a statement of reality. And it's also a simple statement of what we already do in cases of sovereign insolvency anyway. Sure, it happening to the US would be wrenching but as I say, it's been done some 800 times around the world over the centuries. The IMF actually recommends this as the standard modus operandi in such cases. If debts cannot be repaid they won't be. Thus they will be repaid at a discount.

Donald Trump goes a long way out on various limbs with his comments and musings on economic policy. But this one, that a country that cannot repay its debts does not repay its debts is not extreme nor even odd, it's entirely the conventional wisdom. As Argentina, Puerto Rico and Greece all recently proved.

[keithbvadu2]

37. Who owns the debt?

?uuid=05b585b6-a565-11e8-b6ab-ac162d7bc1f7

[mia]

39. With President Trump it looks like everyone loses.

Are there any winners?

[hughee99]

32. The global recession that began shortly after Trump's election in 2016

Should be cause for concern.

[scarytomcat]

35. and how is the managing of casinos and golf courses going Don

? He has no clue about economics or tariffs. He has not kept any of his promises, now he is taking money from the troops for his failed wall policy.

[struggle4progress]

38. "I'll just phone-in my plan from the golf course clubhouse or maybe tweet it"

[bucolic_frolic]

40. People are in full-blown panic mode too

So much so that the savings rate is over 7%. This is unheard of. People are preparing to hunker down because they are being cast adrift by the retreat of social programs, higher food and energy costs, health care costs, maintenance costs from global warming, vehicle costs (have you noticed?).

There is also invisible inflation. Shrinking products, smaller sizes and price increases that can't be noticed, quality costs (particularly in vehicles, have you noticed?), clothing costs that are about to hit hard. America will be punished with scarcity and inflation - stagflation - due to Trump debt and Trump Tariffs, not to mention quality of life issues - polluted air and water and theft of public lands by Trump cronies. Let's not forget Mass Shooting Murders, corruption, emoluments cleavage, fear of public places, and the considerable and immeasureable as yet costs of shipping everything to our homes because it's cheaper (is it? are we measuring pollution and traffic from all the delivery vehicles?) and because we're afraid of public places nowadays.

Can anyone relate?

Yeah, this is a winning combination, Don-oh! You broke what didn't need fixing!

[tblue37]

44. No, he won't admit error. He will just backpedal and declare victory. nt