Special Election Results (Tonight)

[applegrove]

Special Election Results

September 10, 2019 at 7:15 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2019/09/10/special-election-results-2/

"SNIP......

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET for the special elections in North Carolina’s 9th and 3rd congressional districts.

Politico is tracking results as the come in.

.....SNIP"

I'm hyped - are you?

I will update thread.



https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/10/north-carolina-special-election-1488508

"SNIP....

Democrat Dan McCready and Republican Dan Bishop spent Election Day hunting for votes that could tip a razor-close race in Charlotte and its suburbs, home to a majority of voters in the 9th Congressional District. McCready told supporters Tuesday morning that the race is “really close” — but that a victory would “send a shock wave across this entire country.”

......

There is also a special election in North Carolina’s 3rd District on Tuesday, where Republican Greg Murphy and Democrat Allen Thomas are competing to succeed the late GOP Rep. Walter Jones, who died earlier this year. But that heavily Republican district has attracted far less attention — and money — than the Bishop-McCready race.

.....SNIP"



POLITICO UPDATES:

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2019/north-carolina/special-election/sept-10/

[underpants]

1. Marking so I can check back in

Thanks.

[spanone]

2. THANK YOU!!!

[democrank]

3. Thank you

[sheshe2]

4. Thanks...

Will be back!

[brettdale]

5. Is the Dem a chance?

Fingers crossed.

[applegrove]

6. McCready has a chance in the 9th. I don't think Thomas has a chance in the 3rd. N/T

[LenaBaby61]

8. I don't think Thomas has a chance in the 3rd.

My friend told me that Thomas has NO chance in the 3rd District because he used to live there.

Notice I said he used to live there That race was called just now for Murphy.

[applegrove]

7. Right now:

U.S. House, North Carolina 9th congressional district

Percent Candidate Party Votes Winner
50.5% Dan McCready Dem 25,389
49% Dan Bishop GOP 24,617
0.5%Other23

50% of precincts reporting (0/210)50,241 total votes

+ View detailed results



U.S. House, North Carolina 3rd congressional district

The heavily Republican 3rd District stretches across Eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks and Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune.

Percent Candidate Party Votes Winner
57.6% Greg Murphy GOP 27,588
41.6% Allen Thomas Dem 19,946
0.8%Other368

22.5% of precincts reporting (53/236)47,902 total votes

[Roland99]

10. 8:31pm - McCready up 6,100 votes. 6.3%

Dan McCready 50,218 52.9%
Dan Bishop 44,176 46.6
Jeff Scott 321 0.3
Allen Smith 184 0.2
94,899 votes, 16% reporting (33 of 210 precincts)

[applegrove]

11. Thanks. I'm getting different numbers than you.

[Legends303]

12. Please let this be an uspet

I don't get my hopes if it shows the Democrat leading(please let it stay that way) and wound up loosing anyway.

[applegrove]

15. Crossing my fingers.

[applegrove]

13. 8:40

U.S. House, North Carolina 9th congressional district

The 9th District stretches from the suburbs of Charlotte east to Fayetteville, taking in rural and exurban counties along the border with South Carolina. The seat has been in Republican hands for decades.

Percent Candidate Party Votes Winner

51.9% Dan McCready Dem 52,180

47.5% Dan Bishop GOP 47,736


23.8% of precincts reporting (50/210)100,456 total votes

[Hermit-The-Prog]

14. thanks for this thread and updates!

[Roland99]

16. Only 1800 vote lead. 34% reporting

[Legends303]

17. Gah looks like Bishop made up most from Union County than 2018

[LenaBaby61]

18. Yeah ....

This is going to be a nail-biter .....

[blm]

19. McCready is overperforming in Mecklenburg - This is why I donate

to Dem GOTV in Mecklenburg. Their county Dem machine makes every dollar count.

[grantcart]

24. Only 14% in from Mecklenburg

[applegrove]

20. 9:07

U.S. House, North Carolina 9th congressional district

The 9th District stretches from the suburbs of Charlotte east to Fayetteville, taking in rural and exurban counties along the border with South Carolina. The seat has been in Republican hands for decades.

Percent Candidate Party Votes Winner
49.9% Dan McCready Dem 61,123
49.5% Dan Bishop GOP 60,713

0.6%Other701

46.2% of precincts reporting (97/210)122,537 total votes

[applegrove]

21. Dam it os close.

[Roland99]

22. 55% and same spread

[Roland99]

23. 58% and Bishop up 900votes

[a kennedy]

25. Damn.......

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/10/us/elections/results-north-carolina-house-district-9-special-election.html

[applegrove]

28. Too close to call still i would say.

[grantcart]

30. Look at the counties Union is in Mecklenburg only 28% in

[a kennedy]

44. Did you hear they had a fire in Mecklenburg??? I think it was mentioned on Rachel's show.

[grantcart]

46. 1 precinct had a problem but I think it was resolved

[grantcart]

26. 3 Dem counties still coming. Rep heavy counties already in

[Roland99]

27. Still makes me nervous. We see and say that all the time but then....

[bearsfootball516]

29. Cohn and Wasserman are leaning pretty heavily toward Bishop right now

[grantcart]

31. Link please

[drray23]

32. I think mc cready wins.

The rural counties are in. The last big Republican county is 81 % in whereas the big dem county ( which is 1/3 of the entire population ) in only 24% in and mccready is over performing there. He is at 59 %.

[OliverQ]

33. Nah, Bishop is going to win. McCready is underperforming in some counties

compared to last year.

[blm]

38. Overperforming in Meck and that is where outstanding votes are.

[FBaggins]

53. The counties aren't homogeneous

It all depends on which precincts are still out.

On edit - Half of the remaining Mecklenburg votes just came in with no significant change in net votes in the county. Those last 25% need to be blue precincts

88% reporting - now down by ~3,200 (2%)

[Va Lefty]

34. Hope you are right

[lindysalsagal]

35. 9th is close enough to mean bad news for the gop

Good.

[Drunken Irishman]

52. This is bad news for the Dems...

The Republican is out-performing areas compared to 2018. McCready also ran for an entire two years, had an opponent whose party tried stealing the last election and is currently on pace to do worse than he did a year ago.

[Drunken Irishman]

36. Bishop is going to win.

[a kennedy]

47. Yup.....

[napi21]

37. It's been a real nail biter since the poll closed. I'm still hoping for McCready but it's going to

be real close.

[EarlG]

39. Looks like it's going to come down to turnout in Mecklenburg

McCready is slightly underperforming his 2018 totals in the six small counties, but turnout is a lot lower. Bishop is on track in Union. McCready is currently way overperforming in Mecklenburg, with 28% reporting there.

Edit: Bishop has done what he needs to do in Union with 100% reporting. It’s all on Mecklenburg now.

[Legends303]

51. MC is going to have make some votes in order to make a 2000

Vote difference.

[grantcart]

54. Question is how many early votes in Mecklenburg cannibalize votes from voting day

On straight extrapolation McCreedy should have 4-5,000 plurality left in Mecklenburg

[Takket]

41. bishop now up about 2000, union 100% in

Mecklenberg only 54% in and McCready up 7000 there. If that trend continues McCready will win by about 5000.

[Legends303]

43. I hope your right

But bladen has 58% and that’s heavily GOP

[sharedvalues]

45. Precinct-level model says no :(

[sharedvalues]

42. The fight is long, we will lose some battles but fight the war to win!

[CousinIT]

48. NC rednecks (sorry NC'linians) won't allow a Dem in these areas.

The rural areas + those around Charlotte/Mecklenberg - blood red with exception of a few spots. NC is always a disappointment.

[a kennedy]

49. Still behind......

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/10/us/elections/results-north-carolina-house-district-9-special-election.html

[Tiggeroshii]

56. The largest county left to count is +17 with 50% left. Thats 50k votes left favoring dems

All repug counties have been counted. I will be happy to call it for mcready at this point.

[splunge63]

57. Sincerely hope you're right*

[FBaggins]

59. Now down to 25% left

+13 now. The last 25% were almost 50/50

[a kennedy]

60. Thank you.........so hope you're right......

[Drunken Irishman]

62. Mecklenburg I'm seeing at 80% in...

[Tiggeroshii]

64. It narrowed a lot in robeson when I posted that.

Far less sure at this point :

[applegrove]

50. 9:47

U.S. House, North Carolina 9th congressional district

The 9th District stretches from the suburbs of Charlotte east to Fayetteville, taking in rural and exurban counties along the border with South Carolina. The seat has been in Republican hands for decades.

Percent Candidate Party Votes Winner
50.5% Dan Bishop GOP 80,927
48.9% Dan McCready Dem 78,468

0.6%Other954

78.6% of precincts reporting (165/210)160,349 total votes

[a kennedy]

58. Hope he can pull this off......not looking the best tho.....

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/10/us/elections/results-north-carolina-house-district-9-special-election.htmlThe

[Ace Rothstein]

61. Looks like we had VERY poor turnout in Mecklenburg County.

[Bettie]

69. Was some of this area

affected by the storm? Could that have affected turnout?

[triron]

74. How about machine malfunction?

[diva77]

80. or functioning properly with malware

[FBaggins]

75. Nope

It's Charlotte.

[Bettie]

77. I didn't know which areas

got hit...and my grasp of specific geography of that area is sketchy at best!

Rats.

[FBaggins]

71. True

Union county looks like 40% turnout... while Mecklenburg just crossed half of that (with a dozen precincts yet to report).

[Tiggeroshii]

73. ....

[Legends303]

63. Bishop's lead over 3000 votes now I'm calling it for

Gop with 88%

[George II]

65. Not looking good.

[Takket]

66. yeah i thought we had this with mecklenberg at only 54%........

but the remaining precincts must have had very small population because it jumped to 76% and the vote total barely moved.

this one is over.

[Tiggeroshii]

67. I think Bishop will win by about 2k votes.

[Takket]

70. people just never learn............. it is such a shame.

[Tiggeroshii]

72. Mecklenburg has a million people. Even if it is only partially part of the county for the district,

how are only 60k people voting??

[triron]

76. Not plausible

[triron]

79. Repuke shenanigan.

[triron]

85. election fraud again..

[triron]

97. WTF happened in Robeson?

[bearsfootball516]

112. AA population that came out to vote in 2018 didn't come out this time.

[Iliyah]

68. I'm one who does not trust the Republicans . .

That said, hats off for Dan McCready!

[secondwind]

78. With 94% in, they still haven't called it for Bishop.

[Tiggeroshii]

81. Politico has.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

84. And so has the NY Times. n/t

[Tiggeroshii]

88. and so have i

[CaliforniaPeggy]

90. I feel the same sadness, my dear Tiggeroshii.......

[Celerity]

89. In NC-9 , our turnout and vote margin collapsed in multiple counties

We went from winning Robeson by almost 5000 votes to almost losing it, and then the Rethugs flipped Cumberland and Richmond outright

2020



2018

[CaliforniaPeggy]

91. Did the Democrats just give up? Or..........?

Or were the republicans that determined?

This is breaking my heart.

[Celerity]

100. Rethugs surged (in intensity, not raw turnout), and our base didn't turn out

I d not have the raw data, but the biggest drop-offs seem to come from high minority areas (which is what fucked us the worst in 2016). Robeson, Cumberland and Richmond are heavily A-A, probably 30% or so overall.

[Tiggeroshii]

101. The closeness actually shows we tried.

Trump won this by double digits in 2016, and they barely kept it by 2% today. From the nytimes:

"As Mr. Trump heads into a re-election year, the closeness of the outcome in a district that hasn’t been held by a Democrat since the 1960s confirmed once more that he energizes Democrats and some independents to fight against him just as much as he inspires Republicans to fight for him. In 2018, Democratic candidates flipped several G.O.P.-held House seats in districts that Mr. Trump had won, a sign of distaste among moderate and suburban voters who reluctantly backed him in 2016. "

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/10/us/politics/north-carolina-special-election.html

[Tiggeroshii]

95. Isn't this like a Trump +15 district?

We lost it by (so far 2.2%). Turnout is always higher in general elections. We could win this back in a little over a year....

[Polybius]

102. But in November it was closer

I get it that it's a special election, but that didn't stop Republicans from turning out today.

[Tiggeroshii]

103. One article I saw said there are over 30 repubican held districts less republican than this.

Meaning if we get within a few points in enough of them, we will still be gaining a good amount in 2020.

[bearsfootball516]

114. Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.

It's why it's hard to beat Republicans in these low-turnout elections. They come out every. single. time.

[Polybius]

118. It takes an extraordinary situation for us to come out in force on special elections

Roy Moore was just that situation. This one apparently wasn't important enough.

[Celerity]

104. Trump plus 11.6 in 2016 nt

[Tiggeroshii]

105. and +3% statewide

If he does even close to as bad as the republican candidates in their districts in 2018 and today, he will lose the state. I'm convinced there is little to say he won't. In this district alone he might be down 9%. Add that up among the rest of the state and he's toast.

[Celerity]

107. I think if Biden picks Abrams as his VP we have great shots at GA, NC, FL

Unfortunately, those are 3 of the most corrupt Rethug states in the US, especially GA and NC.

This is going to be a brutal election. Only way the country doe not partially tear itself apart is a MASSIVE Rump loss, with him then being tried and convicted and imprisoned post-presidency, and finally a 'de-nazification' (not literally, but in de-programming intent) scheme to try and ram the white power genie back in the bottle (which I doubt will happen).

I am afraid forces have been re-released and re-invigorated in the zeitgeist that are going to take decades to diminish.

[Tiggeroshii]

108. NC has been getting better with Cooper, I think, and the chances of corruption have been limited.

A Southerner would definitely help the ticket but the sheer unpopularity of trump is noteworthy for those states. I remain optimistic.

[Celerity]

109. +10000

[orangecrush]

82. If it's close

Their cheating will make the difference.

It will come out after it is over.

[Tiggeroshii]

83. Strange that the most democratic county is the last to be counted.

still 10% left

[orangecrush]

86. If it's close

They always win.

Cheat.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

[bearsfootball516]

98. You realize that sometimes, you just don't win, right?

Sometimes, you just don’t get as many votes.

[Tiggeroshii]

99. It's a little worse when you have an incompetent megalomaniac representing

the party that wins. Due to that fact, reality is far harder to accept.

[applegrove]

87. U.S. House,North Carolina 9th congressional district Politico 10:19

U.S. House, North Carolina 9th congressional district

The 9th District stretches from the suburbs of Charlotte east to Fayetteville, taking in rural and exurban counties along the border with South Carolina. The seat has been in Republican hands for decades.

Percent Candidate Party Votes Winner
50.9% Dan Bishop GOP 93,725 ✓
48.6% Dan McCready Dem 89,486

0.6%Other1,103

97.6% of precincts reporting (205/210)184,314 total votes

[budkin]

92. Looks like fraud pays off!

This race should have defaulted to McCready after Harris was busted. Instead, they get a do-over?

[Takket]

93. someone explain to me.........

how Mecklenberg had McCready up 7000 with 54% of the vote counted and he finished only 8000 up in that county. since the most urban areas (blue) are almost always totaled nd submitted last, how did he do that bad in the last 46%? were they actually all red areas in the county?

[Tiggeroshii]

96. It looks like the precincts counted 1st were the large ones, and 50% of precincts left were likely

rural with only a few hundred people each.

[Blaukraut]

94. Low turnout always favors the Republicans.

Apparently, Dem voters have the attention spans of gnats and can't be bothered to vote unless the house is on fire or something.

[Takket]

106. drumpf will be celebating his appearance putting bishop over the top

[MyMission]

110. I hate my state!

Living here in Western NC for 16 years. Born and raised in NYC. Dreaming of moving back to Northeast.

Bitterly disappointed...I hate my state! Bears repeating. Damn rednecks! Dumbfucks. Shit for brains southerners. They probably rigged this election too.

And meadows is my rep(rehensible) gerrymandered con grrr assman, worst of all.

What is wrong with all these people, the ones who voted and those who didn't?!?!
Shit, bullshit, more shit, fuck this shit!

[ooky]

111. The good news is he's still in the minority party.

It doesn't mean as much when they don't control the House. And maybe we will get him next year on the down ballot when more voters turn out.

[mnhtnbb]

113. I hear you.

Born in Manhattan, grew up in Jersey.

Been in NC since 2000. Didn't think I could ever live in the south. Really enjoyed Chapel Hill--surrounded by progressive Dems-- until the Repubs took over the state after gerrymandering from 2010 election. Look where we are 9 years later. It has taken that long to FINALLY get a court decision to redo the state districts.

Rather than moving back to north east, move to a blue area here in NC. Asheville, Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill...we need your vote!

[MyMission]

115. Blue dots in a red state and red region

Thanks for commiserating.

I'm not leaving any time soon, but harbor many thoughts about escaping this evangelical region. I tell folks I want to retire to the Northeast, when many have retired here from elsewhere. Financially unable to make a move anywhere at the present time. But I do go to Asheville fairly often, to enjoy the company of like-minded people and the illusion that I live among them.

And I am both hopeful and skeptical that fixing the gerrymandering will yield better results.

[mnhtnbb]

117. We had much better representation of the purple state of NC

prior to the gerrymandering. We had 7 Dem reps and 6 Repub reps instead of the 10 Repubs and 3 Dems after the gerrymandering.

It is true you can't get away from the red completely, but if you are at some point able to make a move to a blue area like Asheville, or the Triangle, you will end up meeting a lot more people who are sympathetic to Democratic causes and live Democratic values.

[Joe941]

116. Are there any reports of fraudulent activity?