By the end of the period, the flow on the south side of the trough
should cause the cyclone to move northeastward near the Carolinas.
The westward shift of the NHC track within the first 48 hours
necessitates the change from a Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical
Storm Warning for a portion of the Florida east coast. Although
the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not
focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a
distinct possibility.
Key Messages:
1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and
Grand Bahama through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect
for these areas.
2. A tropical storm warning is now in effect for a portion of the
Florida east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn
northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along
portions of the Florida east coast by the middle part of this week.
Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they
are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.
3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm
surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.
4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are possible over coastal sections of the southeast and lower
mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/al05/al052019.discus.032.shtml?As we can see, no mention of the Gulf of Mexico, or Alabama.
We also have their list of places with possibilities of 34 knot (minimum for 'tropical storm') winds. Again, on the one before Trump's brain fart, nowhere in Alabama appears:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/al05/al052019.wndprb.033.shtml? (in contrast to, say, JFK Airport in New York,or Allentown, PA, which both had a 3% chance by then - that shows how far the list extended). The last time anywhere in Alabama appeared on the list was Saturday, 0900 UTC (0500 EDT) - a 5% chance at Montgomery, AL:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/al05/al052019.wndprb.028.shtml?
So this admiral is lying about the forecasts too. Places in New York, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts were at a tiny risk of storm force winds in the Sunday morning forecast; but not in Alabama.
= new reply since forum marked as read
