Stocks Nosedive Amid Fears of a Trump-Induced Recession
Donald Trump is currently running for reelection on the strength of the economy, which he believes will outweigh all the racism, corruption, cruelty, incompetence, white supremacy, and obstruction of justice. Yet that pitch is going to become a bit more difficult if the president tips the economy into a recession, the odds of which grow stronger each day, and which today’s market sell-off appears to be foreshadowing.
As of noon on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down a whopping 620 points, or 2.36%. The S&P 500 dropped 2.37%, the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.75% and the Cboe Volatility Index—Wall Street’s fear gauge—spiked to a high of 22. Most alarmingly, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell below the 2-year rate, a bond market phenomenon that historically signals a coming recession. The yield on U.S. 30-year bonds also dropped to an all-time low; the fact that both occurred at the same time indicates investors are concerned and bracing for a slowdown in the U.S. and global economy. “Historically speaking the inversion of that benchmark yield curve measure means that we now must expect a recession anywhere from 6 to 18 months from today which will drastically, and negatively, shift our medium-to-longer term outlook on the broader markets,” Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, wrote in a note on Wednesday.
While it’s possible investors’ fears are overblown, Arthur Bass, managing director of fixed income financing, futures, and rates at Wedbush Securities, told CNBC he wouldn’t count on it. “I have to yield to the historical evidence and note that the phrase ‘this time is different’ usually doesn’t work,” he said, noting the Trumpian headwinds we’re facing. “It’s a very unusual time period: We haven’t had tariff issues like we’re dealing with currently in about 80 years. It’s about dealing with negative rates in most of the European countries and Japan. Again, I have respect for the inverted yield curve as a signal that recession is ahead.”
Also rattling investors is an apparent recession in Germany, which generates a sizable portion of its GDP from trade, and which may be a bellwether for how Trump’s tariffs are weighing on the global economy. Per CNBC:
Investors are increasingly worried about a global economic slowdown as weaker-than-expected data in China deepened the gloom in the world’s second-largest economy. Official data published Wednesday showed growth of China’s industrial output slowed to 4.8% in July from a year earlier, the weakest growth in 17 years.
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