From a former disbeliever: Why Texas could go blue in 2020
(CNN)Texas politics are in the spotlight again this week. A number of House Republicans from the state have announced their retirements, and, after a mass shooting in El Paso this past weekend, Beto O'Rourke tussled with President Donald Trump over differing responses to the shootings.
In the backdrop of these developments is a Texas electorate that seems to be divided much more than it used to be.
It's a state with a voter base that seems to rapidly be shifting toward the center -- and I believe it could go Democratic in next year's presidential election for the first time since 1976.
I was once a skeptic on Texas turning blue, but I've changed my tune because Trump is a uniquely unpopular Republican in Texas who seems to be the driver of an important development: Like other Americans, Texans with a college degree are shifting rapidly from red to blue, and Democrats have a lot of room to grow with them in Texas.
This doesn't mean the state will go Democratic in 2020 (Democrats not named Joe Biden currently are losing to Trump in the Lone Star state in high quality polling), but it is a real possibility.
Trump's net approval rating (approval - disapproval) among registered voters has been slightly negative in Texas throughout his presidency. The latest Quinnipiac University poll put it at -1 points. All other elected Texas Republican officials had at least a +8 point net approval rating. This poll comes on top of the 2018 exit poll giving Trump a +1 net approval rating, and the midterm electorate in Texas is likely more Republican leaning than a 2020 presidential electorate will be. Trump won the state by 9 in 2016.
If the 2020 election were held today and it were solely a referendum on Trump, Texas would be a toss-up.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/08/politics/could-texas-go-blue-2020/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Politics%29
= new reply since forum marked as read
