Don't get too excited about the ups and downs of the stock market

[NewJeffCT]

sure, today was a bad day for the market, and therefore bad for Trump.

However, I fully expect that some time next year (maybe at the RNC?) he will announce that he's reached a deal with China to end the Trade War. It will be a farce, but the media will fawn over the Great Negotiator and the Markets will soar for several weeks afterwards - maybe through election day.

of course, the deal will fall apart in early November of 2020 and the markets will go bigly in the tank.

It's also tricky on the timing - if the economy has another weak quarter or two with 2.0% of lower growth, he may try to pull the trigger early on announcing a deal.

[brooklynite]

1. We will do nothing different, as we always do...

We will keep up our regular 401(k) and IRA contributions. If the market goes down, we'll buy more shares. If the market goes up, we'll earn more.

[stopdiggin]

2. assuming the Chinese want to

I know it is generally assumed that China is in the weaker position here .. but China is also a proponent of long term strategies. China might well calculate that another few months of economic pain is worth the sacrifice on balance against the prospect of 4 more years of incoherent and unpredictable trade policy.

(and it would also be a MAJOR international coup for the Chinese to have a decisive hand in bringing down an, again internationally, reviled and hated political figure.)

[sir pball]

5. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a China v. Russia hack-war this election.

While the The Great Empire doesn't really like any American administration, Cheeto Benito is a particular thorn in their side, and they don't take things like that lightly.

Maybe they'll want to prove they're the greater neo-superpower (information warfare and outright hacking) than Russia, it could get interesting. Maybe the Dem nominee should ask them, on stage, to find Trump's tax returns?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

3. This may be an unpopular opinion

but we shouldn't concentrate so much on attacking Trump on the economy. There are still broad economic inequality issues that need to be addressed but I think that the right message to convey should be that we can have a strong(er) economy with somebody who is more competent and stable than Trump and who won't pick silly random trade fights that harm farmers and consumers and would be a better person.

[gratuitous]

4. Pick up on Republican phrasing

Republicans love them some market stability. Always on about how those he-man captains of industry just can't turn a buck or two without some kind of predictability in the economy. I suggest posing the question in those terms: How does Trump's policy du jour (or policy de minuite) help assure a stable market economy? His whiplash proposals and half-baked pronouncements, based on whoever he listened to last, can't really be very reassuring to our job creators can it?

Assuming a certain level of cognizance on their part, the dissonance should be quite jarring.

[sir pball]

6. His "good" economy is laughably unfair though.

I'll admit I have a moderate chunk of money, more than I make in a year and less than $1mil, in stocks, and even with the downs, I've seen my value go up a good bit. But that kind of economic gain really does only benefit those of us who are able to invest; we certainly aren't the 1% but we're also not the coal-mining, eternally struggling truly rural class.

My wife is from a town of 600 in central Louisiana; those are the people who buy Trumpian "prosperity" while perversely benefitting the least from it, either through poverty or idiocy...example, my father in law has been a hard-working union (hahaha) concrete pourer for 40 years, he makes decent money, has everything paid off, watches Fox, and voted Trump, and then complains "They say the economy is good but I ain't seen none of that!", and then the very next day takes my wife to cosign on his safe deposit box...with roughly six figures of cash in it because he "don't trust them investment people, just a scheme to take yer money!" It's apparently an ingrained thing among the real rural folk; best place for your money is under your mattress - but then this "roaring economy" does two things for you: Jack, and Shit.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

7. Don't get me wrong

I'm not agreeing that the economic picture is great for a lot of people. It's (still) vastly better for the 1% than everybody else right now. I'm just saying that it's the perception that the economy is good right now and probably for the foreseeable future. I'm just suggesting that we may not be able to successfully fight against that perception but we should concentrate on arguing that: a.)Trump inherited a strengthening economy from Obama (whose policies deserve more of the credit) and b.)Trump is too unstable and wily for the market and that somebody more stable and competent would be preferred to keep things going strong. Of course, all bets are off if things noticeably worsen between now and November 2020 but I just think that fighting against the *perception* that things are going well with the economy is going to be difficult for us without it possibly coming across as "talking down" the economy. That's just my $0.02 but I agree with what you're saying.

[sir pball]

8. You are right, but I'd say that your first point, at least, is a loss

It's definitely TRUE, but ain't no Trump supporter going to BELIEVE it - he could say he walked on water and raised the dead and they'd eat it up; the economy was in the shits with Obama and Trump fixed it all and that's just The Truth. FFS, my aunt and uncle, who have a lot more than I do in the market and have certainly seen the reality, believe that, because it's what Rush says.

The second point is definitely a good one to use, especially if the volatility carries on for more than a few weeks and is obviously more than an "adjustment". Twitchy up-and-downs are really hard to play down, especially if it's in the big international markets; it's a real hard spin when the talking heads on CNBC (and Kudlow :eyeroll can only say "let's see what happens next week..."

[NewJeffCT]

9. Yes, it's unfair but

the media isn't going to cover income inequality fairly.

They're reporting that the economy is great - even though it's doing okay and only because they borrowed trillions because of the Trump/Ryan Tax Cuts for the rich. However, Trump is great at promoting a mediocre to above average economy (thanks Obama) as better than it really is.

[sir pball]

11. The "economy" is the "stock market", is the problem.

Market up? Economy Good! Market down? Economy Bad!

Nevermind new car sales and home ownership, or any crap like that.

[NewJeffCT]

12. Job numbers & unemployment play a role as well

and, that's another one - Trump is selling that his jobs numbers are great, but they're not. Democrats are finally pushing back on that a bit - job creation is down under Trump compared to Obama.

However, unemployment is very low because of a continuation of the Obama trend.

[NewJeffCT]

10. I agree with Tim Wise

the focus should be on Trump's racism and sexism and how it makes him unfit for office.

Trump has so many things to attack him over that attacking them on 20 different things doesn't play well - Hillary did that in 2016. Focus on just 1, 2 or maybe 3 things and use them to drive up Democratic turnout