Gary Sick: "Wheels coming off" 45's mideast policy

[Tanuki]

https://lobelog.com/the-wheels-are-coming-off/
(Gary Sick served on the National Security Council staff under Presidents Ford, Carter and Reagan. He was the principal White House aide for Iran during the Iranian Revolution and the hostage crisis and is the author of two books on U.S.-Iran relations, in addition to several other edited books and articles dealing with U.S. Middle East policy. Mr. Sick is a captain (ret.) in the U.S. Navy, with service in the Persian Gulf, North Africa and the Mediterranean. He was the deputy director for International Affairs at the Ford Foundation from 1982 to 1987, where he was responsible for programs relating to U.S. foreign policy. Mr. Sick has a Ph.D. in political science from Columbia University, where he is Adjunct Senior Research Scholar and former director of the Middle East Institute (2000-2003). He taught for 30 years in the School of International and Public Affairs. He is a member (emeritus) of the board of Human Rights Watch in New York and founding chair of its advisory committee on the Middle East and North Africa. He is the executive director of Gulf/2000, an international online research project on political, economic and security developments in the Persian Gulf, being conducted at Columbia University since 1993.)

"A series of events, some of which got little attention in the media, suggest that the wheels may be coming off the Trump administration’s Middle East policy. Admittedly, that policy is not very well articulated, and many knowledgeable observers would regard it as dysfunctional. Yet even a random collection of actions constitute a policy, so let me offer my own interpretation of where we are.

The essential core of the Trump Middle East policy is the alliance with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The effort to bring the two Arab states into close association with Israel was the most innovative element of this policy, as was the blatantly transactional nature of the relationship with the two wealthy Arab states. President Trump defined it quite simply as “Just take the money.”

My understanding of the importance of this alliance was to promote and sustain the Deal of the Century, which was to resolve the Israel-Palestinian dispute once and for all. Israel was obviously an essential player in this process, but Arab cover and money was required to lend the process legitimacy and agency.

The one common interest that tied these parties together was fear and hatred of Iran. None of the Middle East countries could deal with Iran by itself. But the United States could take the lead in weakening and deterring Iran, and perhaps even fomenting regime change in Tehran.

So together, Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Mohammad bin Salman (MbS, crown prince and effective ruler of Saudi Arabia), and Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ, crown prince of Abu Dhabi and effective ruler of the UAE) were going to restructure the landscape of the Middle East.

Reality, of course, intruded.".....(more)

[Demovictory9]

1. Jared will fix it

[sheshe2]

11. He sure will.

[TlalocW]

15. I was driving through FM Hell sometime last month

And caught some of Jay Sekulow's show where he was going about how great Jared's Mideast plan was, and how it's going to be a huge win for the Trump administration, and I thought to myself, "Yeah, let's see how long until it's going down in flames."

Very next day. I actually feel sorry for these people sometimes. I know they're not all convinced of the BS they spew (though some are), and it must be a thankless job to have to carry water for the Trumpites knowing that they're going to fuck everything up.

TlalocW

[TreasonousBastard]

2. Was there ever actually a policy? Sounds more like a scheme.

[mr_lebowski]

3. You have cut to the heart of literally EVERY SINGLE TRUMP 'Policy' ...

It's never a policy, it's literally ALWAYS ... a 'Scheme'.

Or more accurately, A SCAM, actually.

Typically, one designed to financially enrich Trump, perhaps indirectly through enriching his buddies and donors.

[bronxiteforever]

4. +1 Brilliant point.

[bronxiteforever]

5. Kick and recommend.

[Me.]

6. The Question Then Becomes

"There are major shifts in the balance of power underway in the Persian Gulf. They are not what the Trump administration anticipated"

What will those shifts be and who will be pushing them and then of course, what will Putin's role be.

[safeinOhio]

7. Regime change, flash back

To 1953.

[Zoonart]

8. Thanks to the complete ineptness and amateurish approach

to foreign policy in the most volatile part of the world and, indeed the entire globe, the U.S. has been played for fools.

I don't understand how our military backed this play. How the ever loving fuck was Jared even put in charge of this? It is insane.

[soryang]

9. Bolton is in Asia trying to get military support from Japan and South Korea...

...for military roles in the Persian Gulf/ Gulf of Oman related to the US administration's self inflicted dispute with Iran.

This brings to mind drumpf's off repeated lament, we will support our allies if they are attacked, but if we are attacked, they don't have to help us (or words to that effect).

This falls far short of the "coalition of the willing," formed before the Iraq war. Some observers anticipate difficulties in gaining such support for the aforementioned erratic policies of the US administration.

[Mr.Bill]

10. They did what they needed to do to get

huge amounts of money loaned (gifted) to Kushner. Anything else is just collateral damage. They care not one iota about what happens in the middle east. Just follow the money.

[Kid Berwyn]

12. Capt. Gary Sick, USN, also chronicled October Surprise.

Great book, stood the test of time, too.

[KT2000]

20. he also has a cool son

[gordianot]

13. It actually comes to Iran pushing Trump back hard.

Putin and his meddling has just about permanently sidelined the U.K.. Turkey is falling into the Russian camp and NATO is alienated by the Orange asshole. Ain’t got no friends when you might need them Donald.

Unfortunately American lives are at stake due to the thug in the Oval Office.

[ancianita]

14. I wonder if they're going to plan a "national emergency" here when Iran pushes back. Then go into

war mode, with Trump just taking over, junta style.

Like next year. As an October surprise.

Now there's a scheme.

[pangaia]

16. I didn't knpow trum had a ME policy? COUlda fooled me.

[KT2000]

17. This is Gary Sick's son

He gives talks about music to school kids. One local school had to hire more music teachers after his talk because so many kids wanted to take music.

a talented musician and overall cool guy:

[Kid Berwyn]

22. Very cool, indeed!

Thank you for the heads-up, KT2000. Through the arts of music, Mr.Sick is expanding the interior worlds of children.

[keithbvadu2]

18. Trump, August 2015: I make $40 million, $50 million from Saudi Arabia. I like them very much.

Trump, August 2015: I make $40 million, $50 million from Saudi Arabia. I like them very much.

Link to tweet

?ref_src=

[DallasNE]

19. Juan Cole

Is a trusted source for all things Middle-East and his link below covers a little different aspect of this but it too has Iran as a central focus.

Who knows how this will turn out but with so many miss-steps already can the ultimate miss-step be avoided? That is the daunting question. Having that part of the world (with all of that oil) turning into a tinderbox because of blunder after blunder one has to be pretty pessimistic. And for good measure, Juan Cole thinks it could bring al Qaeda back to life.

https://www.juancole.com/2019/07/setting-further-putting.html

[Kid Berwyn]

21. Just about to post this from Dr. Juan Cole...

'The Bolton Gambit Succeeded': Critics Warn Top Trump Adviser Has Put UK on Path to War With Iran

"By threatening Iran with 'serious consequences,' without knowing what that may entail, Britain blindly dances to the beat of [U.S. national security adviser John] Bolton's war drums."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/07/22/bolton-gambit-succeeded-critics-warn-top-trump-adviser-has-put-uk-path-war-iran