Who Will Benefit from Record Turnout In 2020?

[DonViejo]

July 15, 2019, at 6:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

Nate Cohn: “It is commonly assumed that Democrats benefit from higher turnout because young and nonwhite and low-income voters are overrepresented among nonvoters. And for decades, polls have shown that Democrats do better among all adults than among all registered voters, and better among all registered voters than among all actual voters.”

“But this longstanding pattern has become more complicated in the Trump years. The president is strong among less educated white voters, who are also overrepresented among nonvoters. And Democrats already banked many of the rewards of higher turnout in the midterm elections, when the party out of power typically enjoys a turnout advantage and did so yet again, according to 2018 Times/Siena data.”

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https://politicalwire.com/2019/07/15/who-will-benefit-from-record-turnout-in-2020/

[Cary]

1. Oh good, more handwringing!

"White uneducated voters" where?

[DonViejo]

2. Really? You don't think there are uneducated white voters?

Do you deny there are uneducated white voters?

I was watching the PBS Weekend News Hour last night reporting on the collapse of the dairy industry in the U.S. They were interviewing a dairy farmer who owned a herd of 1,250 dairy cows and discussed how 2014 and '15 were the best years for his farm, then things went downhill, Trump's tariffs kicked in, making it worse. The farmer said he wasn't sure how much longer he could stay in business but he had every intention of voting for Trump, "I still support the President, he's right on all his issues." File that comment under "educated white voter"?

[Cary]

4. Where they are matters.

[DonViejo]

5. Well, let's start with Alabama, Missouri, etc. and then throw in Ohio, Michigan, etc.

[Cary]

6. I have lived in Missouri

Don't waste your time.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Democrats benefit, without question nt

[karynnj]

7. Both will, but it is hard to say who nets more

Look at 2004, Kerry got between 8 and 9 million more votes than Gore and they exceeds all their swing state goals. However, with all the homophobic resolutions on ballots, Bush pulled out between 11 and 12 million more voters in 2004 compared to 2000. This also counters my long term belief that we would benefit more from an engaged electorate because Republicans are more consistently there for elections.

In 2000, neither side was enthusiastic, though of course both wanted to win. I suspect that we were maybe less motivated because most of us were rather complacent that Trump could not win. On their side, there were never Trumpets, many of whom returned to the fold when it came time for a vote.

I assume that some political analyst has commissioned polling to determine how many people who should have been in their base did not vote in 2016 AND whether they are currently eager to vote in 2020. Obviously in addition to this, you need to look at people who voted in 2016 and who they will vote for in 2020 (probably using generic Democrat) and how likely they are to vote. Creating the transition matrix of no vote, D, R, other in 2016 to 2020 would provide a very interesting perspective. It would answer the question asked in this op.