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Economic indicators point to recession incoming in late 2020 / early 2021.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/7/1863330/-The-poor-jobs-report-isn-t-the-only-bad-economic-sign-the-bond-market-is-screaming-recessionThe 75,000 new jobs created in May undershot expert predictions by more than 100,000. And with that poor number came re-estimates for March and April that actually cut 75,000 jobs from the totals for those two months.
...
Bloomberg reports that Thursday marked 10 straight days in which the yield curve was inverted. That may not sound like anything other than financial babble. What it means is that short-term bonds are paying a higher interest rate than longer-term bonds—because the people that set those rates are betting that things over the next few years are going to be worse than they are in the next few months.
...
“On average, it has taken 311 days for the economy to begin contracting after the curve had been inverted for at least 10 days.” And the longer the rate remains inverted, the more it signals a severe, or prolonged, downturn.
...
On Monday, the Manufacturing Index Report fell to its lowest levels since 2016. The immediate suspect for this was supply-chain disruptions caused by Trump’s tariffs on China, but even if that’s the case, there’s no guarantee of a quick recovery. And it’s not just manufacturing that’s raising alarms: Commodity prices for copper and lumber are taking a tumble. That’s a scary sign of what’s happening for big, long-term projects.
If a recession follows the normal pattern, it could come along in the second or third quarter of 2020. That might seem like an optimal time for punting Trump out the door on Election Day. But it’s not clear that a single quarter of recession would have any immediate, visceral effect that would undercut the way-too-widely held belief that Trump has been good for the economy. And 310 days after an inversion is just an average time between when the economy starts turning sour and when it’s officially in recession.
The official declaration could easily come after Election Day. That’s especially true given that Trump might decide to goose the numbers a bit by ending his tariffs, or promising another round of giveaways for corporations. And when it’s all over, it’s entirely possible that we could slide into recession with absolutely no slack in the system. With the Fed rate already at zero. With Trump already having chopped corporate tax rates to an unsustainable degree. With the Republicans already burying the Treasury in record debt. With trade relations in tatters and the biggest buyer of U.S. treasuries alienated.
...
Bloomberg reports that Thursday marked 10 straight days in which the yield curve was inverted. That may not sound like anything other than financial babble. What it means is that short-term bonds are paying a higher interest rate than longer-term bonds—because the people that set those rates are betting that things over the next few years are going to be worse than they are in the next few months.
...
“On average, it has taken 311 days for the economy to begin contracting after the curve had been inverted for at least 10 days.” And the longer the rate remains inverted, the more it signals a severe, or prolonged, downturn.
...
On Monday, the Manufacturing Index Report fell to its lowest levels since 2016. The immediate suspect for this was supply-chain disruptions caused by Trump’s tariffs on China, but even if that’s the case, there’s no guarantee of a quick recovery. And it’s not just manufacturing that’s raising alarms: Commodity prices for copper and lumber are taking a tumble. That’s a scary sign of what’s happening for big, long-term projects.
If a recession follows the normal pattern, it could come along in the second or third quarter of 2020. That might seem like an optimal time for punting Trump out the door on Election Day. But it’s not clear that a single quarter of recession would have any immediate, visceral effect that would undercut the way-too-widely held belief that Trump has been good for the economy. And 310 days after an inversion is just an average time between when the economy starts turning sour and when it’s officially in recession.
The official declaration could easily come after Election Day. That’s especially true given that Trump might decide to goose the numbers a bit by ending his tariffs, or promising another round of giveaways for corporations. And when it’s all over, it’s entirely possible that we could slide into recession with absolutely no slack in the system. With the Fed rate already at zero. With Trump already having chopped corporate tax rates to an unsustainable degree. With the Republicans already burying the Treasury in record debt. With trade relations in tatters and the biggest buyer of U.S. treasuries alienated.
The author forgot something: The Trump-administration must raise the debt-ceiling by fall 2019 the ABSOLUTELY latest. It already officially ran out in March 2019.
I think we can all sleep soundly, knowing that the King of Debt will handle the US debt-ceiling in a competent manner.
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