'The pain is just beginning': After 38,000 layoffs, Wall Street wakes up to 'peak car'

[jpak]

https://www.businessinsider.com/peak-car-38000-layoffs-job-losses-sales-at-auto-makers-2019-5

For the auto business, "The pain is just beginning," according to Nomura analyst Masataka Kunugimoto and his team. "We now expect global auto demand to be down 3%," year on year, in 2019, he told clients recently.

He is not alone. At bank after bank, analysts are coming round to the idea that the world may have passed "peak car," and that in the future humans will need fewer personal vehicles.

Certainly, they are telling clients, diesel vehicles will collapse into a small niche as their polluting exhausts are regulated out of existence. Petrol/gasoline vehicles will be next, as governments in Europe and the United States set dates for manufacturers to switch their models to electric.

But that's not all. As on-demand services like Uber and Lyft grow their customer bases, more people will decide they no longer need to own a car of their own. Why would you, when it's cheaper to ride around in someone else's?

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[at140]

3. Uber picks me up 10 times sooner

At home or work or anywhere else than taxi's ever did. That alone is a huge difference.

[at140]

7. The most recent lyft driver was

Working full time at Amazon in Seattle. I assume he has benefits there. He was doing Lyft part time and also delivering pizza's on weekends. He is going to be wealthy by age 45.

[TheBlackAdder]

8. He's working those jobs to pay for the car loan , gasoline, insurance and repairs.

[at140]

37. Uber driving is basically meant to be a part time job

So one already has a car from the full time job, and whatever is net profit from driving Uber can go straight to the bank.

[TheBlackAdder]

40. Not when Uber makes you take out a car loan, via the Uber Vehicle Solutions, for the vehicle.

.

I don't know why you are defending their practices when they were called out on it for the past year!

.

[at140]

61. Uber can not force anyone to do anything...

With 40 million middle class manufacturing jobs exported to Asia, people need extra income to meet ends meet. If only job they can find is Uber, who am I to tell them don't do it because Uber is not a good employer?

If I was really in love with Uber, I would have bought their stock when they went public recently. I did not buy Uber stock. I do my preference for corporations by either buying or avoiding their stocks. For example I will never buy stocks of any company which makes cigarettes. But again, I am not going to attack those who buy tobacco company stocks. People are free to do what is best for them. That is why I admire America and why I immigrated here many years ago...fewer restrictions on what I can and can not do.

[TheBlackAdder]

67. No, only if you want to work with them... else take a walk

[dixiegrrrrl]

12. You may not be aware of the outrageously high cost of living in seattle.

I have a relative, single, who is living in a 1200.00 a month studio apt.
I can't afford to live up there on retirement income.

[madinmaryland]

23. Wow. We rent a house on half an acre for the same price in SW Ohio.

3 bdrms and 2 full baths.

[dixiegrrrrl]

27. We have a very nice home on one acre, in town yet

Our mortgage is under 500.00 a month. Bought it in 2005, small town in the South. We even had chickens for a few years here, legally.

same house, not even on any sig. land, in SF would be around a million. Which is why no retirement near the West coast for us.

.

[SoCalDem]

43. Your realtive can share my 6400 sq ft in Centralia for a LOT less :)

but it's not Seattle

[Blue_true]

44. Situations like the one you proposed is why high speed rail is a must.

Or Tube transport like in Britain, NYC, Boston, the Bay Area. It allows people to live away from the city where they work. On top of that, they can access city cultural happenings on days off.

[inanna]

58. I want high speed rail really bad.

I would definitely use it.

I do not fly in airplanes, they terrify me.

[Blue_true]

59. You know that you have a greater chance of dying in a train or car than in a plane.

I guess the thing about dying in a commercial airliner is the long trip down. Other than that, if you fear death, don't drive.

[stopdiggin]

13. wow .. the echos

Umm. That might be a little cavalier? He's got another job .. so it's "OK" that the the gig economy is all about stiffing workers on benefits? and 2) "He's going to be wealthy by age 45." Doubt it, but .. You want to try to raise a family while working three jobs to make ends meet? Plan on spending any time with the kids .. say in the next ten years?

[BannonsLiver]

15. Sounds like that poster has come to a position on Uber

They like the service which is their right. Just as it is yours to pay triple the rate for a taxi.

[stopdiggin]

17. I ride, although not often

I DO like the convenience factor (I use Lyft on occasion) .. and I think ride hail might have an important part to play in transportation going forward (see original post). I'd like to see the day when I don't have to own a car. That does not mean that I think there is no room for oversight or improvement (and perhaps some regulation?) Uber and Lyft drivers are starting to organize and bring forth issues (like decreasing take homes from tips and fares, i.e., stiffed by the company), and I'm on board with that too. My post was an objection to the casual brush off and lack of consideration in the previous. There ARE issues here (IMO).

[dixiegrrrrl]

28. I have 2 male car-less.relatives who live/work in Seattle.

As in the down town area proper. Seattle has always had a good bus system, I am assuming they still have.

They use bus and Uber, and bikes, for transportation in the area, Seattle is a large area, lots of neighborhoods you have to drive to.
For travel outside Seattle, they find it cheaper to rent a car, since they spend 90% of the time in the city.

I agree Uber et al. is probably going to be an important mobility option.
No bus waits in the rain, quicker than buses, and maybe most important, no having to be around lots of strangers like you are in a subway or bus. Much quieter for that reason.

My kids grew up in the Puget Sound area, with cars being affordable, a normal thing to have.
but my city grandchildren would have not had that, I think. Rural kids, yes.

[at140]

34. You just described my daughter living in Seattle!

She graduated last year from law school, and works in downtown Seattle,
and getting along just fine without needing a car. All her friends who have
cars are always complaining how expensive it is to use a car to commute to work.
Between the light rail, buses and Uber & Lyft, she has no plans to buy a car.

[dixiegrrrrl]

38. I did the same thing she did.

Was going to U of W, and working not far away, living near Green Lake...no problem.

Was car less for 2 years while I saved money to get my first one.
Would have been nice to have Uber at hand back then. Seattle was not a big taxi town then, because so many people had cars.

[Blue_true]

46. I prefer taxis when I am away in a city. I know that I have somewhat of a professional at the

wheel. Plus their is nothing more rad that hailing a cabbie in a big city, I am addicted to that.

[at140]

36. The Lyft driver gets full benefits at Amazon

where he works full time. I never had 3 jobs, but did have a full time job plus a part time job for 10 years and saved every penny from the 2nd job. Result was I could happily retire early at age 57. Married late and had kids at age 51 & 53, and I raised the kids since wife was working full time until both finished college. I am a strong proponent of working hard in younger years when the body can handle it, and save all you can during younger years. The magic of compounding is beautiful.

[demmiblue]

14. Bush: "You work three jobs? Uniquely American!" (VIDEO)

[at140]

35. I never had 3 jobs, but did have 2 jobs for 10 years

A full time engineering job averaging 45 hours/week (got paid overtime over 40) and
a part time consulting job averaging 15 hours a week. And I saved every penny from
the 2nd job and retired happily at age 57.

[Blue_true]

47. Your example is a bad one. You are comparing a comparatively high level

job to what most people can get. You were a likely high paid engineer and did likely high paid consulting work on the side. How many people can say that? I am an engineer so I know what I am talking about. I was an ok saver, but by the time I was 49, I was technically wealthy (though I did not feel that was, but by all wealth tables I was).

[at140]

62. As an immigrant from south Asia, my starting wages were much lower

than my American counterparts. My American co-workers would tell me, I was getting screwed. But a job was better than no job. My first engineering job was lowest on the totem pole, detail drafting. I still remember my wages..$2.75/hour in early 1960's. So I skimped and bought $100 used cars, and saved half of my wages. That money grew the most over the years with compounding interest.

[Blue_true]

63. $500 per month in the early 60s was a lower than market salary.

You being an immigrant, I agree that back in that era you got abused. But you seemed to have made the most out of your career.
I started as an engineer about 20 years after you, my starting salary was around $2,600 per month and coming from a poor background I thought that I had found the holy grail.

[at140]

64. Thank you, and it confirmed my theory that starting salary is not very critical

what a person needs is to get a foot in the door and have the opportunity to use their skill and work habits. Most intelligent corporations will recognize worth of employees. I was lucky to be in a job where I had the freedom to use my engineering theoretical background with a master's degree from U of Iowa and my ability to write complex Fortran programs and my hands on experience having actually operated various machine tools, to computerize engineering procedures and machining practices. The productivity took a giant leap upwards for the company. At the end of my 25 years in the company, I could almost write my own wage levels.

[blm]

30. You are getting in a car driven by someone who is exhausted.

It is likely that level of exhaustion will lead to a tragedy.

[at140]

32. True dat...but traffic in Seattle was so bad, we were moving at

snail's speed. I don't think the car ever exceeded 30 mph a few times.
The driver was about age 30, and said he has no time to spend his money.
So he saves like 75% of his earnings.

[LanternWaste]

65. I like to pretend how other people earn, spend, budget and save their money too.

As long as we both realize we're simply pretending in order to prop up our narrative with fictional anecdotes in place of evidence.

[at140]

68. Life is a big anecdote!

What do we have to say anything except actual life experiences.

[JesterCS]

22. Uber and Lyft

Were never meant to be full time jobs. That's what I don't get about most people complaining. I drive for Lyft on weekends just to make some spending cash. I make on avg $150 for 8 hours over 3 days. Then again I also have Medicaid and my car is paid off.

[at140]

33. You get it Bro....

keep on it!

[TheBlackAdder]

41. Uber is part-time and they have coveted full-time slots people contend to get.

.

Sure, most people start out as part-time to supplement their income.

But those who find themselves needing a replacement vehicle, or need to get one in order to get good reviews and tips, find themselves locked into abusive car loans, driving vehicles that put lots of wear and tear on their vehicles--which they are responsible to fix. Shitty reviews can affect their driver status.

Uber was called out on this last year, how they were fucking over their drivers to milk the last dollar from them.

.

[JesterCS]

42. Ya, that's why I went with Lyft

Over Uber. It's been a positive experience for me. I have social anxiety disorder, so it forces me out of my comfort zone. Sure it's not as much money as I'd like. I checked one time and found a ride I did that got me 21 bucks, cost the rider 30. So they do take a chunk more than I can think they should

[brush]

71. Wonder what happens once Uber goes to autonomous cars, besides...

all the drivers getting let go? I still don't get how that will work with their business plan which uses drivers (who bear all their own vehicle expenses) and Google Maps/GPS, not their own mapping system, to make a ton of money without the responsibility of vehicle maintenance expenses or any other.

Not seeing how such a business model Uber has now, I doubt it will survive having to take on all the expenses of maintaining a fleet of autonomous cars. I douby they will ever go to driverless vehicles.

[we can do it]

4. I fully agree.

[House of Roberts]

2. I'm driving a '94 Ford Ranger.

It's the newest vehicle I own. The others are old Porsches in various stages of restoration. My wish is to find a lightly totaled Nissan Leaf and convert one into a plug in electric to reduce the need to drive the truck except when I need a truck.

I'm not in the market for anything newer for the rest of my life. When I'm too old to work on these, I'll be too old to drive them anyway.

[exboyfil]

6. 2002 Cavalier and 2009 HHR

The HHR went into the shop yesterday for an alternator. I wish it was as reliable as my Cavalier. We have three drivers using two cars right now. My daughter works full time as a nurse and drives the Cavalier to work. My wife and I are going down to one car.

[CrispyQ]

9. 5-speed 1990 Toyota truck with 150K miles on it.

I get about 2 offers a year for it. I never ask how much, probably not much, but I find it interesting.

[House of Roberts]

10. The Ranger is a 5 speed.

120k on the clock. I was thrilled when I got it three years ago for $1900. The only thing that was wrong with it was the front rotors were warped. The way I drive must have trued them over time, as they don't feel warped anymore.

[shanny]

11. 2002 Toyota Tacoma 4-door 4WD

had it since it was a pup. hubby wants to be buried in it (and that won't be soon)

[ProudLib72]

31. 1985 4Runner with around 270K

People leave messages about it on my windshield and try to chat with me about it at the gas station.

They are going to need to come up with some serious bucks if they are thinking of buying it.

[ooky]

16. I'm no longer buying new cars.

My habit has always been to buy a new car when I can find a dealer I can negotiate a fair deal with, and then run it "forever". I'm currently driving my 4 wheel drive Trailblazer I bought new in 2005. It only has 86K miles and runs great, so I doubt I will ever need to buy another car, having retired 5 years ago. I could buy a new car, but I don't need to spend that kind of money for the around town driving I am mostly doing since retiring, which is usually grocery shopping or picking up my grandaughter at school. Besides, I think I like the interior design of my old car better than the new ones.

If I do ever need to buy another car at this point I'm pretty sure it will be used.

[JCMach1]

18. Well, when they start costing as much as a house did 20 years ago

with matching payments...

Who can afford to buy a new one?

Of course, that drives up prices in the used markets as well...

[ooky]

19. True that

and the prices are just going to keep climbing if the U.S. dictator's attack on the U.S. supply chain to Mexico is allowed by Congress to actually take place. Anyone who thinks they will be in the market for a car in the near future, new or used, needs to get ahead of it now while they still can.

[JCMach1]

20. Leafs are electric not PHEV

What you actually want is a used Volt...

[House of Roberts]

24. PHEV is what I DON'T WANT.

I said plug in electric, there's nothing hybrid in that statement.

[A HERETIC I AM]

29. Is there an electric car you don't plug in?

[JCMach1]

45. Think I misunderstood...

Lots.of options. For myself, I prefer the Volt. I almost never use gas, but when I do need to (think road trip) it works like a regular hybrid.

Also if you want a pure electric, the Fiat is pretty good as well. I rate it a little higher than the leafbecause it has a real cooling system for the batteries. The leaf has air cooling only. This can lead to battery cell life issues in the Leaf.

[JCMach1]

21. There is also a price to pay with rising gas prices

Why I have a used Volt (2011) and a used Prius (2013)... Damn it's good not to visit a gas station but once a month or so...

[Initech]

25. It's not that we've reached peak car. It's that cars are too damn fucking expensive.

Yeah they are a necessity but when you consider that even the cheapest cars cost $15k+, and our wages are not going up anytime soon, who can afford to own one? Either figure out a way to pay us, or make your products cheaper, Wall Street. Until then fuck off.

[Blue_true]

49. I saw a new pickup truck advertised for $54,000.

I was tempted to go test drive it to see why it was priced for that amount.

For a small business, it is easier to not buy trucks, just rent from truck rentals. The rental cost goes fully to expenses.

[Initech]

52. Businesses can't afford them and people can't afford them.

Even on a lease you'd still be paying $800 or so a month plus insurance and liability expenses. Add that to a whole fleet and that cost is insane. And if you think you can afford one, really, can you share with me what your secret to making money is?

[Blue_true]

60. The secret is being able to write off the cost.

For example a truck that is used by an incorporated business can be treated as an asset, like a buikding, machinery and be written off against income. The thing about a rental is the rental is an operating expense instead of a depreciated expense, so if a company pays $12,000 per year to use a truck in five years the company charge $60,000 against earnings instead of just the $54,000 for the truck. Also, leading gives a company several choices of truck sizes, so as a business grows, a truck can be quickly changed, unlike when a truck is purchased as an asset.

[James48]

57. Well, I'm from Michigan

And I can tell you that part of the reason Trucks are so expensive is tariffs. There ya a 25% tariff on steel right now, and 15% on aluminum, and that doesn’t help.

Much of the content of a truck now is added electronics, safety equipment, and what used to be optional equipment is now standard equipment.

And import trucks as hit with a 25% tariff, have been since the 1960’s. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_tax


That’s why you don’t see Japanese built trucks since then. Toyota’s trucks are made in USA to avoid the tariff, and as a result, even GM is discontinuing car manufacture, in favor of trucks and SUV’s, which are both in demand, and have better profit margins.

And todays trucks last a long, long time. I had a 2005 Silverado which I drove until it was stolen in 2015. It would likely still be running, if it were still mine.

[brush]

53. Go pre-owned not new. Big savings.

[Initech]

55. My boss bought a service loaner and he saved like $8K off the MSRP.

And it was fully loaded too, that is insane.

[brush]

56. Right. And you can save even more if you buy a dealer-maintained...

vehicle coming off lease—2-3 years old with low mileage, you can save half the price of a new car and then buy a new car warranty from the dealer.

Been there and done it.

[AlexSFCA]

26. it's not that the cars are expensive

but car ownership is. Car insurance, car registration fees, tolls, gas, etc. In California, it’s quite expensive to own a car. Uber and Lyft were never meant to be full time jobs although many folks ride full time. It’s a convenient way to earn some extra money for college students and retirees. I never use taxi (now or before) but use Lyft and Uber quite a bit even though I have a car. It is true that they need to be regulated and I think many municipalities are imposing such regulations gradually.

[Initech]

54. And we don't make enough money to compensate all the costs of owning a vehicle.

I'm lucky because I just paid my car off a few months ago and have had the money that I normally use for car payments freed up for other things. But I definitely realize that others aren't as lucky.

[AlexSFCA]

66. yes, and as the car ages, there are repair expenses

[scarytomcat]

39. I think a lot of the young people today may never buy a car

They would use other transportation instead

[roamer65]

48. Going completely electric will not stop CO2 level increases.

It may slow it, but it will not stop it.

More humans mean a larger carbon footprint.

[Blue_true]

50. I have pointed out what you just stated.

All electric cars do is transfer where carbon is released, at an efficiency less than 100%. So if everyone went to electric cars, carbon release would INCREASE. The exception to that rule is if electricity comes from solar or wind.

The one advantage transfer of carbon release presents is that the carbon can be technically scrubbed from the effluent (though at a large cost) and sequestered.

[brush]

51. If you have to take Uber or Lyft everywhere, it's not so cheap even if...

you go the multiple passenger route. I know as I've had to go to multiple doctor appointments in a week and it gets pricey. And that's just to appointments. To run errands like grocery shopping or to the bank, P.O. and other typical errands, that's even more dollars.

If you drive your own car you're not paying those 7,8,9,10,11, 12 dollars fees both ways. If you don't have a car payment, who's to say it's cheaper? And then if commuting is involved, forget it.

[apnu]

69. Uber and Lyft exist and are viable because of public transportation failures

Failures of vision, failures of management, and political hatred of it from the Republican Party.

With taxis, mileage varies. The medallion system is a huge gatekeeper to the industry, one that crushes operators. Plus the smaller the metropolis, or further from the metropolis there is a precipitous drop off of taxi service and little to no public transportation options, forget reliability.

Our national transportation system is a joke, and regional transportation varies wildly. Look at LA vs NYC. Look at Chicago, who's got a great train system, but it design has not been updated in over 100 years.

So there's a gap in service that Uber and Lyft are filling, this is by design. Conservatives want public anything destroyed and its remains transferred to them. This means public transportation is trying to survive with both hands behind its back. I'm counting taxis in this as well.

And Uber, at least, is taking its billions and investing in autonomous vehicles. Uber drivers are literally financing their obsolescence. I don't know where Lyft falls in that, but they are a distant second to Uber in this space.

[brush]

70. Sadly you are right about our woeful, pubiic transportation system.

Having to rely on Uber and Lyft, both of which take advantage of transportation gaps, gets very expensive if you have to use them for everything. And forget it if you are in rural or even outer suburban areas—the longer the ride, the more expensive, or non-existent even.