What percentage of the vote would Trump get in 2020 if he was impeached in the House?

[kentuck]

How much would he increase his present 40-45%?

Would that be enough to change the outcome of the election in 2020?

How many people would be so pissed off that they would vote for Trump just for spite?

Would it be so disastrous that he would win in a landslide?

I'm curious to how people think this would change the next election?

Is it too much of a gamble to take?

[Lochloosa]

1. Clinton's approval jumped into the 60's.

You are only going to get one bite of that apple. You better be able to convict him. And that ain't happening.

[empedocles]

2. Reached 73% after impeachment [Gallup], up double digits.

I wonder how many of he 'impeachment now' crowd know this. [Of course, there are always 'other factors']

[uponit7771]

19. I know it, I also know Red Don will never ever be Clinton popular with democrats. The "run from

... impeachment" preachers leave that little part out of the equation.

[Mr Tibbs]

25. His numbers went up because it was an obvious kangaroo court

And his economic policies were wildly popular.

[empedocles]

46. 'Kangaroo court', and a sympathy bounce helped Clinton.

traitortrump seemed to get a bit of sympathy bounce with Mueller in news a lot a few weeks ago, despite all the bad trump stuff happening a bit below the surface.

My guess is: that if trump was impeached very soon, he would get some sympathy bounce; if there was an 'inundation' of trump wrongdoing in the news,; from the Congressional investigations, some indictments from prosecutors - then there would be no bounce up, but a downward slide.

[Mr Tibbs]

47. It wasn't about sympathy with Bill Clinton

It was about the economy. Not the same thing.

[Butterflylady]

29. People liked Clinton

Their is no comparison there, so no his numbers would not climb.

[kentuck]

3. Apples and oranges...

Clinton got a blowjob.

Trump did a job on our country.

[diva77]

4. Exactly. Dump commits impeachable offenses by the hour and has done so since squatting in the oval

office.

[NewJeffCT]

7. People knew the Clinton impeachment was mostly BS

sure, it was bad that he lied about a blowjob, but compared to the daily crimes and abuses of power of Trump, which would be laid before the American people over a series of weeks, it would pale in comparison

[kentuck]

9. Exactly right!

Let the Republicans defend his crimes. Democrats must stand up for law and justice.

[hedda_foil]

12. Clinton was impeached for lying about consensual sex. Americans saw it as unfair.

If the tangerine fiend is impeached it will be for multiple violations of his oath of office AT A MINIMUM. His misdeeds will be laid on the line before the American people. It would kill him with the middle of the road voters and show the Republicans in Congress for the hypocrites they are. It is completely different from Clinton and would elect Dems across the board by huge majorities by showing them as upholding the Constitution instead of being wimps. Otherwise it's all just political posturing as far as the middle is concerned and beyond disappointing cowardice to our base.

[uponit7771]

20. +1, ... and Clinton was popular with republicans at that time where Red Don will NEVER EVER be as

... popular with democrats as Clinton was with republicans.

[uponit7771]

18. *** RED DON WILL NEVER EVER EVER BE AS POPULAR WITH DEMOCRATS AS CLINTON WAS WITH REPUBLICANS***

The "don't impeach him now" shtick is worn at best

[Fiendish Thingy]

37. Absolutely no concrete evidence this would happen w/Trump Nt.

[flotsam]

5. I don't even care

sometime recently I crossed that point. There's morally right or there is cowardice and I've had a bellyfull of the latter. I can no longer be a good German.

[kentuck]

6. I think a lot of people are going to cross that point.

Cowardice cannot be defended for much longer.

[flotsam]

8. Thanks Kentuck.

I have to say I hope you are right.

[kentuck]

10. I think the Democrats will impeach if the evidence comes out.

Idon't see that they have much choice.

[uponit7771]

21. THIS !!!!

[DontBooVote]

35. THIS right f@&cking here! I've had a bellyfull of the cowardice myself!

[sarisataka]

11. It would be a huge gamble

Can we get the votes in the House for impeachment? Absolutely
Will there be enough overwhelming evidence so enough Republicans in the Senate vote to convict that he is removed from office? The odds are infinitesimal

The question then is how would that affect the 2020 election?

My opinion, based on nothing more than gut feeling, is that a motivated Republican base would outnumber demoralized Democrats enough that they would win the Presidency both in popular vote and Electoral. I suspect it would carry over into Congress so they would gain in the Senate and retake a slim majority in the House.

Impeachment would make a strong statement but have major repercussions for the next 2-4 years IMO.

[hedda_foil]

13. Dems would rather have a strong statement and would turn out in droves.

Democratic cowardice in the face of evil will disillusion Dems and show our politicians as cowards who will blather about values but not follow throug.

[uponit7771]

22. No it wouldn't Clinton was popular with republicans at that time. Red Don will NEVER EVER be that po

... popular with democrats or even the indes

[sarisataka]

32. I am not considering a single

Democrat voting for him. I envision very small change.
Just 5% more Republicans turning out, motivated by a failed impeachment trial. Couple that with 5% of voters against him choosing to not vote, discouraged by his "exoneration", twice, and we have four more years with a clear cut victory.

[uponit7771]

38. So Red Don will have more % of votes from republicans than RayGun?! No, He'd have to pull from

... an Obama 2012 pool of democrats, that's not happening.

Trump got less votes than rMoney, it wasn't dems that went republican in 2016 its dems who didn't vote at all or voted 3rd party.

Clinton under performed with democrats from 2012

[GulfCoast66]

14. Impeachment without conviction will guarantee re-election.

My opinion. Others may disagree.

He is going to be hard to beat regardless.

[kentuck]

15. Where do you think he might get the votes?

Or where will the Democrats lose the votes?

I am trying to think of this realistically. I do not see Republicans rushing to defend Trump, the criminal. And I do not see Democrats sitting out the election just because Republicans refuse to convict?

Where are these votes going to come from?

[GulfCoast66]

16. Well, the same ones that elected him in 16.

I saw this play out in Florida last year.

We nominated a candidate who perfectly fit our base and could have won the general. But Bernie Sanders held a much publicized rally for him and he was tagged as a socialist from then on. And to win the primary, he of course embraced it. Ironically, that was not needed at all.

Gwen Graham, in my opinion, would have won the general. Of course, that is just my opinion. As would Gillum had he publicly rejected the support of a self avowed Socialist. I say this as s Social Democrat. But I have been in Florida for 32 years

And I think this is a reflection of the Democratic base nationwide. I fear we support things many Americans don’t, and will nominate a candidate who reflects our views, but can’t get elected.

In my opinion, which may be wrong, if we elect a candidate that supports a system that destroys employer-based healthcare, we will lose horribly. And right now it seems that supporting Medicare for all is a requirement.

[Fiendish Thingy]

43. I think if Congress acts aggressively, quickly, definitively

It could fire up the young voters and increase turnout.

[uponit7771]

23. This is false on its face, it wont even increase the chances seeing Red Don is unpopular with Indies

... and democrats and Clinton was neither for those two groups.

[Rstrstx]

17. The one reason to start impeachment proceedings is to get the Mueller report

If William Barr won't let Congress see it then let the games begin.

From the tone of Barr's first letter it almost sounded like Mueller was trying to hint that his report was meant more for Congress to take up Trump's potential misdoings instead of using the court system. I wish the House would quit dilly-dallying and playing footsies with Barr, he's a useless hack, and get Mueller in there to testify.

If the House gets the full Mueller report or Mueller himself says there's not much there then forget about impeachment, it would look political, the Senate would fail to convict and Trump would take it as total exoneration.

So if that's the case, it'd be better to just keep up the drumbeat of corruption and wrongdoings coming out of the other committees and keep the drip drip drip scandals going. If the Republicans whine and complain we have a one-word response: "Benghazi". Payback's a bitch. Between that and SDNY and a few whistleblowers I think the message will be clear that he's too corrupt for a second term. A failed impeachment conviction would be an unforced error on our part.

On the other hand if the Mueller report is considerably worse than the rosy picture Barr is giving us then yes, full steam ahead. And then impeach Barr too while we're at it. The Senate would still probably fail to convict but if the evidence is bad then it would tarnish the Senate Republicans and both they and Trump would still take a hit.

[uponit7771]

24. THIS !!!! The excuse of handing Red Don a win is fallacious at best. Clinton was popular with ...

... republicans and indies at the time of his impeachment Red Don will be neither.

[beachbum bob]

26. depends on the evidence presented in the impeachment hearing for the articles of impeachment

more than anything else...I don't see any support INCREASING for trump at all

[rampartc]

27. impeachment, without conviction, might get him to 60% in the electoral college

in the other hand, impeachment hearings live on c span and featuring as many of his accomplices as it takes, never actially calling for a vote, might be useful.

all it will take to get his tax returns is to open impeachment hearings. that might be enough to make him, and his party, squirm.

[Vinca]

28. I'm really worried the people who don't follow things like we do would have sympathy for him.

In addition, the story would overwhelm the media from now until the election and Trump would, once again, dominate coverage in the same way he did in 2016 just by being an asshole. Our candidate has to have equal coverage if we expect to overcome the noise machine. In the end, I would rather have Trump lose an election and face immediate indictment rather than risk the results of a failed impeachment. Unless the pee tape or other super charged revelation happens, the Republicans in the Senate are going to remain servile cowards. They put self over party and party over country, so they'll vote against impeachment to keep their pockets lined.

[uponit7771]

40. He'd need approval from democrats and indies, both hate him to the nth degree

[anarch]

30. my guess would be: about the same percentage as if he were not

And/or whatever percentage it takes in key states to win the electoral college vote, even if the popular vote has him down by 30 or 40 million votes nationally or something.

I think it's incumbent on Congress to impeach the bastard, even if it doesn't result in him being removed from office (it won't; the Republican Senate is all-in on this ghastly piece of shit...they are the only ones at this point with the supposed authority to combat abuse of power by the executive branch, and obviously instead of doing their sworn constitutional duty, they have sold out the country)...why the fuck do we even have laws if the rich assholes of the world can just thumb their nose at them entirely? It's a terrible precedent, and in my opinion if the "authorities" in this case just let everything slide, that's basically the end of the U.S. as any kind of cohesive nation.

Fuck it, if that's how it is, why shouldn't I just go rob my neighbor's house if I can get away with it? Why shouldn't I just kill people and take their stuff, if I can manage to do so without being caught? If we collectively don't care, and especially if those in power, those "authorities" who are supposed to uphold the law, decide instead to just ignore it when convenient for their personal objectives, then there is no law anymore; nobody has any rights unless they can physically overcome whatever is opposing their will, in which case they have the same "rights" that, say, a grizzly bear has with respect to whatever he wants to eat out there in the woods--i.e., it's just a fight for survival, and "society" is pretty much done with.

[many a good man]

31. All about turnout

Impeachment would likely increase turnout of his base, but the truths uncovered may educate low-information voters and increase turnout for Democrats.

Call Trump's bluff and initiate impeachment to get the full unredacted report. I believe Congress has a Constitutional obligation to press for this. It it is as bad as we think it will be hard for Republicans to defend.

[kentuck]

34. In my opinion...

He would continue to get his base of voters, about 28-30%, but many Republicans that voted for him the last time would not vote for him if his many criminal adventures were exposed by impeachment. In my opinion, he would get less votes than the last time, if he is impeached.

No large masses are going to unite behind indecent asshole. It's an unfounded fear.

[Bettie]

33. I'd argue that continuing to set deadlines that

Agent Orange's minions won't meet (tax returns, Mueller report) and then setting new deadlines....which they won't meet, then moving the date farther down the road to other deadlines that will come and go, going to court, knowing full well that they won't comply with court orders, and wash/rinse/repeat over and over will demoralize our side.

Seeing that nothing can get through, nothing changes, because our side doesn't have the will to actually do anything but make ineffectual demands that everyone knows will be defied...how does this help us?

But, I also am pretty sure that the "leave Trump alone" crowd will ultimately win on this, there won't be any consequence for any of his behavior which will tell the politically uninformed that he is utterly innocent of everything and has been picked on by the meanies on the left.

That will be super helpful.

[kentuck]

36. You make some very good points.

We should not take the Democratic voters for granted.

[Fiendish Thingy]

42. No more deadlines- action!

If the April 23rd deadline is not met, Congress should make criminal referrals for Mnuchin and Rettig to the DOJ. If the DOJ refuses to indict, the Congress should initiate impeachment proceedings for obstruction and abuse of power against Barr, Mnuchin and Rettig.

No waiting for court delays, the law around providing tax returns to Congress is crystal clear, and the judiciary should play no role in resolving this question.

This would show Dem voters the Congress means business.

[Bettie]

45. I agree, but we all know

that the DOJ won't even entertain those kind of criminal referrals...though, Barr will likely be entertaining the ones from Nunes toward whoever he wants to go after.

I don't expect to see anything more than deadlines being pushed back anytime soon.

I'd be happy to see some teeth shown, but it isn't likely.

[Fiendish Thingy]

39. It depends on what Congress does leading to the impeachment trial

If there are relentless investigations, subpoenas for everyone in his family , companies and campaign, aggressive criminal referrals and impeachment for those who dare obstruct the work of congress (no waiting for courts!), then his share of the vote may in fact decrease- I think aggressive tactics by congress, combined with issue oriented campaigning by the Dem candidates, could fire up Dem voters, especially young voters, and dramatically increase turnout.

You need to ask yourself this- is it worth the gamble to leave the Constitution at the mercy of a madman for the next two years?

[uponit7771]

41. No its not, especially seeing the Russians helped him last time there's no reason to believe they

... wont help him this time.

[Fiendish Thingy]

44. All the more reason for Congress to act aggressively

Pass bills increasing funding to combat cyberattacks, increase penalties for foreign involvement in campaigns and strict regulations on social media, and for the GOP to take a stand and use their and Teimp's inaction against them.