A little schadenfreude (to take with caution): Trump is down double digits in key states

[hlthe2b]

Last edited Fri Apr 5, 2019, 04:17 PM - Edit history (1)

Link to tweet

For those without twitter access:

Trump is down double digits in key battleground states since the presidential election, according to Morning Consult. Here's how Trump's net approval has shifted since he won in 2016:

Florida (-24 net approval)
Ohio (-20)
Michigan (-19)
Wisconsin (-18)
Pennsylvania (-17)
7:45 AM - 5 Apr 2019

See more: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

[Ohiogal]

1. I hope that doesn't mean

He is going to bombard us with more stupid rallies full of chanting morons. Leave us alone, please!

[Hortensis]

35. Not a chance!

[Aristus]

2. My stepson, who lives in Ohio, didn't vote for POTUS in 2016. He dislikes Trump, but

didn't like Hillary, either. Boy, is he regretting that move!

[True Blue American]

3. Biden went up 13 points against Trump

After the hugging bit!

[True Blue American]

4. Did he vote

For DeWine? Same difference!

[Aristus]

6. Don't know.

His mother, my wife, pleaded with him to vote for Hillary. (We live in Washington State, which HRC carried with ease). We needed his strategic Ohio vote. He wouldn't do it. I guess he'll listen to his mother next time.

[DownriverDem]

15. Hard to believe

that folks don't get that you get the party a candidate runs with.

[Aristus]

19. Well. family members tend to be heavily influenced in their votes by other family members.

My stepson follows his father, pretty much, who is a Republican.

My wife used to be a conservative Republican until George W. Bush and the Iraq War. She is now a solid Democrat, and checks the news daily to see if Trump is out of office yet.

[Hortensis]

36. It was a hard election for sensible conservatives.

To me that he didn't vote at all says a great deal for him. And his family.

Imagine if he'd joined the hoards of cons spiraling down into corruption and outright evil with their party as they determinedly adopt twisted justifications for everything it does.

[Aristus]

43. My stepson is too sweet and kind to ever be a full-blown Trumpster.

He just wants to be so much like his father, who is a macho blow-hard who I'm pretty sure is a Trumpster.

My wife's ex-husband abused her for fifteen years. I know for sure my stepson would never abuse his wife; he's too good-hearted to ever do it, and his wife is too smart and self-possessed to ever stand for it.

[Hortensis]

44. Sounds like a good guy.

[True Blue American]

20. Mama always

Knows best!

My Son votes Democrat, but he blames both parties for the workers problems.

College Educated but angry about his workers treatment. At least he knows the Democrats are better.

[samnsara]

21. reminds me when a lot of my friends voted for Ralph Nadar...

..they didnt do THAT again!

[cannabis_flower]

24. Well, I didn't vote for Nader either but..

In my state, Texas, so far, voting for the third party hasn't been something that matters. I don't do it because any time I do it might be the time it does matter.

[spooky3]

5. Thank you for the good news! nt

[empedocles]

7. Hope it holds up into the 2020 election, hope it doesn't

embolden some Dems too much . . . with potentially dangerous implications.

[DownriverDem]

16. No way

The Dems would never do that. They weren't born yesterday.

[11 Bravo]

25. What, they were all born in early 2016?

[JayhawkSD]

8. Don't take it with caution.

Don't take it at all. Stop. Just stop. Did we learn nothing in 2016? Stop with the premature victory laps.

Do not pay attention to polls. Don't quote polls. Don't talk about polls.

Clinton was ahead in the polls. She was so far ahead in the polls that there was little point in holding an election. Victory parties did not even wait for the polls to open, let alone wait for the votes to be counted.

Do not go there again, I beg of you. I am going to post this same rant in every thread that starts crowing about Democratic leads in the polls. We simply cannot be that idiotic two presidential elections in a row.

[hlthe2b]

9. No one here is hanging their hat on anything. Can trend data motivate?

Hell yes. Can it suggest we might be on the right track? Maybe.

Does it need to be taken as anything more than that? No... arguably not even up to the day of the election.

[JayhawkSD]

28. It can also demotivate.

Accurate or not, it can mislead. It needs to be ignored.

[hlthe2b]

29. Really, relax. Very early and we do have to have some means to monitor

The problem would be if polling consistently showed him winning. Now that would demoralize and even if erroneous give Trump the means to create a "narrative" that MSM would amplify.

Right now, we're doing fine.

[JayhawkSD]

30. That's what Hillary Clinton said.

So did Napolean at Waterloo.

Read your own signature line, and try to remember just three years ago.

[hlthe2b]

31. Hillary Clinton DID win the popular vote (and may well have won the EC with less voter suppression

and disenfranchisement)... That is the issue, not the polling from reputable pollsters.

[JayhawkSD]

33. Yes, keep making excuses.

That's the best way to win the next election.

[hlthe2b]

34. Look you don't like my thread don't read it. I can post this or any other poll.

I have tried to be patient with you because I understand your fears, but you are being ridiculous.

[lunatica]

26. What so many people forget is that stealing the elections

has nothing to do with polls. Gerrymandering, making it too difficult for people to go to voting polls, throwing thousands of people off the rosters because they have a very common last name that sounds foreign, misinforming people, closing thousands of polls, and changing electronic votes is called stealing votes.

The polls are usually correct, depending on the pollsters.

The reason we won the midterms is because we outnumbered their ability to steal the votes.

[JayhawkSD]

27. Or too many believed the polls

and believed their vote was not needed. Candidates believed the polls and it affected their campaigning.

Correctness or otherwise of the polls has nothing to do with my warning. Stealing of votes has nothing to do with it. Overconfidence is deadly.

And, by the way, stop making excuses and just gear up for the next election. Winners pack their money and go to the bank. Losers cry "foul," and beg to change the rules. Put it behind us and work hard to win the next election.

[Greybnk48]

10. And yet, Wisconsin just voted in a white nationalist to our Supreme Court

this past Tuesday.

Of course their was a MAJOR computer "glitch" on election night in a key county (Outagamie where I live), where the computers went down. No results were reported until very late at night and they were emailed in, and sent via other methods. And viola, the anti-gay, neo Nazi won! It wasn't even close a couple of weeks ago. Then all of a sudden it was. Sound nauseatingly familiar?

In Wisconsin, if the Cons can't win they will just cheat...again and again.

So sad about what's been done here.

[DownriverDem]

11. Michigan here

Michigan does not support trump. repubs act as if the Midterms didn't happen. We elected all Dems at the top - Governor, Lt Governor, Attorney General and Secretary. Except for the Lt Governor, they are all women. We will be working very hard to deliver for the Dems.
BTW: I find it suspect that Ohio is -20. They are pretty repub.

[True Blue American]

22. Lordstown?

Steel Mills? Farmers? Especially Soy Beans.

[Honeycombe8]

12. The link? nt

[hlthe2b]

13. ...

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

[Honeycombe8]

14. Thanks. Cool site.

I had done a quickie search but didn't turn up an up to date poll. So thanks.

[True Blue American]

23. Thanks

Put that in Favorites!

[world wide wally]

17. Hard to believe Trump is that close

[gratuitous]

18. It's still early

But I'd rather Trump be shown as down like this, instead of up or break even. Let this be our motivation to thoroughly crush this unamerican unconstitutional bullshit.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

39. We need a repuke type third party to pull dingbat

votes.

[pansypoo53219]

32. my uncle voted for john anderson eons ago. he regetted it + i learned his by his mistake.

i know 3rd party is a wasted vote on the worst option ALWAYS.

[Vinca]

37. Average people are doing their taxes and it's not a positive experience.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

38. These numbers are SO different from the last I saw. If you look at the

graphs per state. Think I saw Emerson and RCP before...but it showed Texas approval at 41% ...this poll showing 50%

I read that trump can win with 45% approval. Pennsylvania at 45 here.

Maybe it's too early and I am not equating apples to apples?

[hlthe2b]

40. These aren't straight on favorability numbers, but rather the net. I added a link to the OP

so, you can read more about the methodology. This kind of data is good for following trends within its own tracking, but as with many polls are really hard to compare head-on with those of others.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

41. Yes, understand it's the net...but at the link, you can

Pull up, each state and see the approval percentage. That is what I am saying looks very different than Emerson and RCP. I'll pull up some comparisons.

Approval is key.

[FakeNoose]

42. This only means something if Chump is opposed in the GOP primary

We already know that's not going to happen, so ...

What's more important is how Chump would do against any Democratic candidate. However it's too soon to tell because people haven't made up their minds yet. The REAL number to find out is how many people plan to vote AGAINST Chump, no matter who the Dem candidate is?